DFW Real Estate - Christian Brunger

10/20/2021

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices rising, sales falling as inventory shortage persists

New homes in Dallas-Fort Worth set a new record sales pace last month, and record inventory lows pushed new home prices higher. This home construction site is in Legend Homes at the Arbors at Willow Bay neighborhood in Frisco.

New homes in North Texas are selling at a sizzling pace, but year-over-year pre-owned house sales fell for the fourth consecutive month.

It's not from lack of demand that existing home sales are slowing, but from a continuing inventory shortage, real estate agents and other housing market participants and observers say.

Home sales in September were down 7.6% compared to last year, according to the latest RE/MAX National Housing Report released this morning. This report is based on Multiple Listing Service data, and includes all residential property sales, which means it’s made up primarily of re-sale single-family homes.

The median home-sale price is up 17.2% over last year in Dallas-Fort Worth, ringing at $351,049 in September.

Some of the slowdown could typically be attributed to seasonality, as the housing market typically cools in the fall, said Mark Wolfe, broker/owner of RE/MAX DFW Associates. But demand for housing is as strong as it was in the peak market in the spring, he said.

The 48-year real estate veteran called it “one of the strangest markets ever.”

“There simply is not inventory, which is the major cause for a decrease in sales,” Wolfe said. “Housing prices continue to escalate which is not the norm in the fall. Typically, prices stabilize.”

Potential buyers who decide to wait out the market may regret that choice, he added.

“Continued price increases are keeping some from buying,” Wolfe said. “My concern for those delaying their purchase – it may be even costlier in the spring. All evidence reports that to be the case.”

New homes in DFW, meanwhile, set a new record sales pace last month, and record inventory lows pushed new home prices higher, according to a new monthly report from HomesUSA.com shared exclusively with the Dallas Business Journal on Monday.

In North Texas, new homes were on the market for an average of 52 days last month, down from 86 days one year ago, according to the three-month moving average of the HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index. The statewide average pace for new homes last month was 54 days, the fastest recorded and down from 93 days last September.

For the seventh month in a row, the three-month moving average for a new home in DFW topped $400,000, averaging $433,882 in September and $425,751 in August. The average new home price was higher in all four of the state's major new home markets last month, according to Dallas-based HomesUSA.com’s September new homes report, which includes Houston, Austin and San Antonio as well as DFW.

“The Dallas new homes sales market is moving at breakneck speed,” said Ben Caballero, owner of HomesUSA.com. “Builders are building homes as fast as they can, but record low inventory continues to push prices higher.”

It’s not just a Texas shortage, Caballero noted.

Between 1959 and 2007, the U.S. built an average of 1.1 million single-family U.S. homes annually. However, since 2007, the nation has failed to reach that 48-year annual average, creating a shortage of 5.5 million homes, Caballero said.

Population growth is driving the sale of new homes, with DFW adding 120,000 people from July 2020 to July 2021, including 75,000 relocations, he said.

Fastest sales pace ever

The days-on-market metric is the lowest recorded since the launch of the New Home Sales Index in 2017, and it’s believed to be the fastest sales pace ever, Caballero said.

New homes are selling as much as five times faster than they have in recent years, he said.

Typically, the average number of days on the market runs higher for new homes than resale homes by about 60 days due to construction time. But now new homes are selling so fast, builders are not listing homes until they know their construction costs, he said. As a result, the time on the market for new homes has closed the gap and stands closer to the resale market than ever recorded.

Tracking the housing market remains a challenge because the market is so hot that most new homes are not entered into the MLS, he said. The HomesUSA.com report uses the MLS data, though, because it is the most accurate and timely new home sales data available, he said.

Local MLS data shows new home sales continue to fall but that is likely a result of limited MLS inventory and not because builders are actually selling fewer homes, according to Caballero. The three-month moving average for new sales in DFW was 943 last month versus 991 in August. Total home sales as recorded by local MLSs declined statewide and in DFW, Houston and San Antonio individually. Austin’s three-month moving average for new sales ticked up.

MLS data indicates DFW pending new home sales are rebounding, which may forecast the market is moving more toward supply and demand balance, Caballero said.

The three-month moving average of pending new home sales for Dallas-Fort Worth in September was 1,343 versus 1,113 in August. Still, putting these numbers in perspective, Caballero said that pending sales in Dallas-Fort Worth totaled 2,056 a year ago in September.

Dallas Business Journal

05/27/2021

Do you want a swimming pool? Well, you’re probably well aware that the real estate market is more competitive than ever (due to low inventory, among other things).

Still, it’s not a bad time to buy a house. Mortgage rates are low, home values are on the rise and, in many cases, buying is still more affordable than renting.

Are you considering purchasing a house in today’s fast-paced market? Here are five tips that can help.

Get preapproved. Applying for a mortgage preapproval is critical in a competitive market. Not only can it give you a good price range to shop in, but it can also help sellers feel more confident in your offers (and maybe even choose yours over others).

Be flexible. If you can be flexible on your closing date or willing to waive a contingency or two, it will often work in your favor. Sellers are looking for the easiest, most lucrative sale in most cases. We can discuss what makes sense for you when the time comes.

Make a decent earnest money deposit. Earnest money deposits are “good faith” deposits that indicate how serious you are about a home purchase. A larger deposit may help your offer stand out.

