The Market Update Desk

The Market Update Desk The Market Update Desk by Scott Reilly NMLS 157524

05/27/2026

the The Market Update Desk May 27th
- The office cabana is now open for the season!
- ADP weekly payroll came in at +36k. This gives us a 4 week run rate of +154k. this has been a consistent number the last few months.
- Oil dips below $90/ barrel. This decline in oil has helped treasury yields come drop from its spike. we are now at 4.47% on the 10 year.
- Dow rises 222 to 50,684
- Mortgage applications for purchases come in flat week over week
- The possibility of a new 60 cease fire in middle east is being discussed.
- mega IPO's SpacX, Open AI and Anthropic move closer to issuance.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/19/2026

The Market Update Desk May 19th
Pistons no show game 7...Tigers just keep putting up L's

Lots in the market the last couple days

Wholesale inflation jumps 1.4% month over month (biggest gain since 3/22). Core wholesale inflation jumps +1%. Energy and downstream aspects were the main cause for both increases. Services index increase +1.2%. Most of the increases were traced to a 2.7% rise in trade services.

Japan DGP Q1 grew more than expected. China industrial output falls month over month. China fixed asset investments contracted by -1.6%.

Home depot reported a beat on both top and bottom lines in their earnings report. Consumers remain "engaged" even with elevated costs.

NAR reports pending home sales index increased 1.4% month over month, and sales were up 3.2% month over month.

10 year treasury yield SPIKES today up to 4.65%

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/12/2026

The Market Update Desk May 12th
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly rate was as forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above consensus.
Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8% year over year,, indicating that while inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, a good deal of pressure is coming from non-core areas, particularly energy.
Energy prices, which jumped 3.8%, again was a major contributor to the inflation surge, though food prices also climbed 0.5%. For energy, that put the 12-month gain at 17.9%, while food was up 3.2%. The gasoline index increased 28.4% annually.
Shelter costs rose 0.6%, the tariff-sensitive apparel category increased 0.6% and airline fares accelerated 2.8%, putting the 12-month gain at 20.7%.
The report also contained bad news for workers, as real average hourly wages slipped 0.5% for the month and fell 0.3% annually.
EBay’s board rejected GameStop’s $56 billion takeover bid, calling the unsolicited offer “neither credible nor attractive.”

WTI oil $102 Brent crude $108
10 year 4.45%
The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/07/2026

The Market Update Desk May 7th
- Tigers lose Skubal, Mize out now Valdez suspended... Pistons win on Tuesday sets up a series lead in round 2!

- Possible 14-point, 1 page memo of understanding???? could we see a cessation in the middle east???

- ADP payroll report showed a beat month over month and better than expected monthly number of +109k jobs. Health and education again pull us forward at +61k, trade transport and utilities +25k and construction +10k. Small and large size companies both posted positive net hiring gains.

Citadel capital indicates they are looking at relocating more company infrastructure to Miami from NY.

Redfin report homes sales now at 4 year high!

Challenger jobs cuts showed 83k job cuts, up 38% from March. Job stayers loose 1/10% year over year now at +4.4%.

initial jobless claims +10k, continuing claims flat at 1.77MM.

10 year treasury at 4.378% (2 days ago we were at 4.44%), Dow -251 and Oil $95/barrel.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/05/2026

the The Market Update Desk May the 5th (revenge of the Fifth..nod to star wars)
- In the middle east US Navy cruisers es**rt merchant ships through Strait. They were fired up by Iran, which lost multiple small attack boats.
- February and March new home sales jump! +9% and +7.74% each for a combined +17% increase.

- JOLTS report showed 6.87M job openings, a slight decline from February. These numbers have trended on the low side for multiple months. The hiring rate, while low, did rise +3.5%. The quits rate also rose +2%.

Business Employment Dynamics report (BED), which revises the Birth/Death model with in the jobs report was released. It showed -272k jobs created in Q3 vs the birth death model that showed +145k. This is an over representation of jobs by 417K!!!!

ISM services report came in line with estimates with an index of 53.6. The internal employment index showed a slight increase to 48 (still in contraction area). The prices paid index jumped to 71.

