09/18/2020
Earlier this week the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates are projected to stay near 0% for an extended period, possibly until the end of 2023. Their goal is to provide support until "labor market conditions return to the maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time.”
The second half of their statement is very telling. Fed parlance translated, it means they will tolerate higher inflation (prices going up) for an unknown duration. What does this mean for the housing market?
Generally low interest rates will push housing prices higher. Couple that with fewer homes for sale on the market and building material delays for new construction -- we can really see an accelerated increase in the prices of homes.
The graph shown is from FRED's research, which charts quarterly housing prices for Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA from 2000 - (Q1) 2020. Areas highlighted in red are periods of recession and we can see that during the past two recessions, Austin's housing prices stayed relatively stable.
However, at the far right you can see there's a sharp increase in home prices during the first 3 months of 2020, which again is a combination of less homes available for sale, supply chain disruption, and low interest rates.
On recent buy side transactions in entry and middle level homes, we've been in multiple offer situations with sales closing above asking price. This kind of activity is completely unheard of during a recession!
So what's the take away from all of this?
Housing demand in Austin will remain strong as companies and families continue to relocate here. The adoption of "work from home" policies is also increasing desire for more space, and people are making the leap into homeownership if they can afford to. High demand, low inventory, and low interest rates will result in home prices going up.
If you've been considering homeownership, don't get discouraged by increasing prices. As a dual licensed Mortgage Loan Officer and Real Estate agent, I can provide a seamless home buying experience AND save you money on your purchase. Reach out to me and let me show you how I can help.