Chuck Bernreuter 360 Real Estate

12/18/2023

From home sales to prices, here's what Goldman Sachs sees for the housing market in the next 4 years

Goldman Sachs expects the housing market to remain tight in the coming years. Bob Gothard/ Wallace and Co. Sotheby's International Realty.

• Goldman Sachs gave its outlook for key housing market stats including sales and price growth for the coming year.
• Housing starts and home prices will tick higher, while existing home sales will remain flat, in the bank's view.
• Goldman forecasts the Fed to achieve a soft landing and a no-recession scenario in 2024.
Goldman Sachs expects the frozen housing market to thaw just slightly over the next four years, according to an outlook from a team of strategists led by chief economist Jan Hatzius.
For 2023, the bank's preliminary estimate for housing starts sits at 1.390 million. Over the next four years, Goldman expects that to inch higher to 1.335 million in 2024, 1.430 million 2025, 1.515 million in 2026, and finally 1.535 million in 2027.
As for new home sales, Goldman sees that figure ending the year at 680,000. In 2024, the bank said it will move to 723,000, before climbing to 771,000 and 781,000 in 2025 and 2026, respectively, before hitting 858,000 in 2027.
Existing home sales, meanwhile, which Goldmans' preliminary estimate puts at 4.092 million for this year, will dip next year to 3.834 million.
Existing sales in the bank's view will rebound in 2025 to 4.240 million in 2025, and 4.369 million and 5.001 million the two years afterward.
That last figure illustrates that even by 2027, the Wall Street firm doesn't expect existing home sales to reach either the pre-pandemic level of 5.34 million or the 2021 boom of 6.12 million, as ResiClub pointed out in a note Tuesday.
Over the last two years, low inventory, rising home prices, and skyrocketing mortgage rates have made it difficult for Americans to enter the housing market, either as buyers or sellers. Conditions have made many homeowners reluctant to move, which has left house hunters with fewer options to choose from.
Broadly, Goldman's Hatzius said the risk of a recession in the US remains low. He added the Federal Reserve should be able to achieve a soft-landing of the economy, a forecast which has gained momentum across Wall Street over recent months.
Easing inflation and a cooling labor market has sparked bets the central bank could cut interest rate cuts as soon as March 2024, though in a Friday interview with CNBC, Hatzius maintained that markets may be getting too excited over the prospect of easing monetary policy.
"I think in the second half of the year is more realistic than the first half, but again, it's going to depend on the data," he said, referring to the potential for rate cuts.
An outlook from Zillow economists at the end of November predicted that home-buying costs will ultimately level off next year.
"Predicting how mortgage rates will move is a nearly impossible task, but recent inflation news gives the impression that rates are likely to hold fairly steady as well in the coming months," Zillow researchers said. "Taken together, the cost of buying a home looks to be on track to level off next year, with the possibility of costs falling if mortgage rates do."
Phil Rosen
Dec 13, 2023, 10:36 AM EST

12/16/2023

Barbara Corcoran could be DEAD RIGHT.

Shark Tank's Barbara Corcoran says you're 'dead wrong' if you try to wait for a better deal on the housing market
Aruni Soni Dec 14, 2023, 10:00 AM EST
Barbara Corcoran.

You're "dead wrong" if you wait for a better deal in the housing market, Shark Tank's Barbara Corcoran says.

• As rents and mortgage rates drop, prospective buyers may be tempted to see how low they go.
• "The minute actual interest rates come down just one more point, everybody's going to jump into the market."

As mortgage rates and rent prices drop, prospective buyers may be tempted to wait out the fall before diving into the market.
That's a fool's errand, "Shark Tank" investor and real-estate legend Barbara Corcoran says.
"You're much better off buying something now when you can," Corcoran said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday. "Because if you don't have a chit in the game, and you continue to be a tenant and wait the market out — which many people are thinking right now they should be doing — they're dead wrong."
On Wednesday, Redfin noted that median asking rents saw their biggest year-over-year drop since February 2020. Corcoran said rent prices had probably hit a short-term peak as inventory concerns eased, but it was a minor decline at best.
Mortgage rates, too, have been sliding on the market's conviction that the Fed is pivoting to rate cuts soon. The 30-year fixed rate has tumbled to 7.03% from 8% in October.
Some people have been cashing in on the downtrend. In fact, median home sales prices as of last week are clocking in at $364,535, Redfin data shows. That's down from $414,000 in October.
But those who are trying to time the housing market may see their plans backfire.
"The minute actual interest rates come down just one more point, everybody's going to jump into the market, and you're going to be paying a lot more for your house," Corcoran said. Her advice echoed her previous warnings about home prices back in August when she said "all hell's going to break loose" once the Fed cuts rates and mortgages get cheaper.
"If you have any way of getting cash together and getting into the market and buying a house and getting out of a rental, which is tempting to keep because it's a little cheaper, don't do it," she said. "Buy yourself a house."
Similarly, a Bank of America executive told Business Insider recently that trying to time the housing market by waiting for lower rates wasn't a good idea.
"It's really when you're financially ready, emotionally ready, and, ultimately, you find that home that fits your dreams and/or your needs," said Matt Vernon, the bank's head of consumer lending.

