06/02/2026
Everyone is watching the 30 year mortgage rate.
But in Florida, that is not the only number that matters.
The 30 year fixed is sitting around 6.56% this morning, up over the last few weeks. That is the headline everyone sees.
But for a coastal Florida buyer, the real question is not just:
“What is the rate?”
The better question is:
“What is the full monthly carrying cost?”
Because in Florida, that number includes rate, taxes, insurance, flood coverage, loan structure, appraisal timing, and whether your lender actually understands coastal property.
And right now, the math is starting to shift.
Florida insurance is finally moving in the buyer’s favor. Citizens Property Insurance is cutting premiums by an average of 8.7% statewide at spring 2026 renewal. New carriers have entered the Florida market. Citizens policy count has dropped sharply from where it was during the peak insurance chaos.
That matters.
Because a lot of buyers did not walk away in 2024 just because of the rate.
They walked away because the all in number did not work.
The payment was too high.
The insurance quote was ugly.
The debt to income ratio was tight.
The lender did not know how to structure the file.
The property was coastal, and the loan was treated like a regular inland deal.
That is where deals died.
But if insurance is coming down, even while rates are still elevated, the total monthly payment may look very different than it did 60 days ago.
Especially in markets like:
The Florida Keys
Marathon
Islamorada
Key Largo
The Lower Keys
Monroe County
Miami Dade
Broward
Coastal Florida
Here is the part most people miss:
A buyer’s monthly cost is not just rate.
It is rate plus taxes plus insurance plus the right loan structure.
If one piece of that equation changes, the entire deal can change.
And in the Keys, that matters even more. Monroe County’s median sale price is sitting around $1.07M, and the 2026 conforming loan limit for the Keys is $990,150. That means a lot of these deals are jumbo, near jumbo, or need a lender who knows how to structure coastal Florida financing correctly.
If your lender treats a Keys deal like a Tampa deal, your buyer may overpay or miss options they should have had on the table.
So here is my read:
The fence sitters from 2024 need to be rechecked.
The buyers who paused.
The buyers who barely missed.
The buyers who said “maybe later.”
The buyers who loved the house but hated the payment.
Some of those files may work now.
Not because rates crashed.
Because the full carrying cost changed.
If you have a buyer who looked at the Keys, Marathon, Islamorada, Key Largo, or the Lower Keys last year and walked away, send me the address.
I will run the actual numbers on the actual zip code with the actual loan programs that understand coastal Florida.
The first step is just getting the real math on the table.