02/25/2026
The housing market isn’t resetting — it’s recalibrating. And the data is starting to reflect real momentum.
📊 Affordability is now at a 4-year high.
According to the National Association of Realtors, if 30-year fixed mortgage rates settle around 6%, an estimated 5.5 million more households could afford to buy — with roughly 10% of them expected to transact within the next 12–18 months.
Let’s be clear: we are not going back to pre-COVID interest rates.
That would require extreme changes like:
• Home prices dropping dramatically
• Household incomes surging far beyond current trends
• Mortgage rates returning near historic lows around 2%
That’s not realistic.
But progress? Progress is happening.
Buyer psychology is shifting. After years on the sidelines, many buyers are adjusting expectations while life events continue to drive real moves — relocations, growing families, downsizing, and career changes don’t wait for perfect rates.
At the same time:
🏡 Inventory is making a comeback after historic lows
📈 More homes are projected to sell than in the past two years
🔒 Over half of homeowners still hold mortgage rates under 4%, which continues to influence supply
Even in Minnesota’s seasonally tighter winter market, listings have been gradually increasing — and most experts are forecasting stronger activity ahead. A projected rise in annual closed sales could mean roughly 250,000 additional transactions entering the market in 2026.
What does this mean?
More listings.
More buyers.
More opportunity.
For those paying attention, momentum is already building.
If you’re wondering how these trends impact your buying or selling plans this year, let’s connect and talk strategy.
— Zach Walker
Pemberton Real Estate
