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Mortgage Rates Had a Better Day, But Still Moved HigherMortgage rates have risen more than half a point in 2 weeks. Whil...
09/25/2026

Mortgage Rates Had a Better Day, But Still Moved HigherMortgage rates have risen more than half a point in 2 weeks. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it is an extraordinarily uncommon pace--happening less than once per year on average (i.e. it only happened 3 times between 2010 and 2019). Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture, adding only 0.04% to yesterday's levels and leaving the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate still just a hair below 7.50%. This is roughly in line with the highs from early 2024 and still well below the highs of 8% seen in October 2023. Much of today's 0.04% increase can be thought of as a hangover from yesterday's volatility. In fact, the underlying bond market actually improved day-over-day. That's something that typically coincides with mortgage rates moving lower. Whether it means anything about the road ahead is a different matter. If traders knew what the road ahead looked like with any certainty, they wouldn't sit on their hands and lose money between now and then. In other words, anything that you or I can conclude about the near-term future is already priced-in to current levels. The next leg higher or lower for rates will likely be determined by a combination of economic data that hasn't come out yet and war-related headlines that could either help or hurt the fuel price outlook. Next week is a big week for econ data and every week brings new potential for oil price fluctuations these days. In addition, the month/quarter end trading environment increases the risk of volatility regardless of directional cues from data/events.

Mortgage rates have risen more than half a point in 2 weeks. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it is an extraordinarily uncommon pace--happening less than once per year on average (i.e. it only happened 3 times between 2010 and 2019). Today's increase was modest in...

Mortgage Rates Now Close to 7.5%More than a few media outlets will tell you that 30yr fixed mortgage rates are just now ...
09/24/2026

Mortgage Rates Now Close to 7.5%More than a few media outlets will tell you that 30yr fixed mortgage rates are just now moving over 7% based on the fact that Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey hit 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week. Before continuing, let's be clear that Freddie's weekly rates are a valuable resource for long-term, big picture analysis. But the survey is not an ideal tool to keep track of where rates are on any given day. There are a few reasons for this, but the easiest to understand is that today's update from Freddie is calculated from an average of rates seen between last Wednesday and yesterday. In other words, it hasn't even measured what rates did today, not to mention the fact that the number is artificially dragged down by lower rates earlier on in the 5-day cycle. In daily terms, 7% was first broken back on September 10th following inflation reports that raised the risk of the Fed rate hike seen last week. A combination of Fed comments, higher oil prices, and stronger economic data have added to the pain since then. As of yesterday, our daily rate index was already up to 7.26%. Today, it's up to 7.45%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] It is still definitely possible for a mortgage NOTE RATE to be quoted in the high 6% range today, but 7.45% is the rate that captures an apples to apples comparison to all of the past daily rate index entries we've published over the years. A rate that's near or under 7% would require additional upfront points/costs/buydown relative to the average rate quote methodology. Our index automatically takes points/buydown into account in order to capture the true change in rates over time.

More than a few media outlets will tell you that 30yr fixed mortgage rates are just now moving over 7% based on the fact that Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey hit 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week.  Before continuing, let's be clear that Freddie's weekly rates are a valuable resour...

Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since May 2024The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn'...
09/23/2026

Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since May 2024The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil prices. 10yr Treasury yields were still in the familiar September range between 4.93% and 5.01%, and there was limited economic data on tap that threatened to upset the apple cart. Now let's talk about tail risk. It refers to a distribution of potential outcomes for something that can be reasonably forecasted with a margin of error. A vast majority of the outcomes fall in the main body of the parabolic distribution, but occasionally, an outcome will fall at one of the tails. While this week's economic calendar is indeed very light, today's lineup included a report that can have a big impact on rates on very rare occasions. The results of that report were so much stronger than expected as to constitute "tail risk" territory. This is a particularly bad time for such tail risk as far as the rate market is concerned. Only yesterday, we had Fed speakers reminding us that if the economy proved to be hotter than expected, the rate hike outlook shared at least week's Fed announcement would be "too low." Today's data immediately forced the market to consider the risk that next week's data (which is much more important) conveys a similarly strong message. The result was a rapid shift in Fed rate expectations for next year. While longer term rates don't react to a Fed rate hike after the fact, they're more than willing to react to changes in rate hike expectations. 10yr Treasury yields jumped over 5.1% and the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate jumped 0.09% to 7.26%. This matches the high seen in early 2025. At this point, we'd have to go back to May 1, 2024 to see anything higher.