Dow +304, Oil at $101.88 10 year treasury 4.418%

The Market Update DeskThe Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/01/2026

the market update desk May 1st

Oil prices this morning trended lower on possible discussions with Iran, delivered through Pakistan.
Coality reported average homeowners’ equity now stands at over $300k!
The April FED meeting concluded the Chairmanship for Powell…but he indicated he will continue his available time remaining as a FED Gov, this is the 1st time since 1943 a Chair has decided to continue on the board as a Gov. The FED once again, as expected, paused rates. 3 members disapproved of the easing bias language within the FED statement and Miran once again voted for a ¼ cut.
Initial jobless claims tumbled 23k and continuing claims fell to 23l to 1.8MM

PCE. Headline +.7%, defiantly high, but with the expected range, year over year rose from 2.8% to 3.5%. Core PCE +.3%, also I the expected range, year over year now at 3.2%. within the report it showed personal income rose more than expected to +.6% (double estimate). Savings rate fell from 3.9% to 3.6%.

1st look Q1 GDP was 2%, lower than the expected 2.3%. An amazing piece of information is 1.5% of the total 2% GDP was attributed to AI data center build out!!!

NEXT WEEK IS JOBS JOBS JOBS WEEK!

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

04/29/2026

The Market Update Desk April 29th

Geopolitical - President Trump indicates the US Navy will extend the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. FED Nominee Warsh moves on to full Senate vote. Chairman Powell will give his last post FED meeting speech and Q&A

- New housing data - Starts were up 10.8% in March to an annual rate of 1.5MM. Permits though fell -10.8% to an annual rate of only 1.372MM. Another sign of continued forward challenges with inventory.

Durable Goods Orders JUMPED! headline report showed +.8% vs expected .5%. Core skyrocketed +3.3%!

Mortgage applications while flat week to week.... year over year purchase +21% and Refi's +51%

PCE preview for tomorrow is not pleasant. look for headline and core to increase.

We are hitting top line resistance on the 10 year at 4.41%

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

04/28/2026

The Market Update Desk April 28th
- UAE announces they are leaving OPEC! effective May 1! The UAE has recently pushed back on production cuts/limitations that the majority of OPEC has favored. This could lead to increased supply on the market and possibly other OPEC and OPEC+ counties wanting more independence on production. As we look forward an increase in production could lead to a lower per barrel price. This would then flow to lower inflation numbers.

- Iran has almost maxed out their oil storage capacity. They have stated to transfer oil to their oil tankers. If they cannot move some of their current supply (US Navy embargo) they will be forced to stop production. The complexity of shutting down and then re starting the equipment could cost Iran Billions.

- Earnings season on wall street continues. Coke beat expectations and gave increased forward guidance. Open AI indicated they missed on earnings estimates. As a result, associated chip makers like Intel are down.

Apartment lists show new rents down -1.7% year over year, this is the lowest mark since 2017. With shelter costs being the major component of inflation gauges, this will help.

Dow down -80, 10 year treasury yield up 4.364%, oil up 3$.48 to $99.85/barrel and Crypto enjoying a small breakout, Bitcoin $79,560.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

04/23/2026

The The Market Update Desk April 23rd
- tensions uptick in the Persian gulf. Iran fires on cargo ships and looks to again bottleneck transport in the strait. Oil tick up to $96.93/barrel, Dow -361 & 10 year treasury yield up to 4.337%.

Kevin Warsh began congressional testimony. All in all, it was a strong testimony. He indicated he would divest all his personal investments upon confirmation, and in fact indicated would start the process before he was approved. He was asked if the President demanded rate cuts, he replied, no and if he did, I would not agree to it. He made positive remarks about "updating the FED".... using more real time data (used the poor decisions of the FED in 2021-2023 as examples). Communication he believes need to "change"... the multiple press conferences and new releases by FED members seems to be more about seeing individual spotlight.

Pending home sales once again beat estimates...month over month +1.5% vs expected +.5%. In addition, previous month was revised higher.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

04/21/2026

The Market Update Desk April 21st
- As the deadline for ceasefire in the middle east get closer to ending, we are seeing oil trending up ($94/barrel). There are comments that a new meeting could take place in Pakistan, which would calm markets.

- The Dow has a down day -134 (after a very large 2 week run up). In fact, we are very close now (49,313) to the highs of what we saw prewar.
- 10 year treasury is at 4.289%, we have been as low as 4.23%

FED chair nominee Kevin Warsh begins his congressional hearings. If confirmed he would be the wealthiest FED Chair ever.

- Tim Cook announces he is stepping down as Apple CEO, he will remain (for now) on the board.

- Retail sales jump +1.7% vs expected +1.4%, much of this though was from a 15.5% jump in gas sales (increase in oil). Core retail sales also surprises to the upside +.7% vs expected +.2%. In addition, the previous report was revised up +.1%.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

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