12/14/2023
One Of The Biggest 2-Day Drops in Rates in Decades
Today's headline speaks for itself: one of the biggest 2-day drops in rates in decades. Simply put, over the past 48 hours, mortgage rates have moved lower by a larger amount than almost any other time in our records. There was a similar episode in November 2022 and only one other episode in March 2020 (which we don't really count as "real" due to the once-in-a-lifetime market dynamics in play at the onset of the pandemic). Before that, we don't have anything else remotely close.
Does any of the above tell us anything important beyond conveying the notion that rates have fallen precipitously in the past 2 days? Not really. It's just "kinda cool."
But here's a milestone that can only be claimed by the present rate rally: Rates have dropped more in this 45 day window than in any other 45 day window we've measured. Again, our records only go back to 2007. Based on Freddie Mac's weekly record keeping, it's unlikely that any 45 day window will match the drop seen in May 1980.
Late 1981 is also still better than the modern record, but all 3 had several things in common. All 3 moves began with rates at the highest levels in a long time. All 3 followed a brutally quick surge to those highs. And all 3 played out as the financial market was contemplating a "pivot" in terms of inflation and the Fed's policy response.
The pivot trade has dominated the market over the past 2 days and arguably had a lead-off that began in November. Whether or not it continues will depend on the data, but for now, the market is more willing to bet on the pivot unless countervailing data emerges.
The average 30yr fixed rate dropped nearly 0.30% yesterday and another 0.20% today. With that, the average lender is now closer to the mid-6% range for a top tier scenario (75% loan-to-value, 780+ credit score, etc).
"Pivot" is the word of the day as the Fed's dot plot and Powell's press conference are being viewed as confirmation that the Fed has pivoted away from adding restriction. This doesn't mean the Fed has moved toward adding accommodation because that would require a policy rate that promotes growth and inflation. Rather, the pivot is a shift toward a lower amount of restriction. The fact that bonds are rallying as much as they are on the notion of "less restriction" is a testament to just how bearish things have been. Just as striking is the fact that the pivot narrative is actually overshadowing this morning's stronger retail sales data.
