05/28/2026
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TROPICAL UPDATE: My first one this season. I wanted to address some of the chatter you might have seen online. Basically a handful of social media pages cherry-picked the worst-case scenario run from the American Model showing a hurricane over Florida next week. They strictly did that for clicks, shares and potential monetization.
Here's the truth...the other models aren't showing that, including the European Model and Google. Look at the image below. The American (GFS) model was showing a Florida hurricane yesterday and nothing today for the same date. The GFS, which has not performed well in recent years and especially in 2025, notoriously spins up ghost tropical systems that never develop. It's been doing it for years. Every now and then one forms in the early season, but the majority are false alarms.
When most or all models consistently agree (and their ensemble members), then we have something legitimate to talk about. Right now we don't. If that changes, I will immediately let you know and so will the National Hurricane Center. Regardless, tropical moisture heading north will help to bump rain chances across sections of the Gulf, including Florida, over the next 10 days.
We have a long hurricane season ahead, pace yourself. Avoid internet hype. Remember, the worst-case scenario model run doesn't make it the most accurate! Please stick with a reliable source of weather information and someone you trust. You're in good hands, I'll be with you every step of the way all season long.
- Matt Devitt Weather
