04/24/2026
Interest rates closed higher this week. The 10-Year Treasury currently sits at 4.30% which is the midpoint between the high yield and low yield so far this month. The 10-Year is also sitting at the midpoint of the wedge pattern that has been forming since March 2023. The 10-Year Breakeven rate is at 2.433%, showing no signs of stress. Bond Volatility has been crushed after spiking in March. Interest rates are right where they should be. Elevated energy prices continue to push near to inflation expectations higher, but longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.
Retail Sales, the only major economic indicator released this week, beat expectations, rising +1.7% MoM vs expectations of +1.4%.
The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday next week. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. On Thursday we will get the March PCE report. Headline inflation is expected to come in at +0.6% MoM. Core inflation is expected at +0.3% MoM.
