06/18/2026
📈 Global airfreight spot rates reached $3.40 per kilogram in May 2026, up 41% year over year, according to Xeneta.
✈️ However, Middle Eastern airline capacity is recovering, summer passenger flights are increasing, and air cargo demand usually slows during the Northern Hemisphere summer. These factors may reduce rate pressure in June.
❓ Why Did Airfreight Rates Rise So Fast?
📊 Global air cargo volume increased only 4%, but the dynamic load factor rose to 61%.
🧮 The dynamic load factor measures how much available aircraft space is being used based on both cargo weight and volume. A higher load factor means less available space, which makes airfreight rates easier to increase.
🌏 Asia–North America Routes Drove the Increase
🌐 The rate increase was concentrated on major trans-Pacific routes.
📅 From late February to late May:
📈 Northeast Asia–North America spot rates rose 39%
📈 Southeast Asia–North America spot rates rose 33%
📉 Europe–North America rates fell 26%
💻 Data center equipment, semiconductors and other high-value components supported demand from Asia. These products often require faster and more reliable transportation.
⚠️ Conflict Increased Airline Costs
🌍 The Iran war continued to affect flight safety, fuel supply and airline operations.
⛽ Airlines may reduce flights, change routes or introduce fuel and security surcharges. These costs are often passed on to freight forwarders and shippers.
📝 Some shippers also delayed annual tenders and used short-term contract extensions. This keeps cargo moving, but short-term agreements are more exposed to spot-rate increases.
📉 Why Rates May Cool in June
✈️ Middle Eastern airlines are gradually restoring capacity. More available cargo space could reduce pressure on rates.
☀️ Summer passenger flights also add belly cargo capacity. At the same time, summer is usually a slower period for air cargo demand.
⏱️ Rates may decline gradually because airline contracts, freight forwarder quotes and capacity allocations need time to adjust.
🔍 What Shippers Should Watch
🚢 Some companies are shipping goods early by sea to avoid possible energy cost increases or peak-season delays.
✈️ If ocean shipping cannot meet delivery deadlines, part of this cargo may move to airfreight and push rates higher again.
📦 China–U.S. low-value goods and e-commerce shipments fell 33% year over year in April 2026. However, some sellers may be combining small parcels into larger air cargo shipments, so traditional parcel data may not show the full market demand.
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