Don Cook First Team Real Estate

Don Cook First Team Real Estate To help friends & clients understand the current trends with Orange County Real Estate. The internet gives you raw information, my expertise deciphers it.

Real Estate sales and marketing expert.

10/01/2023

Made it to the Huntington Beach airshow today, rain hit about 1:45 pm so I rode my bike home. Drove back an hour later and the 2nd half was fantastic!

Eagles cover band at Fashion island in Newport Beach.
09/18/2023

Eagles cover band at Fashion island in Newport Beach.

More "housing market" FUN FACTS.There are about 3,200,000 people living in Orange County, CA.There are about 714,166 hom...
06/15/2023

More "housing market" FUN FACTS.
There are about 3,200,000 people living in Orange County, CA.
There are about 714,166 homes and condos in Orange County.
In ALL of Orange County there are only 2,098 for sale 6-14-2098.
In ALL of Orange County there are ONLY 8 distressed for sale!
Do NOT expect home values to crash in Orange County!

The housing market can be scary if you don't have the right people helping you and accurate info. Timing is important, ...
06/15/2023

The housing market can be scary if you don't have the right people helping you and accurate info. Timing is important, but you should look at real estate as a long term investment. Here's a guide to today's market, this is the medium price of single family homes in Orange County.

Here is an edited and condensed version of "The Orange County Housing Report" written by STEVEN THOMAS 9-19-2022WHAT IS ...
09/23/2022

Here is an edited and condensed version of "The Orange County Housing Report" written by STEVEN THOMAS 9-19-2022
WHAT IS PREVENTING A LARGE NUMBER OF “HOMEOWNERS” FROM SELLING THEIR HOMES!
Far fewer homeowners are placing their homes on the market in 2022. This trend has grown over the past couple of months. Through August, there are 5,473 missing homes for sale in Orange County compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID, that is 19% less homes.
The other big impact on buyers is mortgage rates have shot up, from 3.25% at the start of this year to 6.42% today. This is the highest level since November 2008.

Many homeowners are not moving because they simply do not want to sell, as they are locked into a low fixed mortgage rate. According to Black Knight, 72% of all homeowners with a mortgage have a “30-year fixed rate mortgage” at 4% or lower and 34% have a rate at 3% or lower!

The active listing inventory of homes for sale decreased by 88 homes this week, down 2%, and now sits at 3,638. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) is 6,520, an extra 2,882 homes, or 79% more than today. Experts expect the inventory to continue to drop as fewer homeowners come to market during the Autumn/Holiday season.

The high mortgage rates have dramatically impacted demand for homes; dropping to levels not seen since the last recession. Demand should continue to drop during the Holiday season and through the end of the year. It normally picks up greatly once we get to March, but what will interest rates be like in 2023?

The Expected Market Time (the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace) increased from 61 to 62 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year the Expected Market Time was at 26 days, substantially faster than today. The 3-year average prior to COVID was at 84 days. There are far fewer multiple offers now and home values are not appreciating much at all.

However for homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 43 days. This range represents 20% of the active inventory and 29% of demand.

Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, are still rare. There are only 5 foreclosures and 3 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County!

So what does this mean for buyers and sellers. You should never think about real estate as a quick investment, you need to be more selective in this market and be very clear about your goals. There are still good buys that come on the market, but how well will it fit your goals?

Make Your Home More Fire-ResistantOne of the homes I sold to a client 2 years ago is only 1 street over from the big fir...
05/12/2022

Make Your Home More Fire-Resistant
One of the homes I sold to a client 2 years ago is only 1 street over from the big fire in Laguna Niguel. I had shown several of the homes that did burn down on Coronado Pointe. Here's some great tips on how to be prepared:
• When buying a new home or remodeling the roof on your home, avoid flammable materials. Try for asphalt shingles, clay tiles, metal, slate or stone roofing.
• Wildfire embers will often enter vent openings and ignite the building. Install small-mesh metal screens over all vent openings to keep embers and hot ash out. Mesh should be no larger than 1/8-inch.
• Clear debris and flammable materials for 30 feet around your home. These include leaves, wood piles, paper and flammable liquids.
• Make an Emergency evacuation plan and make sure everyone in your house knows where to go and what to do. Know more than 1 way out of your neighborhood.
• Check and update all important documents. The most up-to-date contact info and home values. Put printed copies in your “get away bag.” Keep your social security cards, passports and copies of your driver’s licenses, plus all other critical documents in a fireproof safe.

I have friends and clients keep mentioning how much prices of homes have gone up in California. We are actually in 16th...
03/31/2022

I have friends and clients keep mentioning how much prices of homes have gone up in California. We are actually in 16th place for the last year and in 7th place over the last 10years.

When is the supply of homes going to increase? How does the population for each age group affect the demand for homes?T...
02/10/2022

When is the supply of homes going to increase? How does the population for each age group affect the demand for homes?

This graph will help predict which areas should have the most demand this year, which equals the best growth in home prices. It has to do with the number of people in their mid 30’s, they are hopefully secure in a career and able to qualify to buy a home. They are generally married and thinking about having kids, school districts matter to them now.

In the United States we are seeing a huge increase in the number of house-hunting mid 30 year-olds thanks to the large number of Millennials who are entering that prime age range. The need to be near a transportation hub or the center of a city is fading, schools and safety are now at the top of most lists.

Here is a great illustration of each "generation," it is narrowed down to normal working age years.