12/11/2023

Mortgage rates are falling at the fastest pace since the 2008 housing-market crash
Filip De Mott
Dec 6, 2023, 3:57 PM EST
The housing market is getting a bigger jolt as mortgage rates continue to tumble along with US Treasury yields.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said that in the week ending December 1, the 30-year fixed rate slipped to 7.17% from 7.37% in the prior week.
Rates have plunged on expectations the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and poised to pivot to cuts next year, sending benchmark bond yields and other borrowing costs lower, too.
In fact, Bloomberg reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had sustained its biggest drop in a five-week period since late 2008, diving 69 basis points in that span.
n response to falling mortgage refinance rates, applications for home refinancing jumped 14% in the latest week and were 10% higher from the same week in 2022.
"Refinance applications saw the strongest week in two months, increasing on a year-over-year basis for the second consecutive week for the first time since late 2021," Joel Kan, an MBA vice president, said in the report. "The overall level of refinance applications is still very low, but recent increases could signal that 2023 was the low point in this cycle for refinance activity, consistent with our originations forecast."
But this hasn't translated into higher buying demand yet, with applications for a mortgage to purchase a home down 0.3% during the week and 17% lower from last year. High prices and a lack of housing inventory continue to bear down on homebuyers.
But buyers can expect mortgage rates to continue sliding next year, analysts predict, with the 30-year mortgage rate settling in the 6% to 7% range. That's down from 8% in October.

12/05/2022

Even though the originator f this article is in Seattle doesn't mean it only applies in Seattle.......read on.

More Sellers Decide to Delist Their Homes
By Kerry Smith
One agent’s take: “Some sellers are having a hard time grasping that we’re not in a housing-market frenzy anymore … that they missed the boat on getting a high price.”

SEATTLE – One out of every 50 housings listed for sales – a record 2% – were delisted each week on average during the 12 weeks ending Nov. 20 compared with 1.6% one year earlier, according to a report from Redfin. The share dropped to 1.9% for the 12 weeks ending Nov. 27, which includes the Thanksgiving holiday.

Sellers pull their listing for a variety of reasons, but many lately do so because they’re not getting the money they thought they would get as prices stagnate. Many sellers also don’t the challenges buyer have faced recently as higher mortgage rates cut into their homebuying dollar. While mortgage rates have dipped slightly since mid-November, the monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home is still 40% higher than it was one year ago.

In some cases, sellers received no offers at the price they wanted, and in some cases no offers at all.

“Some sellers are having a hard time grasping that we’re not in a housing-market frenzy anymore – it’s tough for them to swallow that they missed the boat on getting a high price,” says Heather Kruayai, a Redfin real estate agent in Jacksonville. “By the time sellers realize their listing is priced too high, it has already been on the market for too long and is considered stale. I recently had two sellers take their homes off the market after 45-plus days.”

Florida metros – weekly delisting average – year-to-year change
Fort Lauderdale: 1.6%, up 0.2 points year-to-year
Jacksonville: 1.9% up 0.9 points
Miami: 1.9%, up 0.1 points
Orlando: 2.0%, up 0.4 points
Tampa: 1.9%, up 0.3 points
West Palm Beach: 1.7%, up 0.3 points
Nationally, only six metros saw a decrease in delistings year-to-year, all less than 1%: Warren, Michigan; Chicago; Newark, New Jersey; New Brunswick, New Jersey; Detroit; and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.

West Coast tops for unhappy sellers
Sacramento, California, led the U.S. in the year-to-year increase of delisted homes – 3.6% of active listings were delisted per week, on average, during the 12 weeks ending Nov. 27, up 1.6 percentage points from one year earlier. It’s followed by Austin, TX (up 1.5 points), Seattle (up 1.4 points), Phoenix (up 1.3 points) and Denver (up 1.2 points).

