01/02/2022
2021 Real Estate Market Review
Happy New Year!! We’ve seen a wild year in 2021, and the real estate market is no exception. Values nationally were up 19.5% year over year in September (Case-Shiller Index), while in Lane County we saw them up 18.7% year over year in November (RMLS). The tight supply of homes and high demand for them that are causing these rapid price increases are due to a number of circumstances.
Supply constraints nationally are caused by factors like a home building sector that never bounced back to normal production levels after the Great Recession, supply chain issues that have affected most building materials, and skilled construction labor shortages that have increased wages and limited output in that industry. Locally we see the lack of available land for residential use inside the urban growth boundaries of Eugene and Springfield, as well as systems development charges for new construction contributing to lack of supply.
Increased demand nationally can be attributed to the millennial generation aging into their typical home buying years, many people now needing their homes to serve as an office, classroom, etc, in addition to historically low interest rates. Locally we have also seen some increases in people moving here from larger more expensive metro areas to work from home.
Looking at those supply and demand factors and imagining which of them will change in 2022, national supply constraints may ease very slowly while I wouldn't expect any change in our local constraints. The demographic trends boosting demand are a long term story most experts expect to play out over the course of several years. Interest rates are expected to increase in the coming year. Without many of the factors leading to the increases in our local real estate prices changing a whole lot over the coming year, I expect prices to continue rising. I have read predictions of real estate price increases in 2022 ranging from -2.5% (Mortgage Bankers Association) to 13.6% (Zillow). I personally think we will see them locally in the mid to high end of that range.
If we see continued or increased inflation in the coming year, we may see interest rates rise faster than anticipated which we would expect to decrease demand. Increased inflation would also increase the utility of real estate as a hedge against inflation, increasing demand.
Of course these days we are all familiar with unforeseen events, and any of those could turn all these predictions on their heads!
Given what we have in store for us, we are of course here for you if you have real estate needs or questions - as we were for 25 of you who bought and sold with us in 2021. We would also be delighted to assist any friends, family, or colleagues of yours with their real estate needs.
Whatever the real estate market brings in the coming year, I hope that your life is full of joy, health, connection, and growth. I consider myself blessed to know you, and I wish you a happy and prosperous 2022! 🎉🥂
Your Realtor,
Isaac Rhoads-Dey