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The Market Update Desk The Market Update Desk by Scott Reilly NMLS 157524

10/22/2026

The Market Update Desk oct 22nd
WOW!!! 10 year treasury falls BELOW 5%!!!!
- NeoCloud companies take it on the chin! Coreweave stock and bonds fall on LARGE Tech reduction in AI Cap Ex. These companies funded massive build out via corp bond issuance. With thi large reduction in tech spend there is now concern on these corp bonds. Also continued instability in France has moved more international bond money to the US. Meta down 8%, and indicated a massive reduction in Cap Ex.

- The 10 year treasury blew threw a floor of resistance at 5.04% and now is testing the next level of 4.96!!! If we can keep this trajectory we have a good opportunity to improve more on mortgage rates!

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/19/2026

The Market Update Desk October 19th
- Dodgers lose, Brewers on to the World Series!!
- Last week's AI Hyer Scaler stock and Corp bond sell off levels out.
- More demonstrations in France has traders moving money to US Treasuries from French and German bond markets.

- Oil is slightly up today
- This week brings builder confidence index, along with Permit, start and completion data

10 year treasury yield his holding at overhead resistance of the 25 day moving average 5.14%. Our current floor of support is 5.04%.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/15/2026

The Market Update Desk October 15th
- Brewers hit back to back home runs to take game 3 from the Dodgers !

- NY FED survey shows an alarming rise in family's falling behind on payments. Additionally, the amount of families with debt to income above 40% rose to 8.6%. Top earners had an income increase of 31%.
- CPI, Headline comes in hot at +.6% month over month and +3.7% year over year. Core CPI +.3% month over month and +2.6% year over year. Almost half of headline was centered in Gas / Energy.
- Social security announced annual COLA increase of +3.6%

- This morning Asian markets were down on a run on AI hyper scaler stocks....this brought a flight to safety (US treasuries)
- FED Beige book had a record mention of inflation in relation to costs / inflation

- Retail sales rose more than expected +.8% and Super Core +.25%

- Hyper Scaler bonds show pull back and move to US Treasuries.

- 10 year at 5.0892% from high of 5.34%. Oil slightly up

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

10/08/2026

The Market Update Desk Oct 8th
- Euro bond yields continue to be pressured up. Germany +10bps and France +14bps in the last 2 days
- Oil up over $104 after Saudi was hit by Houthis
- FED meeting minutes show the committee believes more rate increases are needed to slow inflation, and that employment market is in "balance".....really?? They project the PCE inflation reading to increase .3% to 3.9% over the next 12 months.

- Yesterdays 10 year bond auction went well, we do have a 30 year auction today.

- The 10 year closed below a very important line of 5.29% yesterday, and we are holding even today. It is VERY important to keep under this line as the next level of resistance is a large step up.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids The Market Update Desk

09/30/2026

The Market Update Desk Sept30th

- NY FED President Williams calmed the market yesterday with his comments "After hiking rates in September there is no urgency for the FED to hike again, we have time to gather more information"

- September PCE headline month over month +.3% and year over year +3.4%. Both were better than the expected +.4% and +3.7%
Core PCE month over month +.2% and year over year +3%. These were also better than expected (+.3% and +3.3%).

- Personal income grew by +.2% and spending +.9%. There were worse than planned +.4% and +.8%.

In the PCE the largest increases were in Gas, transport services and energy. We did get relief from shelter costs and the re weighting of Portfolio management.

- Final look Q2 GDP saw a beat, +2.2% vs previous estimate of +1.5%.

- ADP payroll was a beat, +90k vs est of +68k. Service providers +59k, good producers +31k. Base pay year over year +4.4% and gross pay +4.7%. Education/health services +55k, Leisure and hospitality +22k, manufacturing +17k and construction +15k. the losers were financial services -16k and professional business services -11k.