Sacramento not only saw the biggest year-over-year jump in delistings; it also had the highest overall share, with 3.6% of for-sale homes delisted per week on average during the 12 weeks ending Nov. 27. It was followed by San Francisco (3.4%), Oakland (3.3%), Seattle (3.2%) and San Jose (3%).

Pittsburgh had the lowest share of delistings at 1.3%, followed by Cincinnati at 1.4%,New Brunswick (1.5%), Newark (1.6%) and Virginia Beach (1.6%).

“Usually, sellers who pull their listings off the market in the fall do it with the intention of listing again in the spring,” says David Palmer, a Redfin agent in Seattle. “But with the word ‘recession’ out there, there’s not as much optimism about spring being a better market. Now people are talking about trying again in another year or two once the economy improves.”

© 2022 Florida Realtors®

11/04/2022

Its been a while BUT with elections around the corner, I wanted to share this with you; VERY IMPORTANT!

Jacksonville attorney discusses what Amendment 2 means for you
Andrew Badillo - Oct 25

Every 20 years a new Constitution Revision Commission (CRC) is formed to consider changes to Florida's constitution presented by the people.

Hank Coxe, a Jacksonville attorney, was appointed to the most recent commission in 2017-2018. He was honored having seen the previous work of the commission.
But left the commission with mixed feelings.

"This time around it was a toy of the Governor, and it was a toy of the speaker of the house, and it just became so unmeaningful," Coxe said. "... I really believe that the governor and the speaker of the house thought it was their little mini legislature and that's never what it was intended to be."

Amendment 2 is on the ballot, a yes vote would get rid of the CRC. Senator Jeff Brandes proposed the bill saying it "should be abolished."

RELATED: Amendment 1 would allow homeowners to raise their homes without a property tax increase
House Rep Mike Beltran (R) has also been critical of the CRC, specifically its bundling, such as pairing the ban of offshore drilling and indoor va**ng into one bill.

Coxe, the former Florida Bar President, agrees with some of the criticisms, but not getting rid of the CRC.
"The solution to that problem is not to repeal the constitution revision commission which was great 40 and 20 years ago I mean they messed it up this time it was to just change some of the structural issues," he said. "Forbid bundling that's easy enough just don't let it happen, but there were people who had their agendas in play, and they wanted to bundle it to make sure certain things got passed."

If Amendment 2 gets a yes vote, with at least 60 percent of voter support, Coxe says the only option for citizens to meaningfully challenge the constitution would be through the petition process.
He says he hopes the CRC stays and gets back to its roots.
"Twenty years ago, the only items that were put on the ballot and the public voted for some and didn't vote for others were a meaningful use of the constitution revision committee," Coxe said.
"When this was created, there were some great minds who sat around a put it together because Florida had a new constitution, but they wanted to make sure it served the people a make sure it served the people and if it didn't and the legislature wouldn't solve those problems let the people speak up and do it."

RELATED: County-by-County: Your guide to the 2022 General Election in Georgia
RELATED: County-by-County: Your guide to the 2022 General Election in Florida

03/24/2022

FLORIDA HOUSING STATE OF EMERGENCY.

Jacksonville lawmaker asking Florida governor to declare housing state of emergency.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – State Rep. Angie Nixon of Duval County is calling on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to declare a state of emergency to deal with what she calls a housing crisis.
News4JAX has been reporting on the rising cost of homes and rent for months. Jacksonville, where Redfin estimates rents went up 31% last year, is among the hardest-hit cities for rent increases.
Earlier this week, “60 Minutes” reported one reason rent and home prices are so high in Jacksonville is because a lot of people are moving to the city.
Nixon says that if this path continues, there will be an increase in homelessness and people leaving Florida.
“I am asking the governor to declare a housing state of emergency in Florida,” Nixon said.
Nixon says she hears from people every day about rising housing costs.
“Telling me how they can no longer afford to live in this state and that they’re looking to move out of Florida,” Nixon said. “And that is not right.”
One of them is Sharif Hall. He’s a senior at the University of North Florida who says the about $1,400 a month rent he and his roommates pay is going up $300.
“I was looking for jobs here as well, but I’m also considering moving out of state, especially since I got family and other places where I can kind of stay with them for a little bit,” Hall said.
Nixon says a state of emergency could allow the governor to dip into Florida’s $9 billion in reserves for housing programs.
The governor’s office says that’s not going to happen, saying, “Increasing government intervention into markets can not solve complex problems like this.”
A spokesperson for the governor also noted the budget included $363 million for affordable housing.
“We’re providing support on the housing. We did a bump, $1.3 billion in tax relief to hopefully mitigate some of the crunch that people are feeling, but make no mistake about it, what you need to do is reverse those policies that are causing the inflation to begin with,” DeSantis said.
DeSantis went on to say the number of people moving to Florida and inflation are also leading to the rising housing costs and called for more homes to be built.
“You need to be able to expand that supply,” DeSantis said.
Nixon says more needs to be done now.
“We have currently in the state of Florida, $9 billion in reserves. That money could be tapped into to help people with downpayment assistance, to help fund housing programs that could help folks lower, kind of actually subsidize some of their rent,” Nixon said.
According to apartments.com, the average rent in Jacksonville is a little more than $1,400 a month.
Copyright 2022 by WJXT News4Jax - All rights reserved.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Anne Maxwell I-TEAM and general assignment reporter

