08/25/2025
Powell Sends Strongest Signal Yet That Interest Rate Cuts Are Coming
Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, on Friday used a closely watched speech to send his strongest signal yet that the central bank is preparing to soon restart interest rate cuts, highlighting the labor market’s vulnerabilities even as inflation accelerates. Mr. Powell held back from explicitly endorsing a reduction in borrowing costs at the Fed’s next meeting in September. But his emphasis on the prospects of a weakening economic backdrop made clear that a cut is likely next month. “The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” Mr. Powell said in his final speech as Fed chair at an annual conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson, Wyo. With borrowing costs weighing on the economy, the labor market softening and inflation risks contained, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” said the chair.
Mr. Powell highlighted the recent slowdown in monthly jobs growth, but questioned whether it was a function of a pullback in demand from companies or a reduction in the supply of workers resulting from President Trump’s immigration crackdown. He said that left the labor market in a “curious kind of balance” that warranted caution.
“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising,” he said. “And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment." Still, Mr. Powell acknowledged that the Fed was in a “challenging situation” given that the central bank’s two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market are now in tension with one another. Against this backdrop, he said, the Fed would need to “proceed carefully” with its plans to reduce the degree of restraint it is imposing on the economy.
That suggests that once the Fed starts cutting, it will not reduce interest rates quickly or by much if the economy evolves as expected. Mr. Powell reiterated on Friday that he viewed the central bank’s policy settings as only “modestly” restrictive, meaning there is not too far to go in terms of interest rate reductions before hitting the Fed’s desired level. The central bank is aiming for a “neutral” setting that neither revs up the economy nor slows it down.
Stocks and bonds reacted sharply to Mr. Powell’s remarks. The S&P 500 rose sharply, settling through the afternoon to a gain of 1.5 percent for the day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with lots of high-growth companies sensitive to changes in interest rates, rose 1.9 percent, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies that are closely tied to the outlook for the broader economy rose over 3 percent. Investors’ expectations of lower interest rates were reflected in lower government bond yields. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to its price, fell 0.1 percentage point to 3.69 percent, while bets on the Fed cutting interest rates at its next meeting, in September, rose.
Mr. Powell’s speech is typically the top billing of the three-day gathering, which brings together central bankers from around the world, current and past government officials and academics. Mr. Powell was met with resounding applause and a standing ovation before he began speaking.
New York Times, August 22, 2025
