09/23/2026
The DFW Real Estate Market week of September 21st, 2026
The Fed just did something it hasn't done in three years. Here's what it means for DFW real estate.
Last Wednesday the Fed raised rates. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12–0 vote, its first hike since July 2023. And it may not be the last: 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one more increase before year-end.
Mortgage rates moved first. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 6.95% as of September 17, up from 6.76% the week before and 6.26% a year ago. That is the highest reading in more than eight months, and rates have now risen four weeks in a row. The next Freddie Mac number comes out tomorrow.
Residential: stable, but slowing down
North Texas came into this spike on solid ground. June single-family sales rose 7% year over year to 8,961, and the median price held flat at $405,000, according to MetroTex. Statewide, the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center reports that price declines keep getting smaller. July prices were only 0.2% below last year. The same report also warns that pending sales point to weaker August closings. Plano shows how that looks in practice: 188 homes sold there in August, down from 253 a year earlier, at a median of $494,500.
The takeaway: buyers who pause because rates are near 7% give negotiating power to the buyers who keep shopping.
Commercial: DFW keeps outperforming
Rising rates haven't slowed tenant demand. In office, Colliers reports vacancy fell to 19.9% in Q2. That's the first time it has been below 20% since Q2 2023, with 1.4 million square feet of positive absorption. The recovery is lopsided, though. New, amenity-rich buildings are winning the big leases while older corridors like downtown Dallas still carry high vacancy.
Industrial is the standout. DFW leasing hit a record 40.3 million square feet in the first half of 2026, and asking rents reached a new high of $9.19 per square foot, up 13.2% year over year.
Multifamily is turning a corner but still faces a test. Occupancy climbed to 93.8% and average rent to $1,496, per Transwestern. However, more than $2 billion in DFW multifamily loans mature in the second half of 2026. Refinancing that debt in a rising-rate environment is where distress, and opportunity, could show up.
Why DFW keeps winning
Companies keep moving here. DFW has landed more than 100 headquarters relocations since 2018, the most of any U.S. metro. That includes 11 companies in 2025 that moved from high-cost markets like Chicago, New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Jobs follow those moves, and rooftops follow the jobs.
Bottom line: Rates are the headwind. People and companies moving here are the tailwind. In DFW, the tailwind has won every cycle so far. Buyers, sellers and investors who understand that will do well this fall.
What are you seeing on the ground? Are your buyers pausing or pushing forward?