01/20/2022

What are home prices going to do this year? No one can predict what will happen exactly, but the “experts” are forecasting that home prices will go up between 2% and 10% in 2022. As long as we don’t go into a recession, the biggest factor will be what happens with “home loan” interest rates. They are about 3.5% right now and as long as they don’t go over 4%, the experts are predicting that home values will go up about 10% this year. If home loan rates gets closer to 5% they are saying that home values might only go up about 2%.

The main take away from the Mortgage Bankers Association recent forecast is that they see 2022 as a transition year, moving from a refinance market to a purchase market…. MBA forecasts a record year for purchase volume in 2022, driven by millennials reaching peak first-time homebuyer age, a strong job market, and continued increases in home prices.”

However, they see a decrease in the rate of those home price gains: “MBA’s forecast for an increase in housing starts and home sales, coupled with our expectation of somewhat higher mortgage rates, should together lead to deceleration in home-price growth to around 5% in 2022. Note that this is a “deceleration” — a slowing in the rate of growth, “not” a decline in the level of home prices.”

If you are thinking about buying a home, don’t keep waiting for a drop. Today is a good time compared to waiting another year! I can give you details of the cost benefit compared to renting, projections on the short term and long term increases in your wealth by owning properties and even the tax benefits of owning a home. Yes, the government helps “you” pay for a home if you have taxable income! Just call or PM me and I will send you a clear picture of your options and the best strategy to go forward.

01/04/2022

The housing market in Orange Country started 2022 in record low terms for number of homes for sale, only 975 homes/condos in ALL of Orange County! For a deeper explanation of the market, there was a fairly normal number of homes that actually sold in 2021, but the demand was so strong that the homes would sell right away and the active inventory was extremely low all year long. I put a new listing on the market in December and sold it with multiple offers 4 days before Christmas!

Here is a quick snapshot of seven cities: Cypress, Dana Point, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Lake Forest, Orange and Yorba Linda. I will give you the current number of homes/condos actively for sale as of 1/3/2022, the lowest and highest priced in for each city for sale and the lowest and highest priced closed sales in the last 180 days per the Realtor CRMLS.

Cypress: 15 for sale, $548,800 to $1,799,000. Closed sales $379,000 to $1,600,000.
Dana Point: 38 for sale, $569,000 to $33,888,888. Closed sales $215,000 to $23,500,000.
Huntington Beach: 84 for sale, $385,000 to $8,995,000. Closed sales $169,000 to $6,200,000.
Irvine: 79 for sale, $388,000 to $49,950,000. Closed sales $340,000 to $11,180,000.
Lake Forest: 25 for sale, $390,000 to $2,980,000. Closed sales $330,000 to $2,800,000.
Orange: 32 for sale, $480,000 to $4,000,000. Closed sales $320,000 to $5,050,000.
Yorba Linda: 29 for sale, $427,500 to $5,250,000. Closed sales $300,000 to $5,000,000.

If you want to get an update on any other city in Southern California, just send me a text or message and I will send the most recent info over to you. Have a fantastic 2022!

11/15/2021

Why the “Zestimate” is bad:
ZILLOW SELLS 2,000 HOMES TO CONTROVERSIAL INVESTMENT FIRM
RISMEDIA NEWS
By Jesse Williams. Nov 10, 2021 (Edited)

“Zillow has reportedly taken the first steps in unloading its unprofitable backlog of i-Bought homes. According to the Wall Street Journal, the real estate giant agreed to sell 2,000 homes to rental investment firm Pretium Partners.

After announcing an end to its iBuying business last week ahead of a Q3 earnings call, the company said it would be selling a backlog of 18,000 homes either purchased or under contract, at a likely loss of around $550 million, or 5% to 7% below purchase price per home.”

10/07/2021

Why This Fall Is a Big Opportunity for Buyers

October 5, 2021 Realtor Magazine (Edited)

The housing market has been fiercely competitive over the last few months, but hopeful buyers who keep getting shut out may soon find better luck. Several signs in the housing market point to a potential opening to buy this fall, housing analysts say.
For one, competition is cooling at some price levels and listings are receiving fewer offers. It has been reported that bidding wars have reached the lowest level all year.
Also, more listings are coming to market, offering buyers more choices. A recent realtor.com® report shows housing inventory is at a high for 2021. Nearly one-third of the 50 largest metros saw increases in the number of newly listed homes compared to last year.
“This September, buyers had more options than they’ve had all year and while that’s typical of early fall, that’s not what happened in 2020,” says Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist. “Still, it’s important to remember that while buyers may have an easier time this fall than they did in the spring, the market remains more competitive than it has been historically at this time of year.”
There are still fewer homes for sale than a year ago, and less than half as many two years ago before the pandemic, Hale says.
Hopeful buyers will want to watch days on the market to indicate whether now could be a better time to buy. Buyers will also want to keep an eye out for the median days on the market for neighborhoods, cities, and metro areas.
Some people “feel” that homes are overpriced and believe there will be a big drop, but there are NO economic or market conditions right now that point to a price drop. This is not at all like the housing market in 2004-2009. Potential buyers will never be able to wait out the market perfectly and the odds are they will be in a worse situation as interest rates rise above the fantastic lows rates we still have.
The housing market is not like the stock market, for most of us it is our home and our largest investment; don’t gamble with your future! Call or text me if you want great info on secret off market homes and private listings?

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