11/18/2025
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2026 HOUSING OUTLOOK
My Take on NAR’s Forecast and Knoxville’s Growth
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The National Association of REALTORS® recently released its 2026 forecast, and the headline number that gets everyone’s attention is the projected 14% increase in home sales.
That’s a significant number, but the part that interests me most is what it could mean for mobility — and for markets like Knoxville that continue to grow even when other areas are moving more slowly.
I see this firsthand every week.
My team talks to families from all over the country who are considering a move to East Tennessee, and those conversations give me a clear picture of how different markets are behaving.
What I’ve witnessed this past year isn’t a downturn or a collapse elsewhere — it’s simply slower movement. Homes are taking longer to sell. Sellers are more hesitant. Buyers are more cautious. It’s been more of a “wait and see” environment than anything else.
But that slower pace has created something important:
A large group of people who want to move but haven’t felt confident enough to take the next step.
A lot of those people have their eyes on Knoxville.
That’s why NAR’s 2026 forecast stood out to me.
If the national market stabilizes — more predictable pricing, steadier interest rates, increased sales activity — then many of those homeowners who have been waiting may finally be able to sell and move forward.
And that has real implications for Knoxville.
We are already seeing strong in-migration. That is not a prediction — it is happening every single day. If national mobility increases next year the way NAR anticipates, we could see an increase on top of what is already a strong trend.
I don’t expect a dramatic surge or anything extreme. But I do believe Knoxville is positioned to experience two things simultaneously:
The natural rise in activity NAR predicts for the country, and
A second wave of people who have wanted to relocate but were waiting for more favorable timing.
For anyone in real estate, lending, development, or corporate hiring, this matters.
It affects construction planning, inventory expectations, workforce mobility, and the strategic decisions we should be thinking about over the next 12 to 18 months.
Knoxville has remained steady while many other markets have taken a slower pace.
If national confidence improves in 2026, our region could see even more momentum — especially in areas like Farragut, Hardin Valley, West Knoxville, and Maryville.
If you follow housing trends, work with relocating families, or track activity in East Tennessee, I would be interested in hearing your perspective. Always open to comparing what others are seeing in their markets.
— Todd Jewell
Broker | Relocation Specialist | Market Analyst
Living in Knoxville Real Estate Team
