11/04/2025
The US housing market is frozen:
Only 28 out of every 1,000 homes, or 2.8%, changed hands in the first 9 months of 2025, the least in at least 30 years.
The turnover rate has declined -38% since the 2021 peak, when 44 out of every 1,000 homes were sold.
By comparison, the rate stood at 40 per 1,000, or 44% higher, in 2019 before the 2020 pandemic.
The market is frozen due to a rate lock-in effect, where over 70% of homeowners hold mortgages with rates below 5%.
These owners refuse to sell into a 6%+ rate environment, while elevated home prices and borrowing costs have pushed potential buyers to the sidelines.
The housing market has stalled.
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