The Market Update Desk

The Market Update Desk The Market Update Desk by Scott Reilly NMLS 157524

09/02/2026

The Market Update Desk September 2nd
- JOLTS report showed +89k new jobs posted, 7.27M overall. On the surface this sounds good, but market expected 7.3M AND there was a negative -177k revision to June numbers. Hiring rate fell to 3.2% from 3.4% and Quits rate fell to 1.9%. Defiantly a soft report.

- FED member Barr yesterday spoke and believes the FED should vote to raise rates. The primary reason is a lack of movement on inflation......yet the last 2 months reports (and likely next week report) show a definite move down in inflation.

- New strikes between the US and Iran has moved oil up and with it a jump in bond yields, the highest since Q3 2023.

- The ADP jobs report showed +38k private sector jobs vs expected +53k. Education and Health Services accounted for 45k jobs....all other sectors showed a negative net number. Job stayers saw, again, flat wage growth while job changes had a -.2% reduction.

- NY FED president Williams spoke about the bond market being more affected by economic growth not inflation. AI and data center investment are driving the economic growth. He believes the FED is in a "good position" with its current rate. The NY FED President has a lot of sway on the committee, so these comments are very important. BUT this sets up a possible contentious Sept 16th meeting.

10 year treasury now at 4.7941%, we did touch 4.81% yesterday.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/31/2026

The Market Update Desk August 31st
The weekend moved to the positive initially with a US / Venezuela agreement regarding oil. We then moved into negative territory with US V Iran strikes in the middle east. Oil move upward and caused bond yields to rise. Ukraine hit Russian oil infrastructure; they have disabled almost 43% of Russian oil capabilities.
Sec Bessent and FED Chair Warsh both will be making speeches at the G20 meeting today.

Fannie Mae released their Home Price Expectations Survey. This shows they expect home to appreciate +15% over the next 5 years. Locally though we usually trend higher than the national average.

This week is JOBS week!!!!! lots of data for the market to absorb.

Dow -342 Oil +$1.99, 10 year treasury now 4.756%

‪ 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/26/2026

The Market Update Desk August 26th
NVIDIA earnings later today! META settles a $16.7B lawsuit with multiple state AG's.

- Headline PCE comes in at +.2% with the non rounded being .16%! if you took .16% on a 12 month run rate we would be at +2% inflation...The stated goal of the FED. Year over year we fell to +3.7%. This shows, while we are not where we want to be, we are on the path to get there. Core PCE comes in at +.24% with year over year holding at +3.3%.
- Shelter costs showed a +.26% increase, Healthcare +.2%, Portfolio management +5.6%! and Audio/Video/photo components +1.5%. If you look at portfolio management, it was singularly the cause of .12 of the total .24% Core inflation...50%! This category will change in the report starting next month, as this is a flat % being charged but because portfolios have grown so much the total dollar has exploded. These 4 categories accounted for all of the net .24% increase. This shows while inflation is high, it is NOT widespread.

- Incomes grew .4% and the savings rate rose .4%.

10 year treasury is holding at 4.664%

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/24/2026

The Market Update Desk August 24th

Tigers looooose again!

- last week's whipsaws in bond yields gave us a headache! U.S. Debt topped $40T!!! this plus the amount of corporate bonds being issued caused concern for the appetite of continued treasury sales. In response the US Treasury doubled the current buy back program....this calmed the market for just a day. Today the Treasury indicated the buy back program will be funded via the TSA ($1T available). Hopefully this calms the bond traders.

Oil falls -$1.84, Dow +126 10 year Treasury -4.6Bps to 4.692%.

This week gives us the July PCE report and the FED annual Symposium in Jackson Hole Wy.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/19/2026

The Market Update Desk August 19th
- Merk and Maderna announce positive late stage trials of cancer medicine.
- Treasury Sec Bessent announces they will be doubling the size of their buy back program. This started in 2024 increased in 2025 and now doubled again to $5.5B per month. This is nowhere near the scale of QE1 and QE2, but it has been meet positively. Just yesterday the 30 year yield approached 6% and 10 year yield is at it high point since early 2025. Part of the increase in bond yields has come from the growth of large corporate bond issuance, some paying 7+%. These AI companies are using the bond sales to pay for their massive build out costs.

- Pending homes sale for July pointed to a slow down as sales fell -2.3%. There was a positive .6% revision to June numbers.

Dow +100, Oil +$1.90 10 year treasury -6bps to 4.672% (facing a tough 25 day MA resistance.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/14/2026

The Market Update Desk August 14th
Tigers! pull within 1 game of .500 and now sit in the final wild card position!

