The Market Update Desk

The Market Update Desk The Market Update Desk by Scott Reilly NMLS 157524

06/22/2026

The Market Update Desk June 22nd
Lots of geopolitical event's happing!
- The MoU between US and Iran is tenuous...continued Isreal v Hezbollah activities press Iran to talk about closing the Straight and thus moves the US to say they will shut commerce into Iran. More talks continue with VP Vance and Iran delegation. UK Prime Minister announces resignation...they will now have the 6th PM in the last 7 years!

Past (legendary) FED Chair Greenspan passes at 100 years old. He coined the phrase "irrational exuberance" regarding the dot com bubble. He held the chair the 2nd longest of all time.

This week we get PCE (this will be elevated as it will show the higher oil prices from May), Final reading Q1 GDP, weekly ADP employment data and weekly unemployment claims.

10 year treasury rises up 5 point to 4.508%, Oil sub $80/barrel, and the Dow is up another 170 points.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

06/15/2026

The Market Update Desk June 15th
Knicks win a Chip, Hurricane win a Chip...and World Cup starts!

Sunday - A peace agreement appears to be in place with Iran. In response WTI and Brent crude oil slide to $80.51 and $83.07 respectively. This will ease pressure on inflation. The 10 year treasury is now at 4.44%, next line of resistance is the 25 day moving average of 4.21%. MBS also rally rising 18bps. The Dow jumps another 600+ points to a new record level.

This week brings the 1st FED meeting with Chair Warsh presiding. Look for the market to pay close attention to his press conference and Q&A.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

06/05/2026

The Market Update Desk June 5th
Tigers win a series (wow)!
JOBS data!
ADP, May report came in stronger than expected at +122,000 jobs. Small business once again led the way; the bulwark was once again education and health services at +57k. Wagers for job stayers stayed flat at +4.4% year over year, while job changers had a .1% increase to +6.5% year over year. the 3 month job average is +96k, 6 month average is +67k and 12 month average is +59. The trend is showing improvement.

BLS non-farm payroll came in HOT at +172k vs expected of 80k. In additional March and April reports were revised up 29k and 64k respectively. Unemployment stayed steady at 4.3%, while the all in, U6 unemployment slid to 8.1%. Leisure and hospitality created 70k jobs, local government added 55k, health care +35k and social assistance +12k. The job growth was well dispersed. Average hourly earnings grew +.3% for a +3.4% year over year.

Wednesday saw almost 900 points added to the dow, and now stands at 51,696.

The better-than-expected report pressured the 10 year yield up to 4.536% and MBS are down today.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/27/2026

the The Market Update Desk May 27th
- The office cabana is now open for the season!
- ADP weekly payroll came in at +36k. This gives us a 4 week run rate of +154k. this has been a consistent number the last few months.
- Oil dips below $90/ barrel. This decline in oil has helped treasury yields come drop from its spike. we are now at 4.47% on the 10 year.
- Dow rises 222 to 50,684
- Mortgage applications for purchases come in flat week over week
- The possibility of a new 60 cease fire in middle east is being discussed.
- mega IPO's SpacX, Open AI and Anthropic move closer to issuance.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/19/2026

The Market Update Desk May 19th
Pistons no show game 7...Tigers just keep putting up L's

Lots in the market the last couple days

Wholesale inflation jumps 1.4% month over month (biggest gain since 3/22). Core wholesale inflation jumps +1%. Energy and downstream aspects were the main cause for both increases. Services index increase +1.2%. Most of the increases were traced to a 2.7% rise in trade services.

Japan DGP Q1 grew more than expected. China industrial output falls month over month. China fixed asset investments contracted by -1.6%.

Home depot reported a beat on both top and bottom lines in their earnings report. Consumers remain "engaged" even with elevated costs.

NAR reports pending home sales index increased 1.4% month over month, and sales were up 3.2% month over month.

10 year treasury yield SPIKES today up to 4.65%

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/12/2026

The Market Update Desk May 12th
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly rate was as forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above consensus.
Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8% year over year,, indicating that while inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, a good deal of pressure is coming from non-core areas, particularly energy.
Energy prices, which jumped 3.8%, again was a major contributor to the inflation surge, though food prices also climbed 0.5%. For energy, that put the 12-month gain at 17.9%, while food was up 3.2%. The gasoline index increased 28.4% annually.
Shelter costs rose 0.6%, the tariff-sensitive apparel category increased 0.6% and airline fares accelerated 2.8%, putting the 12-month gain at 20.7%.
The report also contained bad news for workers, as real average hourly wages slipped 0.5% for the month and fell 0.3% annually.
EBay’s board rejected GameStop’s $56 billion takeover bid, calling the unsolicited offer “neither credible nor attractive.”

