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https://www.homesteadgroup.com/

Homestead Mortgage, 171 Main Street, Jackson, CA (2026)

06/30/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
The peace deal between Iran and the US crumbled over the weekend, but as of now, the deal is intact again.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.54% Biased to Rise
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 6.12% Biased to Rise
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Cease Fire Psych-out
No, this is not a copy-paste of a previous market update, but yes, missiles were, yet again, exchanged between the US and Iran over the weekend. Iran is still seeking control of the Strait of Hormuz, and in a defensive response, the US fired missiles at some communications and radar locations. This was followed by Iran launching strikes against US bases in the region. As of now, it seems this was a short bout, and supposedly the deal still is intact. As of now, oil per barrel is still around $70. Mortgage-Backed Securities have taken a bit of a dip, but there is some hesitation to drop further. We are biased for mortgage rates to rise, but that is all dependent on how the US and Iran play together in the region. If the price of oil continues to temper inflation, we will soon see a recovery in the market.

Average Mortgage Rates:The peace deal between Iran and the US crum...

06/24/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
So far, the Iran peace deal has stuck, and oil prices have dropped. We still await mortgage rates to fall in kind.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.55% Lowering
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 6.15% Lowering
*Note includes 20% down and discount points

Oil is Down, but Rates Are Not...Yet
Real progress is being made in the economy “post-war”. The price of oil is $70/barrel, which is almost pre-war levels. So, we would expect interest rates to be the same as pre-war levels, right?
Not so fast! There is still some uncertainty and volatility in the market when it comes to a lasting peace. Before mortgage rates can come down, inflation needs to ease, and this peace needs to stand the test of time. Many consider this inflation to be acute rather than chronic, so we are looking at a shorter turnaround than COVID. To further drive this slowing of the market, home sales are down nearly 27% this year in the western states. So, there is a lot of hope that the market will heal. All this to say, mortgage-backed securities have not responded in kind with the price of oil…yet.

Be ready and start to get your pipeline thinking about buying again in the next couple of months. I know a perfect place to help get them pre-approved for that time!

Oil is Down, but Rates Are Not...YetReal progress is being made in...

06/10/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
Missiles fly even though peace has been negotiated with Iran. In response, Global oil prices have once again risen and subsequently, mortgage rates.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.48% Rising
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.79% Rising
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Make Peace, and Oil

US bases around the Middle East have been the subject of rocket fire. As a result, negotiations with Iran have fallen flat on their face. The price of oil is once again rising, and so too are mortgage rates.
This past week has seen a rise in rates, and it seems this will be the trendline for the rest of the week. Keep in mind, the Federal Reserve has not touched rates since December 10th, 2025. It is important to understand that inflation is the main driver of rates instead of the FED.
The main principle of mortgage rate fluctuation is rooted in the lender’s profit margin. To keep it simple, consider the following.

If the current rate is 6.75%
The Fed rate is 3.75%
Inflation is 4%
The Bank’s profit/loss is -1.00%

If the expectation is that inflation will continue to rise, lenders will be forced to answer to the profit gods and squeeze the consumer to make up for rising inflation. Conversely, if inflation comes down, lenders may want to become more competitive so they can attract more customers before the competition can wise up!

Make Peace, and OilUS bases around the Middle East have been the ...

05/14/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair, and rumors of more oil give hope, but inflation is still weighing on the markets. Average rates have been rising steadily.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.36% Biased to Rise
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.71% Biased to Rise
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Rates Warsh Away
We have entered another market of uncertainty where each day has seen swings of growth or shrinking. There are some legitimate signals of lower rates on the horizon, but the elephant named “Inflation” keeps the market down. While rates are stuck in uncertainty, any news, positive or negative, can tip the scales either direction.

Market Positives
• Kevin Warsh is officially confirmed as the new Federal Reserve Chairman. He is a fan of cutting rates ASAP once inflation slows.
• IEA is optimistic that oil will once again flow through the Strait of Hormuz come this June
• Xi Jinping and Trump met and agreed that Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, and oil needs to flow ASAP. China used to buy as much as 95% of their oil from Iran. They are hurting and want an end to this conflict ASAP.

