11/13/2024
TROPICAL UPDATE: It's now likely we're going to have a tropical system in the Caribbean over the next several days. Next name is . This system does have the potential to head into the Gulf. Here are my thoughts as of Tuesday:
1. We now have Invest 99L (an area we are investigating). That means we get both track and intensity models every 6 hours. The center hasn't formed yet and we currently don't have a closed low. Once we get one, models will be able to output a more accurate track forecast.
2. Unfortunately, conditions look pretty ideal for strengthening while in the Caribbean. Warmer than average sea surface temps, tropical moisture and low shear. I expect Sara to become a tropical storm and even a potential hurricane. Big question is...does it hit the Yucatan Peninsula? Some models say yes, some say no. That has implications on what type of storm could enter the Gulf and then head northeast. Too early to make a call on what that could be until more models agree.
3. This is a storm that Florida needs to monitor. Shown below in the bottom image are European model track possibilities (called ensemble members). It's still early and models are subject to change, but currently Cuba, Bahamas and Florida are in the mix of where this could go. *IF* we see impacts, it would be around Wednesday of next week (11/20). Remember, look for model consistency and trends.
4. We're just in monitor mode right now. If you have cruise or vacations plans over the next 2 weeks, make sure you stay frequently updated on the forecast. I'll keep you updated 24/7 with just the facts without the hype on WINK News. Thanks everyone!
- Matt Devitt WINK Weather