Be prepared to bid more than the asking price. Consider searching in a lower-than-maximum price range so that you have room to bid upward if necessary. In many cases, you’ll need to increase your bid to compete with other buyers, so maxing out your budget from the start probably isn’t the best strategy.

Be patient (but stay alert). In the current conditions, you may not find what you’re looking for immediately. On the other hand, things could start moving quickly at any time. To find success, remember that communication and flexibility are key.

It can be challenging to buy a house in today’s market — but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Reach out today if you need assistance.

05/25/2021

FYI, 2nd Quarter Builder Commission (%) percentages, as provided by DFW Builders, to licensed Real Estate Buyer Agents.
3 Altura
3 American Legend
3 Ashton Woods
2 Beazer
3 Bloomfield
3 Britton
1 CB Jeni
2 Centex
3 Chesmar
4 Coventry
$7,000 Darling
3 David Weekley
3 DR Horton
3 Drees
3 First Texas
3 Gehan
3 Grand
3 Highland
2 History Maker
3 Impresson
3 K. Hovnanian
2 KB Homes
3 Landon
1 Lennar
2 LGI
3 M/I Homes
3 Megatel
2 Meritage
3 Noble Classic
2 Normandy
3 Our Country
3 Pacesetter
3 Perry
2 Pulte
3 Sandlin
3 Shaddock
$7,000 Taylor Morrison
2 Toll Brothers
2 Trophy
1 Village Builder by Lennar

Credit:
REMAX DFW Associates (Super Agent) Wendy Hulkowich & Network.

04/29/2021

Saw that a colleague had listed this home here in Flower Mound, TX today. Beautiful! Wanna see it? Contact me for a tour.

04/29/2021

The number of new homes hitting the market across the United States is up from one week ago, but not so in the DFW market. In fact, the severe shortage of homes for sale in Dallas-Fort Worth shows no sign of a resolution. In the Dallas area, home listings are down almost 70% from one year ago with only 6,000 homes active on the market the last day of March. That trend of depletion is expected to continue.

04/26/2021

Is the housing inventory crisis almost over?

Study shows surge of new listings could lessen frustrations for homebuyers

The housing market has been experiencing an inventory crisis as homebuyers are buying more homes than are available for sale. Horror stories are mounting of buyers paying thousands…even hundreds of thousands above asking price. But an incoming surge of new real estate listings could change today’s inventory crisis. New data in Zillow’s Monthly Market Report suggests the inventory crunch bedeviling home searchers may be starting to turn around as record appreciation of home values makes it more enticing to sell. Although continued demand for homes pushed total for-sale inventory down 1.1 percent in March, the monthly decline was the smallest seen since July, Zillow’s report shows. That’s thanks to a rush of new inventory (rising 30 percent from late February to late March), which signals sellers are following the traditional pattern of listing their homes in spring. Over the three months, inventory has dropped by about 8 percent each month. Zillow economists forecast 6.4 million homes will sell in 2021 – up 13.5 percent from 2020 and the strongest year for sales since 2006 – and expect home values to rise 10.4 percent over the next 12 months.

Inman News, April 21, 2021

04/26/2021

Existing-home sales hit 7-month low on record prices, tight inventory

Sales fell 3.7% month over month in March

Existing-home sales slumped to a seven-month low in March as record prices and tight inventories limited purchases. The number of contracts closed fell 3.7% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.01 million, from an upwardly revised 6.24 million in February, according to the National Association of Realtors. Analysts surveyed by Refintiv had expected a decline to 6.19 million. "Consumers are facing much higher home prices, rising mortgage rates, and falling affordability, however, buyers are still actively in the market," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. Prices have risen for 109 consecutive months. Sales would have been "measurably higher, had there been more inventory," Yun said. The typical home remained on the market for 18 days, down from 29 days a year ago. Eighty-three percent of homes were sold within a month of their listing.

Fox Business, April 22, 2021

04/26/2021

Out-of-town homebuyers with deep pockets edging out locals

32% of all Home Sales to Out of Town Buyers

Locals are losing out to out-of-town homebuyers who have bigger budgets, according to new data. Within the first three months of the year, an increasing number of buyers, about 32%, were migrating to a new metro area. Dallas, Austin and Phoenix are the new hotspots, leaving Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York and Chicago. And the budget for these out-of-towners is 23% above what the locals can afford. Locals won't be getting any slack anytime soon, according to chief economist Daryl Fairweather, who says "remote work is here to stay for many Americans. The long-term cultural shift is disseminating money once concentrated on the coasts throughout the country," said Fairweather. "Affluent remote workers are able to get more for their money by moving from job centers like the Bay Area to more affordable places like Dallas, Austin and Phoenix.” Unfortunately, Fairweather says this means "local residents looking to buy their first home are losing out because of the big budgets flowing into their hometowns." As a result, many locals are being forced to compromise, according to Fairweather. "They're searching for smaller homes in farther-flung neighborhoods, or even dropping out of the search altogether."

Fox Business, February 23, 2021 (excerpts)

03/03/2021

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/03/01/buyers-risks-win-dfw-housing-market/

“Going to an open house sometimes feels like you’re pulling up to a party,” said Rachel Laviola.

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