03/22/2022

I haven't posted in a while as everyone knows the state of REAL ESTATE....But read this, then contact me if your ready to sell your home: Click on this;

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist and founder of research consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, is predicting a dramatic fall in the pace of home sales this year. In a research note, he projected that existing-home sales will drop roughly 25% from the annual pace of 6.02 million set in February to...

12/02/2021

Condo Q&A: Can an Owner’s POA Son Be on the Board?

A unit owner in our condominium has submitted a power of attorney (POA) naming her son as her power of attorney for all matters involving the condominium. The son has now submitted his name as a candidate for the board of directors on behalf of his mother, the owner of the unit.

Answer: No, he is not eligible. The Florida Administrative Code 61B-23.001(3), which is applicable to condominiums, provides that
“Where the Declaration, Articles of Incorporation or bylaws preclude non-unit owners from serving on the association’s board of administration, one acting under a power of attorney from a unit owner is similarly precluded from serving on the board unless he or she is a unit owner.”
If your bylaws require that directors must be owners or spouses of owners, then in your case, the son of the owner would not be eligible to run or serve on the board using a power of attorney.
Also, it is important to review the power of attorney when it is submitted. Unless it has language specifically allowing the person named as the POA to deal with matters involving the unit or parcel it may not be sufficient to allow the person to do so. You should consult your association’s legal counsel to determine if the POA is legally sufficient.

By Richard D. DeBoest

12/01/2021

By Kerry Smith
U.S. home prices rose 18.5% year-to-year in 3Q, but the increases in eight Fla. metros ranged from 20.5% in Central Florida to 34.7% in Cape Coral-Fort Myers.

Florida metros ranked in FHFA’s 3Q top 100 price study
2. Cape Coral-Fort Myers: 34.7% year-to-year, 9.8% quarter-to-quarter
8. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton: 25.6% year-to-year, 6.6% quarter-to-quarter
9. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach: 25.5% year-to-year, 5.7% quarter-to-quarter
10. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: 25.2% year-to-year, 6.5% quarter-to-quarter
15. Jacksonville: 23.3% year-to-year, 9.1% quarter-to-quarter
17. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise: 22.4% year-to-year, 6.5% quarter-to-quarter
24. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall: 21.2% year-to-year, 5.4% quarter-to-quarter
28. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: 20.5% year-to-year, 6.3% quarter-to-quarter
FHFA calculates housing prices using seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

CONTACT ME IF INTERESTED IN SELLING YOUR HOME!!!!!!

11/15/2021

ZILLOW TRIED......

NOVEMBER 12, 2021
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Zillow Sells 11% of Its iBuyer Inventory to an Investor
The firm sold about 20% of the homes Zillow Offers currently owns to an investment firm, leaving it about 7,800 – but it goes up to 16,000 after pending sales close.

NEW YORK – Zillow Group has sold around 2,000 homes across 20 U.S. markets from its defunct house-flipping program to the Pretium Partners investment firm. Sources say Pretium intends to rent out its new acquisitions.

Zillow said earlier that it plans to sell about 9,800 properties it owns, plus another 8,200 it was under contract to buy.

The real estate company expects to see a loss of 5% to 7% on these sales, and sources say Zillow received market price for the properties in its deal with Pretium.

Zillow recently announced the closure of its iBuying business because it could not accurately guess future home prices and was sustaining excessive financial losses. Pretium, which owns roughly 70,000 single-family homes, will operate them as rentals.

“We continue to invest in communities and improve access to housing throughout the U.S.,” a Pretium spokesperson said following the announcement.

Other major rental-home investors, including Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent, are also reportedly considering a bid for some of Zillow’s remaining housing inventory. Zillow anticipates that the full dismantlement of its home-flipping business will likely take place over multiple quarters.