The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil prices. 10yr Treasury yields were still in the familiar September range between 4.93% and 5.01%, and there was limited economic data on tap that th...

Lowest Mortgage Rates in a WeekMortgage rates didn't move much on Tuesday, but at least it was in the right direction. P...
09/22/2026

Lowest Mortgage Rates in a WeekMortgage rates didn't move much on Tuesday, but at least it was in the right direction. Perhaps more exciting is the fact that the average lender is now at the lowest levels in a week with top-tier 30yr fixed rates at 7.17% versus 7.19% yesterday. This matches September 14th's rates. Before that, you'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see anything higher. Motivation came from familiar sources as oil prices moved lower after overnight headlines regarding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. There was a bit of a pull-back intraday but oil and bond yields moved back down in the afternoon following another round of promising war-related headlines. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage rates didn't move much on Tuesday, but at least it was in the right direction. Perhaps more exciting is the fact that the average lender is now at the lowest levels in a week with top-tier 30yr fixed rates at 7.17% versus 7.19% yesterday. This matches September 14th's rates. Before...

Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Start New WeekIt was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. ...
09/21/2026

Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Start New WeekIt was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates. The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday. Underlying motivation for the bond market can mostly be attributed to lower oil prices, which have been a common source of intraday inspiration for better or worse. With today's drop, the average lender remains right in line with the rates they offered before last week's Fed rate hike. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates. The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday.  Underlying motivation for the b...

Mortgage Rates Back Near Lows of The WeekWe love it when a plan comes together. Heading into yesterday's Fed announcemen...
09/17/2026

Mortgage Rates Back Near Lows of The WeekWe love it when a plan comes together. Heading into yesterday's Fed announcement, the hope was that a rate hike would reassure investors in longer-term bonds (like those that underlie mortgage rates). We also didn't expect that benefit to necessarily play out on the day of the hike itself (it didn't). In fact, Fed day threw rates a bit of a curveball--not because the Fed hiked, but rather, due to the implications for additional hikes in Fed Chair Warsh's press conference. Thankfully, as of today, Warsh's unexpected hawkishness proved to be a temporary inconvenience for the market and rates are now back to the lowest levels of the past 4 days (and very close to the lowest levels of the week seen on Monday). There's no guarantee about where we'll go from here, but common themes remain important. These include big ticket economic data and oil price volatility relating to Iran war developments. After hitting 7.24% yesterday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is back down to 7.19%.

We love it when a plan comes together. Heading into yesterday's Fed announcement, the hope was that a rate hike would reassure investors in longer-term bonds (like those that underlie mortgage rates). We also didn't expect that benefit to necessarily play out on the day of the hike itself (i...

No, The Fed Didn't Hike Mortgage Rates TodayMortgage rates are definitely higher today--the highest since January 13th, ...
09/16/2026

No, The Fed Didn't Hike Mortgage Rates TodayMortgage rates are definitely higher today--the highest since January 13th, 2025. Today's Fed announcement had something to do with that. But while the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate, that had NOTHING to do with mortgage rates moving higher this afternoon. In fact, this is very easy see on a chart of bond market movement. We can use 10yr Treasuries as a more active proxy for the bonds that underlie mortgage rate movement. The Fed hike was not only almost 100% priced into financial markets, but it had no major impact on bonds when it was announced at 2pm. It wasn't until 2:30pm--when Fed Chair Warsh's press conference began--that rates started having a bad day. A Federal Reserve that's committed to fighting inflation is ultimately a good thing for interest rates in the longer term. The market clearly agreed that it was even a good thing in the short term at first. But when it saw just how committed Warsh was during the press conference, traders adjusted fairly quickly. Why? Warsh had to option to use the press conference to characterize today's rate hike as some sort of "close call" made out of "abundance of caution" over the inflation outlook. Instead, he said the economy was strong, inflation hadn't made any real progress recently, and that the Fed needed to "remove some accommodation" from the economy. That last part suggests the Fed views current rates as accommodative (i.e. they promote higher prices and economic growth, all else equal).

