09/15/2026
đ Mortgage rates have moved above 7%, oil prices have surged, and long term interest rates are near levels we havenât seen in almost 20 years.
Whether you are looking to buy a home, sell a home, refinance, or invest in real estate, this matters.
Interest rates affect affordability, buyer demand, monthly payments, property values, cash flow, and the decisions people make in real estate.
So what exactly is happening?
Mortgage News Dailyâs national benchmark for a top tier 30 year fixed mortgage finished September 15 at approximately 7.22%.
On September 1, that same benchmark was approximately 6.89% (it was 5.99% in February 2026)
That is an increase of about 0.33 percentage points in only two weeks.
For a buyer, that can mean a noticeably higher monthly payment on the exact same house.
For a seller, it can mean fewer buyers are able or willing to qualify at your asking price.
For an investor, it can change cash flow, DSCR, leverage, refinance proceeds, and the maximum price you can afford to pay for a property.
So why did rates move higher?
There are three big things I am watching.
INFLATION
August consumer prices increased 0.4% for the month, leaving overall inflation at 3.4% over the past year.
Core inflation, which removes food and energy, was 2.4% annually.
Producer prices also increased 0.4% in August and were 5.4% higher than a year earlier.
Why does that matter?
Higher inflation makes money worth less in the future.
When investors believe inflation may stay elevated, they generally demand a higher return for lending money over long periods of time.
That can push bond yields higher.
And when bond yields rise, mortgage rates often rise with them.
OIL AND ENERGY PRICES
Oil has become a major part of the story again.
Brent crude reached approximately $108.75 per barrel.
You might wonder what oil has to do with your mortgage.
Quite a bit.
Energy costs touch transportation, shipping, manufacturing, construction, food, utilities, and many of the products we use every day.
If energy gets more expensive, businesses have higher costs.
Some of those costs eventually get passed along to consumers.
That can create more inflation.
And more inflation can make lower interest rates harder to achieve.
THE 10 YEAR TREASURY
This may be the most important number to understand if you want to follow mortgage rates.
The 10 Year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.04%, which is around levels we have not seen since 2007.
Mortgage rates do not equal the 10 Year Treasury.
But they tend to move in the same general direction.
đ When Treasury yields move higher, mortgage rates usually face pressure higher.
đ When Treasury yields move lower, mortgage rates generally have more room to improve.
This is also why one of the biggest mortgage myths needs to be cleared up.
The Federal Reserve does not directly set 30 year mortgage rates.
The Fed controls an important short term interest rate.
Mortgage rates are primarily driven by the bond market and mortgage backed securities market.
That is why mortgage rates can move significantly before the Federal Reserve ever changes its rate.
Tomorrow, September 16, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision.
A 0.25 percentage point increase is widely expected.
But the decision itself may not be the most important part.
The market will also be listening very carefully to what the Fed says about what comes next.
Are they still concerned about inflation?
Are rising energy prices changing their outlook?
Could additional rate increases be necessary?
Those answers can move the bond market and ultimately affect mortgage rates.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IF YOU ARE BUYING A HOME?
Higher rates can make the monthly payment on the home you want more expensive.
But there is another side to it.
Higher rates can reduce the number of competing buyers in the market.
That may create more negotiating power.
A home that might have received multiple offers in a lower rate environment could sit longer.
That can create opportunities to negotiate the sales price, seller concessions, closing costs, or other terms.
So I would not automatically assume that higher rates mean you should stop looking.
The question is whether the overall deal still makes sense.
WHAT IF YOU ARE SELLING A HOME?
Higher rates can reduce affordability.
When affordability drops, buyer demand can slow.
When demand slows, homes may take longer to sell.
And if that slowdown continues, it can put downward pressure on prices in some markets.
That does not mean every home is suddenly worth less.
Real estate is local.
Inventory matters.
Neighborhood matters.
Price point matters.
Condition matters.
But if you are selling, you need to understand that a buyer looking at your home today may be qualifying for a substantially different monthly payment than that same buyer would have had only a few weeks ago.
That can affect how aggressively a property should be priced and how flexible a seller may need to be.
WHAT IF YOU ARE A REAL ESTATE INVESTOR?
This is where financing becomes even more important.
Interest rates affect cash flow.
They affect DSCR.
They affect leverage.
They affect refinance proceeds.
They affect exit strategy.
And they can absolutely affect the maximum price you should be willing to pay for a property.
A deal that works at one interest rate may not work at another.
But the opposite can also be true.
A higher rate environment can create buying opportunities if fewer buyers are competing for properties and sellers become more negotiable.
That is why I always want to look at the entire deal, not just the headline interest rate.
SO WHEN ARE MORTGAGE RATES GOING TO COME BACK DOWN?
That is the question everyone wants answered.
The truth is that nobody knows the exact date.
What we can do is watch the things that matter.
We want to see inflation cool.
We want to see oil and energy prices stabilize.
We want to see Treasury yields move lower.
We want economic growth to moderate without the economy falling apart.
If those pieces begin moving in the right direction, mortgage rates can improve.
But I am not going to tell someone that rates are definitely dropping next month or that they should make a major financial decision based on a prediction.
I would rather watch the market every day, understand what is actually happening, and help people make decisions based on the numbers in front of them.
That is what we do at Blink Lending & Investments.
Whether you are buying a home, selling a home, refinancing, accessing equity, or investing in real estate, interest rates can affect your strategy.
And you should not have to follow Treasury yields, inflation reports, oil prices, Federal Reserve meetings, and mortgage backed securities every day just to understand what is going on.
That is our job.
If you have a question about mortgage rates, buying, refinancing, cash out financing, or financing an investment property, please reach out.
And if a friend, family member, coworker, or client ever has lending questions, Please Think Blink as we'd love to get you answers.