Market Negatives
• Inflation has reached its highest level in 3 years, now sitting at 3.8% YoY, up from 3.3% YoY. This is largely driven by the cost of energy.
• Iran still has not agreed to terms for any kind of end to the war.
• Conflict is still up in the air as skirmishes continue and oil is not flowing as freely as expected.

https://youtu.be/duuzyGwyyWI

• Xi Jinping and Trump met and agreed that Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, and oil needs to flow ASAP. China used to buy as much as 95% of its oil from Iran. They are hurting and want an end to this conflict ASAP.

Average Mortgage Rates:Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair, and rumors of more oil give hope, but inflation is still weighing on the markets. Average rates have...

04/29/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
The Federal Reserve meets, and inflation data gives the market a pessimistic future.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.23% Rising
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.58% Rising
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Oil Inflation Catches Rates

Unfortunately, the day has finally come where the effects of the Iran war have finally caught up with our inflation data. The Federal Reserve is meeting both today, April 29th and tomorrow. In this meeting, it is expected that they will reveal year over year inflation to rise from 2.8% all the way to 3.4 maybe even 3.5%. As we mentioned at the beginning of the conflict in March, it would take a few months’ time before the far-reaching arms of energy prices would affect the rest of the economy. That day has come and with it the mortgage-backed securities market has taken a 40 point plunge in one day.

The current 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.23% but is expected to rise drastically. There does not seem to be any immediate relief on the horizon, unless we have a drastic reduction in the cost of oil. For the near and foreseeable future, this means that we will see a rise in mortgage interest rates. In fact, it seems we have gotten very lucky with the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates on this meeting. However, the expectation is if that inflation continues, we will see the federal funds rate increase.

We are at the beginning trend of a rising inflation market. Any buyers who are interested in the housing market or currently in it need to take advantage before they rise much higher.
Realtors it's time to call your shoppers and let them know the time is now.

https://youtu.be/nAHC1j-afo8

Realtors, it's time to call your shoppers and let them know the time is now.

Oil Inflation Catches Rates

03/24/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
With Inflation begging to sink its teeth into the economy, rates rise in haste.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.22% Quick Rise
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.54% Rising
*Note includes 20% down and discount points

Rates in a Bear Market
There are less than 12 hours remaining in Donald Trump's ultimatum towards Iran.
"If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”
Assuming Negotiations continue to go well this deadline might be extended, but we are still left with two potential directions on mortgage interest rates.
Up - rates can continue upward if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened safely, as it will drive inflation. Additionally, if inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates.
Down - If the Strait is open safely, that will drive down the price of oil and temper inflation. This will ultimately bring us back to a similar environment to that of less than a month ago.
Currently, mortgage rates have taken a pause in their escalation until we hear further news on the Iran conflict. For now, we can expect the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage to sit at 6.3% to 6.4% in the next couple of days.

https://youtu.be/VLwaGpypB7U

Currently, mortgage rates have taken a pause in their escalation until we hear further news on the Iran conflict. For now, we can expect the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage to sit at 6.3% to 6.4% in the next couple days.

Average Mortgage Rates:With Inflation begging to sink its teeth into the economy, rates rise in haste.*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.22% Quick Rise*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5...

03/03/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
For a short time, rates dipped below 6% on a 30 yr FRM, but with conflict in Iran, that is no more.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 5.98% Rising
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.44% Rising
*Note includes 20% down and discount points

Rates Slip on Oil
Just after dipping below 6% the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is expected to rise. The conflict in Iran is the main driver behind this.
Since Iran supplies 20% of the world's oil, and they control the direct shipping passage dubbed the “Strait of Hormuz”, it is widely expected that the price of oil is set to skyrocket.
Just in 2 days of the Straight’s closure, there has been a near 50% rise from $57.26/barrel up to $76.49/barrel. This pricing increase will bleed over into the rest of the world’s economy causing inflation to rise. This future rise in inflation is why the mortgage markets have responded negatively in the past 2 days. It is expected that we will have a departure from these lower interest rates and a recovery to mortgage interest rates will only come depending on how long the conflict lasts and if oil supply can recover. Keep in mind that Venezuela, another major oil supplier, has had a regime change that impacted the world’s oil as well.

