06/16/2026
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/18yJ4B9u7o/?mibextid=wwXIfr
Good Tuesday morning, darlings.
Warming... This is going to be a long one and it's jam packed with info. While we would normally pause for pleasantries, harmless nonsense, and perhaps a little atmospheric gossip, today requires a more serious tune - because what Wednesday, June 17th is threatening to bring to the table has our full attention.
So let’s talk about it.
But first… Today.
TUESDAY - JUNE 16, 2026
Yesterday evening during our live update, we mentioned that an upgrade to a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather looked increasingly likely based on incoming model guidance.
Well, good morning. It verified.
The SPC has now expanded a Slight Risk across much of north-central and northeastern Indiana, while a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) encompasses much of the remaining northern half of the state.
Beginning sometime around/after 1 PM EDT, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize ahead of a weak cold front moving through the region. This should support the development of a broken band of strong to severe storms, including the possibility of low-topped supercells capable of:
▪️ Damaging winds
▪️ Severe hail
▪️ Frequent lightning
▪️ Torrential rainfall
▪️ A couple of spinny bois
The primary severe threat window today appears to be mid-afternoon through early evening, though we’ll cautiously extend concern through around 11 PM EDT, as lingering storms remain possible even after daytime heating fades.
In short: today deserves your attention.
But tomorrow? Tomorrow deserves your respect.
WEDNESDAY - JUNE 17, 2026
We are choosing our words carefully here because dramatic language is not something we toss around lightly.
The SPC has now introduced a Moderate Risk (Level 4/5) for a significant portion of west-central Indiana, surrounded by an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) extending farther outward. Tornado probabilities have increased, significant tornado parameters (SIGTOR) are deeply concerning, and forecast guidance continues trending in a direction that frankly has our attention. We honestly wouldn't be completely surprised to see them upgrade this to a High Risk (level 5/5) later this evening or tomorrow morning.
Now, before anyone spirals into their best Chicken Little impression:
This is NOT a guarantee, but this is absolutely the type of setup where being extremely weather aware is not optional.
Current guidance suggests two waves of storms, with the most concerning severe weather arriving during the evening and overnight hours, tracking northwest to southeast across the state.
And yes… That means we are once again discussing the added danger of a largely nocturnal severe weather event - very similar to what many experienced on June 11th.
EXPECTED STORM TIMING - JUNE 17–18
Wave 1: 12 PM – 4 PM EDT
A warm front will bring rounds of thunderstorms, heavy rain, and perhaps a few isolated severe warnings. Once this round exits, we should briefly recover.
And recover we may.
We are currently in one of the highest sun angle periods of the year, meaning if clouds clear, the atmosphere can recharge QUICKLY.
Wave 2: 6 PM – 3 AM EDT
This is the one keeping us up at night.
A powerful cold front is expected to trigger a wave of intense storms, with guidance increasingly supporting organized supercells embedded within a larger line - particularly across northern and central Indiana. While large tornadoes are the focus of many a forecast in, we're also eyeballing the potential for these storms to evolve into a damaging bowing segment farther south.
THREATS
ROUND 1
▪️ Winds to 65 MPH
▪️ Frequent lightning
▪️ Hail
▪️ Torrential rainfall
▪️ Isolated urban flooding
▪️ Isolated tornadoes
ROUND 2 - THE MAIN EVENT
▪️ Damaging winds 80+ MPH
▪️ Frequent lightning
▪️ Large hail
▪️ Torrential rainfall & flooding
▪️ Large, long-track, intense tornadoes
Now let us be crystal clear:
This is NOT the time for panic, this is NOT Armageddon, and this does NOT mean everyone is suddenly destined to see a tornado parked in their front yard. BUT - and this is important - those who do experience impacts could see serious ones. At this point, we would rather see people overprepared and mildly inconvenienced than underprepared and in danger.
Please take warnings seriously.
No porch watching.
No “it never happens here.”
No weather mythology about rivers, hills, county lines, or Uncle Bob’s lucky wind chime keeping tornadoes away.
If warnings are issued, move quickly and get to shelter. You should also expect tomorrow to be busy in terms of watches, warnings, and alerts.
COULD THIS BUST?
Yep... Sure could, and we honestly hope it busts and fails spectacularly. There's that off chance that the atmosphere doesn't recover after that first round of morning convection a we're spared the indignity of dealing with such potentially volatile nonsense. That's the outcome we WANT, but we're also not going to bank on it being the way the story pans out. Wishful thinking is great, but right now we need to be focused on the greater chance that this forecast verifies and we need to be on our A-Game.
As for us?
We’ll be doing what we do best - live radar coverage, warning updates, storm tracking, and field coverage to help keep you informed and as safe as possible.
ISC’s Josiah Maas will be live today at 2 PM EDT with updates and again tomorrow morning. We also anticipate additional live coverage this evening as today’s severe weather threat develops.
The next couple of days are likely to be chaotic, but we have caffeine, we have radar, we have concerns, and we’ll be here every step of the way.
Stay Aware. Stay Safe. And Don’t Get Twisted.
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