Source: Wall Street Journal (11/10/21) Parker, Will

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10/11/2021

By KEEP CURRENT MATTERS:
10-11-2021
There’s a well-known economic theory – the law of supply and demand – that explains what’s happening with prices in the current real estate market. Put simply, when demand for an item is high, prices rise. When the supply of the item increases, prices fall. Of course, when demand is very high and supply is very low, prices can rise significantly.
Understanding the impact both supply and demand have can provide the answers to a few popular questions about today’s housing market:
• Why are prices rising?
• Where are prices headed?
• What does this mean for homebuyers?
Why Are Prices Rising?
According to the latest Home Price Insights report from CoreLogic, home prices have risen 18.1% since this time last year. But what’s driving the increase?
Recent buyer and seller activity data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) helps answer that question. When we take NAR’s buyer activity data and compare it to the seller traffic during the same timeframe, we can see buyer demand continues to outpace seller activity by a wide margin. In other words, the demand for homes is significantly greater than the current supply that’s available to buy (see maps below): This combination of low supply and high demand is what’s driving home prices up. Bill McBride, author of the Calculated Risk blog, puts it best, saying:
“By some measures, house prices seem high, but the recent price increases make sense from a supply and demand perspective.”
Where Are Prices Headed?
The supply of homes for sale will greatly affect where prices head over the coming months. Many experts forecast prices will continue to increase, but they’ll likely appreciate at a slower rate.
Buyers hoping to purchase the home of their dreams may see this as welcome news. In this case, perspective is important: a slight moderation of home prices does not mean prices will depreciate or fall. Price increases may occur at a slower pace, but experts still expect them to rise.
Five major entities that closely follow the real estate market forecast home prices will continue appreciating through 2022 (see graph below):
What Does This Mean for Homebuyers?
If you’re waiting to enter the market because you’re expecting prices to drop, you may end up paying more in the long run. Even if price increases occur at a slower rate next year, prices are still projected to rise. That means the home of your dreams will likely cost even more in 2022.
Bottom Line
The truth is, high demand and low supply are what’s driving up home prices in today’s housing market. And while prices may increase at a slower pace in the coming months, experts still expect them to rise. If you’re a potential homebuyer, connect with a trusted real estate advisor today to discuss what that could mean for you if you wait even longer to buy.

REACHOUT IF YOU HAVE ANY ??????'S

09/23/2021

AMAZING HOW CREATIVE CROOKS CAN BE:
SEC Brings First Crowdfunding Fraud Case
Crowdfunding continues to grow as a way to invest in real estate, but the SEC alleges that some investors pocketed money intended for cannabis real estate purchases.

NEW YORK – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has brought its first enforcement action against promoters of crowdfunding offerings, alleging three people defrauded investors of more than $1.9 million.

In a civil complaint filed on Monday, the SEC said Robert Shumake and his associates Willard Jackson and Nicole Birch conducted two fraudulent and unregistered crowdfunding offerings that they marketed as an opportunity to invest in cannabis real estate.

Among other things, the complaint alleges, the three defendants failed to disclose Shumake’s criminal history and diverted more than half of the funds they raised from investors for their own personal use rather than for acquiring commercial real estate and leasing it to cannabis growers.

The SEC also accused crowdfunding portal TruCrowd and its CEO, Vincent Petrescu, of allowing the offerings to proceed despite being aware of multiple warning signs of possible fraud or other harm to investors.

Crowdfunding offerings enable issuers to cast a wide net for potential investors, emphasizing the importance of full and honest disclosure, according to Gurbir Grewal, director of the SECs division of enforcement. As companies continue to raise funds through crowdfunding offerings, we will hold issuers, gatekeepers and individuals accountable, and enforce the protections in place for all investors, he said in a news release.

According to the SEC, Shumake, a Michigan businessman, was sentenced to 18 months’ probation after pleading guilty to illegally collecting upfront fees from clients of his mortgage audit company. While he was still on probation, he allegedly began taking steps to raise money from the public to enter the cannabis industries, forming Transatlantic Real Estate LLC and enlisting Birch, a Georgia attorney, as its nominal CEO.

From September 2018 through May 2019, Transatlantic raised more than $1 million from crowdfunding investors. Shumake and Jackson raised another $888,180 through an offering for 420 Real Estate from May 2019 through June 2020.

None of the money raised in either offering was used to acquire or improve cannabis real estate, the SEC said. None of the investors in either crowdfunding offering has received any return on their investment, and few investors have recovered any of the funds they invested.

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