Mortgage rates are definitely higher today--the highest since January 13th, 2025. Today's Fed announcement had something to do with that. But while the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate, that had NOTHING to do with mortgage rates moving higher this afternoon. In fact, this is very easy see on a chart...

Mortgage Rates Start Higher, But Some Lenders RecoveredOn average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to ano...
09/14/2026

Mortgage Rates Start Higher, But Some Lenders RecoveredOn average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to another new long-term high today of 7.17%. You'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see anything higher. That said, there's more variability than normal today depending on the lender. Bonds (which dictate rates) were at their weakest levels of the day right around the time most lenders publish mortgage rates for the first time (9:30-10:30am ET). Bonds improved after that following headlines that helped oil prices fall back to the lows of the day. A solid handful of lenders issued updates to mortgage rates, bringing them much closer to Friday's latest levels. The implication is that other lenders would be able to offer lower rates tomorrow morning assuming there are no major changes in the bond market overnight. Please note, there is absolutely no way to know if bonds will hold their ground from one day to the next. The best takeaway is to assume that there's a small amount of cushion among lenders who did not offer afternoon price improvements. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

On average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to another new long-term high today of 7.17%. You'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see anything higher. That said, there's more variability than normal today depending on the lender.  Bonds (which dictate rates) were at...

Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher on FridayLooked at in a vacuum, Friday was no better or worse than the average day o...
09/11/2026

Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher on FridayLooked at in a vacuum, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning's levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged." In terms of big-picture benchmarks, the increase officially brings rates in line with their highest levels since early 2025. To be clear, we were just barely lower than May 2025 levels yesterday. Now we're slightly lower than February 2025 levels. The intraday market movement was interesting. The bond market (which underlies mortgage rate movement) actually improved this morning even though Fed rate hike expectations increased following a slightly hotter inflation reading in this morning's economic data. This is an uncommon pattern. There are two ways to look at it. First, longer-term rates may have been encouraged by the uptick in Fed rate hike expectations because that provided reassurance that Fed was more likely to take steps to combat higher inflation. In other words, some of the upward pressure in longer-term rates is thought to have been driven by fear of Fed inaction. If this morning's inflation data was hot enough to increase the odds of action, but not so hot as to cause a material change in the inflation outlook, it's the perfectly warm bowl of porridge. In OTHER other words, yes! There's a scenario where longer-term rates (things like mortgages and 5-10yr Treasury yields) actually WANT the shortest-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) to move higher.

Looked at in a vacuum, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning's levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged."  In terms of big-picture benchmark...

30yr Fixed Rates Jump to 7.07%You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those st...
09/10/2026

30yr Fixed Rates Jump to 7.07%You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the number lags reality. Today alone, the average lender moved up 0.125% in rate. In addition, Freddie no longer accounts for "points" (additional money paid upfront for a lower rate). In other words, 6.75% with no points is roughly the same rate as 7.00% with 1 point. As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for the impact of points so day to day comparisons are always apples to apples. With all that in mind, today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 7.07% from 6.97% yesterday and 6.89% the day before. This is a substantial 2-day change and the highest rate we've seen since May 21, 2025. While some people are erroneously talking about last night's news regarding $5k payments from the President, there are only two real factors that account for a vast majority of the upward movement. The first was yet another surge in fuel prices. The second was a poorly received Producer Price Index this morning (an inflation report that contributes to the even more important PCE inflation data due out at the end of the month). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the numb...

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