- MBS -15, 10 year yield at 4.29% Dow -49 Oil +1.82

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

09/28/2026

The Market Update Desk Sept 28th
The good - Lions Win! (barley), and baseball playoff start!
The bad - Oil up Down down
The uggly - treasury yields continue to spike! Like the Lions secondary bonds yields are very very uggy

- Iran proposed a 7 day pause in the war, this was rejected as it contained the same demands are before

- MBS market now down over 180 Bps in last 3 days

- Big data week! PCE inflation and JOBS IOBS JOBS numbers

10 year treasury now at a high not seen since 2007, 5.25%

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

09/17/2026

The The Market Update Desk Sept 17th
- Post FED day!
- Lions play Bills tonight....guessing a L for Detroit

- FED Chair Warsh comments after rate announcement caused concern. He does not see the lower inflation numbers from this summer being sustained. Also, FED does not believe new policy is "restrictive". They are telegraphing more rates hikes.

- New home data. Permits now at 1.4M, starts 1.3M and completions 1.1M. With new household formations showing 1.3M, there is no ground being made with demand v supply. Look for continued tight inventory.

Coality rent index shows month over month new rents +.4% and year over year +1.8%.

10 year treasury -7 bps to 4.947% and MBS +34bps.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

09/10/2026

The Market Update Desk Sept 10th
- the market starts off the day the same way Drake Maye finished the game last night.....
- China Wholesale inflation rises .3% more than expected to +3.8%
- More middle east attacks from Houthis on Saudi. They damaged oil infrastructure and are trying to restrict shipping traffic on a secondary shipping route. This has moved oil and Brent Crude over $100 a barrel.

- Sec Bessent failed to calm the bond market with his statement "I'm the house now". He was trying to address why he agreed to help prop up the Japanese Yen, by explaining he has data we are not seeing. Also, the expected treasury buy back program now looks to be $6B vs $4B.

- Wholesale inflation (PPI) rose .4% to a year over year +5.4%. The .4% was in line with expectations. Core PPI was a cooler +.2% with year over year rising to +4.2% (also market expectations).

Existing home sales fell 2% with inventory rising 3%. !st time buyers accounted to 30% of transactions.

10 year treasury now above support levels at 4.918%, Dow -323 and MBS -44

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

09/02/2026

The Market Update Desk September 2nd
- JOLTS report showed +89k new jobs posted, 7.27M overall. On the surface this sounds good, but market expected 7.3M AND there was a negative -177k revision to June numbers. Hiring rate fell to 3.2% from 3.4% and Quits rate fell to 1.9%. Defiantly a soft report.

- FED member Barr yesterday spoke and believes the FED should vote to raise rates. The primary reason is a lack of movement on inflation......yet the last 2 months reports (and likely next week report) show a definite move down in inflation.

- New strikes between the US and Iran has moved oil up and with it a jump in bond yields, the highest since Q3 2023.

- The ADP jobs report showed +38k private sector jobs vs expected +53k. Education and Health Services accounted for 45k jobs....all other sectors showed a negative net number. Job stayers saw, again, flat wage growth while job changes had a -.2% reduction.

- NY FED president Williams spoke about the bond market being more affected by economic growth not inflation. AI and data center investment are driving the economic growth. He believes the FED is in a "good position" with its current rate. The NY FED President has a lot of sway on the committee, so these comments are very important. BUT this sets up a possible contentious Sept 16th meeting.

10 year treasury now at 4.7941%, we did touch 4.81% yesterday.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/31/2026

The Market Update Desk August 31st
The weekend moved to the positive initially with a US / Venezuela agreement regarding oil. We then moved into negative territory with US V Iran strikes in the middle east. Oil move upward and caused bond yields to rise. Ukraine hit Russian oil infrastructure; they have disabled almost 43% of Russian oil capabilities.
Sec Bessent and FED Chair Warsh both will be making speeches at the G20 meeting today.

Fannie Mae released their Home Price Expectations Survey. This shows they expect home to appreciate +15% over the next 5 years. Locally though we usually trend higher than the national average.

This week is JOBS week!!!!! lots of data for the market to absorb.

Dow -342 Oil +$1.99, 10 year treasury now 4.756%

‪ 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

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Grand Rapids, MI
49525

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