What does this mean? Waiting will now be a net negative for buyers and those wanting to Refi. Once the cost of oil spreads to the rest of the economy, we do expect rates to move upwards.

Average Mortgage Rates:For a short time, rates dipped below 6% on a 30 yr FRM, but with conflict in Iran, that is no more. *Conv - 30Yr FRM – 5.98% Rising*C...

02/24/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
Rates are at their lowest since Sept, 2022.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.01% Slight Decline
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.35% Slight Decline
*Note includes 20% down and discount points

Rates Down Appreciation Up
It seems that mortgage rates have gained some momentum in the downward direction hitting new lows we have not had since September 2022.
Borrowers have been entering the market in steady fashion and quietly so has home appreciation. This is not a new phenomenon, but as predicted when rates fall, prices will rise.
There are three factors that mean your buyers need to get shopping now!

1. Lower Rates – More buyers enter the field as affordability increases. Time to start pulling them off the fence.
2. Appreciation Rising – When rates are low and demand is high; buyers will offer more. We will begin to see a shift to a sellers’ market soon.
3. Lower inventory – compared to Pre-Covid inventory, there are 6% less listings than before. This will increase demand as there is just less out there!

A big question to answer is; “Will rates go lower?” Rather than give my opinion, I will give you this breakdown of rate predictions for the next quarter from several major Real Estate players.

Fannie Mae 6.00%
NAR 6.00%
Bright MLS 6.13%
Zillow 6.13%
Wells Fargo 6.20%
NAHB 6.20%
Realtor.c o m 6.30%
Redfin 6.30%
MBA 6.40%
MBS highway 5.60%

Average 6.18%

Average Mortgage Rates:Rates are at their lowest since Sept, 2022. *Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.01% Slight Decline*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.35% Slight Decline*Note includ...

01/27/2026

Average Mortgage Rates:
Fed Meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday but expected to keep rates the same.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.09% Slight Decline
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.44% Slight Decline
*Note includes 20% down and discount points

The Fed’s Nothing Burger

Today, January 27, 2026, and tomorrow are when the Federal Reserve is set to meet and provide a decision on the Federal Funds Rate. It currently sits at 3.5% - 3.75% and is widely expected to remain put.
This does not come as a shock since this has been Jerome Powell’s talking point since the end of 2025. Since late September 2025 through today, Mortgage interest rates have been in a very stable and shallow decline.
This action demonstrates a stability in the overall mortgage market and signals that this may be the interest rate environment for the foreseeable future. Yes, it is expected that rates will drop especially if inflation can continue below 1% Month over month.
As for now, an interesting trend has picked up in recent weeks. More buyers are beginning to invest more in discount points. When the general market sentiment was lower rates in the near future, discount points almost seemed moot. Why invest extra money upfront when you would Refi shortly after? Now, it seems more reasonable to make the investment if this is where interest rates will live. With this, the average 30 yr FRM has declined to 6.09% and many buyers are buying down into the 5% range.

The Fed’s Nothing BurgerToday, January 27, 2026, and tomorrow are when the Federal Reserve is set to meet and provide a decision on the Federal Funds Rate. I...

12/30/2025

Average Mortgage Rates:
Jerome Powell’s remarks at the last Fed Meeting indicate that rates will likely remain for the first part of 2026.

*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6.18% Stagnant
*Conv – 15Yr FRM – 5.50% Stagnant
*Note includes 20% down and discount points
Rates Cruise into the New Year

Another year is nearly in the books, but the drama has subsided. Mortgage interest rates have been relatively flat over the last three months.
Even with three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, mortgage interest rates have hovered around 6.2% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
In addition, daily activity in the mortgage-backed securities market has also calmed. Daily swings are no longer as drastic, and predictability has entered the marketplace.
The biggest influencers of mortgage interest rates will be inflation, jobs, potential of recession, supply and demand, and lender competition.
For now, the Federal Reserve will not necessarily dictate the direction of mortgage interest rates as they are taking a wait-and-see approach for the early part of 2026.
It seems that in the more immediate time frame, high fives and low sixes will be where interest rates live.

Average Mortgage Rates:Jerome Powell’s remarks at the last Fed Meeting indicate that rates will likely remain for the first part of 2026.*Conv - 30Yr FRM – 6...

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