09/15/2026
NORTH TEXAS MARKET UPDATE📍
September 2026
Real estate is local, but understanding our market also means paying attention to what’s happening around us.
From Gainesville to Sherman, Denison and Nocona, I’m watching the housing market alongside economic development, infrastructure, commercial and industrial investment, land activity and financing trends across Cooke, Grayson and Montague Counties.
Here are a few things worth knowing this month:
🏡 HOUSING | More choices, but every county is different
Cooke and Grayson Counties continue to show conditions that generally give buyers more choices and negotiating room. In Cooke County, the three-month median sale price through August was approximately $324,000, down 7.1% year over year, while sales increased 13.1%. Homes took a median 110 days to sell.
Grayson County continues to carry substantial inventory, while Montague County’s recent numbers moved differently. Its three-month median sale price was approximately $249,000, with August sales increasing and median days on market falling to 55.
The important part: there isn’t one “North Texas market.” Property type, location, price point and even neighboring counties can behave very differently.
🏗️ GAINESVILLE + COOKE COUNTY | Growth beyond housing
The Camp Howze Industrial Rail Park remains an important project to watch. The approximately 500-acre development is planned for as much as 7 million square feet of rail-served industrial space.
Gainesville is also adding residential capacity through developments including NorthPark, Rock Creek and Liberty Pointe.
Those two things together matter. Housing growth is only part of the picture. Employment, infrastructure and industrial development can influence future demand for residential property, commercial sites, rentals and land.
🏭 SHERMAN + DENISON | Major investment continues
Grayson County continues to be one of the biggest growth stories in our immediate region.
Sherman’s semiconductor investment continues to expand, including Coherent’s announced $650 million expansion and the broader semiconductor manufacturing activity surrounding GlobalWafers.
In Denison, Waterloo Trails is underway near US-75, beginning with 236 apartments followed by commercial development. Preston Harbor also remains a significant long-term development to watch for its potential residential, commercial, hospitality and land impacts.
These projects don’t tell us exactly what an individual property will be worth, but they do help us understand where jobs, infrastructure, housing and commercial demand may be headed.
🌾 NOCONA + MONTAGUE COUNTY | An investment story to watch
This is one I’m particularly interested in following.
Texas submitted its new Opportunity Zone 2.0 nominations to the U.S. Treasury on September 4, and the state’s nominations include an area in the Nocona/Montague County market.
Importantly, this is currently a state-nominated area, not yet a finally certified federal Opportunity Zone. Federal certification is expected later this year.
If certified, the rural Opportunity Zone provisions could become relevant to certain qualifying investments and redevelopment projects in the area. I’ll be watching this as we move toward 2027 because of the potential implications for commercial property, land and investment activity.
💰 FINANCING | The payment still matters
Mortgage rates remain a significant affordability factor. Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.76%.
That means I’m paying attention not only to purchase price, but also to the overall structure of a transaction. Depending on the circumstances, concessions, lender programs, rate buydowns and other terms can materially affect a buyer’s numbers.
📊 WHAT I’M WATCHING NEXT
For buyers, increased inventory in portions of our market may provide more opportunity to negotiate and be selective.
For sellers, pricing and positioning appropriately from the beginning matter when buyers have alternatives.
For investors and property owners, I’m watching infrastructure, employment growth, development patterns, zoning and incentive programs because those broader forces can influence where future opportunities emerge.
And for land and commercial real estate, I think it’s particularly important to look beyond today’s comparable sales and understand what is being planned, funded and built around a property.
Real estate decisions shouldn’t be made from one statistic or headline. My goal with these updates is to share the broader market information I’m watching and help put it into local context for the people I serve.
If you’re considering buying, selling, investing or simply want to understand how something happening in North Texas could affect your property, I’m always happy to visit with you.
Jasmine Jones, REALTOR®
The Real Estate Shoppe
940-727-9634
https://linktr.ee/jasminejonestxrealtor