09/16/2026
Wondering why mortgage rates have been acting like a drunk toddler lately? Here’s part of the story. 👇
🔹 Oil prices
🔸 10-year Treasury yield (which mortgage rates tend to move closely with)
As tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns followed — and bond yields moved higher too. That matters because higher Treasury yields generally put upward pressure on mortgage rates. 😬
What does this actually mean if you’re thinking about buying a house?
👉️ Don’t try to perfectly time the market.
👉️ Rates WILL move. They always do. The better question is: What can you comfortably afford today, and does buying make sense for your life right now?
👉️ If rates improve later? Great — refinancing may be an option.
👉️ If they don’t? You made your decision based on numbers that already worked for you.
And if oil prices, Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities make your eyes glaze over, welcome to the club. 😂 I have smart lender people for that. You don’t need to understand all of this. You just need a team that does. 🏡
Chart source: The Capital Spectator