- Headline PPI (wholesale inflation) comes in flat at 0% month over month, and down -.8 year over year to +4.7%. A -5.7% drop in gas defiantly helped cool this inflation reading. The Core rate showed a +.2% rise month over month and a drop of -.5% year over year to +4.2%. This was a cool report despite the +6.5% rise in portfolio management (which gets adjusted next month). This should get us a -.2% factor in next months report.

- Retail sales slumped by -.6%, and was weaker than the +.1% expected. Retail sales ex Autos/Gas was also a weak -.2%, .5% weaker than forecast. Some of this drop can be tracked to Amazon prime day, which was pushed to June vs the normal July event. We also are paying attention to how Buy Now Pay Later financing is affecting total retail sales.

Dow -84, 10 year treasury -3.5BPS to 4.676% and Oil at $81.62

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/12/2026

The Market Update Desk August 12th
Tigers WIN! but the bullpen gives us a cardiac arrest!
- CPI headline inflation up a miniscule +.007% month over month. Year over year fall -.1% to 3.4%.
- Core CPI +.2% with year over year falling to +2.5%
- The 3 month run rate of CPI is a frosty +1.64%
- Helping inflation was a 2.9% drop in gas and shelter costs slowed to +.1%. Within shelter, Rent and OER +.26% with lodging away from home - 2.75%.

- This news dropped the odds of a rate hike in September to 38%. Once again, the 3 members that voted to increase rates in July are proven wrong by the data.

- July budget deficit jumped to $432B, this is an increase of 48% compared to last July. Contributing to the deficit was Medicare expenses of $103B and tariff refunds of $33B. The number 2 largest cost is interest carry. Fiscal year to date, we have spent $1.7T on debt service!!!!

- 10 year treasury falls 1 bps to 4.66%, MBS +13bps, DOW +11 points and oil down $.32 t0.

We have a ways to go to the next main level of resistance in the 10 year (4.34%). If we can get oil to settle this will help inflation and the yield should go lower.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/07/2026

The Market Update Desk August 7th
- The BLS jobs report showed extreme weakness in the labor market. For July they reported -23k jobs, yes, a LOSS of jobs. In addition, May and June reports were revised down by -103k jobs! May's numbers have now been reduced by 1/3! The lack of correct data coming from BLS continues to show the lack of credibility. Markets rely on this data, yet it's often shown to be in accurate. The FED members that notated labor market stability as a reason to vote for a rate increase (Kashkari and Logan)....guess you were WRONG!

The unemployment rate (U3) fell from 4.3% to 4.1%.....BUT for all the wrong reasons. Labor force participation fell by 264k people. When you look at the more representative U6 unemployment rate it sits at 7.9%. In the household survey it showed 87k jobs lost. Some of this can be attributed to the short-term World Cup employment. We lost 106k full-time jobs and gained 138k part time jobs.

MBS +22bps, 10 year yield down 2 at 4.64% DOW up 85 and Oil sit at $78.24

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/05/2026

The Market Update Desk August 5th
- News of negotiations with Iran and Oman to open the Strait of Hormuz has moved oil much lower and raised the Dow!

- ADP employment report showed only 44k job (vs 70k expected) created and a -3k downgrade to the previous report. 36k of those jobs were in Education and Health Care services. In fact, year to date 66% of all job growth have come from these categories! This is a direct result of the aging boomer population. The World Cup temporary bump in jobs is now receding, Leasure and Hospitality lost -11k jobs. Job stayers had saw another flat month of earnings growth (stayed at +4.4% year over year). Jon Changers did get a slight bump to +7% year over year of earnings growth.

- FED member Kaskari today spoke about the need for implementing multiple "small" rate increases.....he mentioned employment sectors stability.....hmmmm this does not seem to be backed up by the data. Remember he voted to maintain rates at 0% while inflation was raging!

The DOW is now at another new record level, +481 today, Oil $74.50, 10 year treasury 4.61% and MBS +5bps.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

08/04/2026

the market The Market Update Desk August 4th
- Sec Bessent rides to the aide of Japan....The US Treasury will assist Japan in the propping up if their Yen (currency). This comes as the Yen was showing extraordinary weakness vs the dollar.
- Sec Bessent also indicated he sees substantial disinflation coming as more real time rental / shelter costs work into inflation reports. in addition, oil receding will also help lower inflation numbers.
- Oil falls today on new hopes of opening shipping from the Straight of Hormuz......and maybe (we have heard this before) a reduction in tension in the middle east.

- Philly FED President Anna Paulson explained why she is dovish on inflation and why she voted to maintain the FED rate.

- Camden property Trust indicated they saw rents decline -3.3% in Q2
- JOLTS report showed new job postings fell -178k. Health care and L&H dropped the most

Dow hits 53,980! 10 year yield falls 5bp and oil $76.05

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

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