WTI oil $102 Brent crude $108
10 year 4.45%
The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/07/2026

The Market Update Desk May 7th
- Tigers lose Skubal, Mize out now Valdez suspended... Pistons win on Tuesday sets up a series lead in round 2!

- Possible 14-point, 1 page memo of understanding???? could we see a cessation in the middle east???

- ADP payroll report showed a beat month over month and better than expected monthly number of +109k jobs. Health and education again pull us forward at +61k, trade transport and utilities +25k and construction +10k. Small and large size companies both posted positive net hiring gains.

Citadel capital indicates they are looking at relocating more company infrastructure to Miami from NY.

Redfin report homes sales now at 4 year high!

Challenger jobs cuts showed 83k job cuts, up 38% from March. Job stayers loose 1/10% year over year now at +4.4%.

initial jobless claims +10k, continuing claims flat at 1.77MM.

10 year treasury at 4.378% (2 days ago we were at 4.44%), Dow -251 and Oil $95/barrel.

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/05/2026

the The Market Update Desk May the 5th (revenge of the Fifth..nod to star wars)
- In the middle east US Navy cruisers es**rt merchant ships through Strait. They were fired up by Iran, which lost multiple small attack boats.
- February and March new home sales jump! +9% and +7.74% each for a combined +17% increase.

- JOLTS report showed 6.87M job openings, a slight decline from February. These numbers have trended on the low side for multiple months. The hiring rate, while low, did rise +3.5%. The quits rate also rose +2%.

Business Employment Dynamics report (BED), which revises the Birth/Death model with in the jobs report was released. It showed -272k jobs created in Q3 vs the birth death model that showed +145k. This is an over representation of jobs by 417K!!!!

ISM services report came in line with estimates with an index of 53.6. The internal employment index showed a slight increase to 48 (still in contraction area). The prices paid index jumped to 71.

Dow +304, Oil at $101.88 10 year treasury 4.418%

The Market Update DeskThe Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

05/01/2026

the market update desk May 1st

Oil prices this morning trended lower on possible discussions with Iran, delivered through Pakistan.
Coality reported average homeowners’ equity now stands at over $300k!
The April FED meeting concluded the Chairmanship for Powell…but he indicated he will continue his available time remaining as a FED Gov, this is the 1st time since 1943 a Chair has decided to continue on the board as a Gov. The FED once again, as expected, paused rates. 3 members disapproved of the easing bias language within the FED statement and Miran once again voted for a ¼ cut.
Initial jobless claims tumbled 23k and continuing claims fell to 23l to 1.8MM

PCE. Headline +.7%, defiantly high, but with the expected range, year over year rose from 2.8% to 3.5%. Core PCE +.3%, also I the expected range, year over year now at 3.2%. within the report it showed personal income rose more than expected to +.6% (double estimate). Savings rate fell from 3.9% to 3.6%.

1st look Q1 GDP was 2%, lower than the expected 2.3%. An amazing piece of information is 1.5% of the total 2% GDP was attributed to AI data center build out!!!

NEXT WEEK IS JOBS JOBS JOBS WEEK!

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

04/29/2026

The Market Update Desk April 29th

Geopolitical - President Trump indicates the US Navy will extend the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. FED Nominee Warsh moves on to full Senate vote. Chairman Powell will give his last post FED meeting speech and Q&A

- New housing data - Starts were up 10.8% in March to an annual rate of 1.5MM. Permits though fell -10.8% to an annual rate of only 1.372MM. Another sign of continued forward challenges with inventory.

Durable Goods Orders JUMPED! headline report showed +.8% vs expected .5%. Core skyrocketed +3.3%!

Mortgage applications while flat week to week.... year over year purchase +21% and Refi's +51%

PCE preview for tomorrow is not pleasant. look for headline and core to increase.

We are hitting top line resistance on the 10 year at 4.41%

The Market Update Desk Mortgage 1 INC. - Grand Rapids

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