09/19/2022
"THE CRASH IS COMING!! THE CRASH IS COMING!! OMG, AARON, WHEN IS THE CRASH COMING?' πππ
Not very likely. My soap box. Let's look at some facts. π€π€π€
Nearly 40% of homeowners today paid cash or have ZERO mortgage, most ever. The average homeowner has $317,000 in equity, most in history. π²π²π²
The average homeowner, with a mortgage, has a loan at 42% loan to value, lowest in history. πππ
Nearly 70% of homeowners, with loans, have a rate 5% or under. Nearly 25% of homeowners with a loan, have a rate 3% or under. βοΈβοΈβοΈ
Nearly every homeowner, with a mortgage today, faced the highest loan quality underwriting in history and had to document, and prove, the ability to repay their monthly mortgage payment. πππ
SOOOOOOO, if a "crash" is coming, you tell me, what will force that crash? What is going to FORCE homeowners to sell crash-level low? γ½οΈγ½οΈγ½οΈ
Not their low loan, not their low monthly payment, not a marginal depreciation of their massive equity. The only thing that can cause a crash is an economic disaster, worse than 2008, that forces mass layoffs and mass companies to close. π€¬π€¬π€¬
The market crashed 25% in the great recession. Some markets way higher, some way lower. βοΈβ¬οΈβ¬
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Anyone truly believe the next one will be worse than that? Even if you do, there are already home sellers choosing to discount 10-20%. βοΈβοΈβοΈ
You aren't buying "the market," You are buying a house. Go get your "crash-level 10-20% discount" from a highly-motivated seller. They are out there. π π π
AND, if you are still afraid? Rents are at an all-time high.
Blackstone just raised $50 billion to buy real estate at a discount. They have paused some of their weakest markets but they couldn't care less about appreciation, depreciation or "crashes." They care only about income/cash flow. πππ
Follow Blackstone, a $112 billion company, and buy an investment home instead of a home to live in.
Let's be honest. The "best time to buy a house" was XX years ago. It's always in hindsight. There's never a "good time." Don't listen to others, especially "experts." π§π§π§
No one knows what rates nor the housing market will do next week, let alone next year. Do your own research and do what's best for you and your family. π¨βπ©βπ§βπ§π¨βπ©βπ¦βπ¦π¨βπ©βπ§βπ¦
