11/06/2023
PENDING / UC
3190 in Oct’23 vs 3130 in Oct’22 (+2%)
This is very encouraging; rates are a lot higher now than last year and we saw a bit of growth in buyers.
3190 in Oct’23 vs 3050 in Sept ’23 (+5%)
Very strong; usually we’d expect a seasonal decline in activity here.
Buyers are holding up better than I would have expected.
Home and condo pending count changed in very similar ways.
CLOSED
2985 in Oct’23 vs 3540in Oct’22 (-16%)
Given the spikes in rates since last year, no surprise here.
Vs. Sept ’23, off -12%. That’s a little more than I’d expect from seasonality, but its not off much.
YTD ’23: 36,100. YTD ’19 (pre-COVID) : 50,000.
PRICE
Up 4% vs. last year (pretty good, all things considered)
Flat vs. last month (good, from a seasonality perspective)
Condos had a little less appreciation than homes, but not a lot less.
Compared to 2019: $682K (’23) vs $487K (’19)
DOM Days on Market
Increase from 28 (Oct’22) to 32 (Oct’23)
Increase from 30 (Sept’23) to 32 (Oct’23)
Both are in line with what you’d expect.
Compared to pre-COVID: 30 DOM. (about the same!)
DISCOUNTS
Essentially no change; about 1.1% off is a typical transaction.
58% of transactions had a discount and/or a seller concession. The average concession was $9400. Compared to last October, 51% had a concession with an average of $7600.
Compared to pre-COVID: 0.7% discount.
NOTES
GREAT time to be looking at new builds; many of these public companies have quarter profit targets they need to hit, so there are a lot of incentives.
Stories suggest there are more contingent offers. As the inventory builds a little, that would make sense.
Long term, things look good for landlords and property owners. A study found Colorado is short 100,000 housing units. Its’ unlikely we can build that many, so we’ll be supply constrained for a long time. That will support prices long term.
Goldman Sachs’ US forecast: 1.3% appreciation in ’24 and a further (small) drop in transaction count in ’24. I’d agree on the modest appreciation (2-4%) in Denver and more of a decline in transactions (5-10% off from ’23).
