01/25/2024
What is the state of the real estate market, and what does it mean for you, if you are considering buying or selling a home?
2023 was one of the worst years for home sales in the last 10 years. Boulder county home sales decreased by 33% compared to the high of 2022 - which was the lowest level in the past 10 years. This mirrored home sales for the entire state of Colorado and most likely the nation.
An interesting fact is home prices did not decline. Home prices did level out and remained constant from their highs of 2022. The average price of a home in Boulder county in 2023 was 720K. The state of Colorado and an average price of $576K. Both were similar to the highs of 2022.
So, what are the reasons for this situation and what does it mean for you if you would like to buy or sell a home in 2024?
There were basically two reasons for homes sales to dramatically decline in 2023 and for home prices to remain constant at their historical highs.
I'm sure you are aware that mortgage interest rates increased dramatically recently. It went from a national low of 2.96% in 2021 to a national high of 6.8%. Interest rates have not been this high since 2001! The effect of this increase, combined with the historically high prices of homes, resulted in the inability of many homebuyers to afford home ownership. In addition, many homeowners looking to downsize or upgrade their homes decided to stay put. With high rates, the downsized home was costing as much or more than the owner's current home. And, for those that wanted to upgrade, the larger home with the high interest rate made a new purchase cost prohibitive.
With high interest rates and home prices high, buyers stopped buying and current homeowners decided not to sell. New home listings and resulting sales dramatically decreased. However, due to a shortage of inventory, home prices remained high!
What does this mean for you as a potential home seller and/or home buyer given these facts and the uncertainty in the US and the world right now? What can you expect in 2024 and what should you do?
The Fed stopped raising interest rates at the end of last summer. The expectation of pundits is there will be rate reductions this year, possibly up to four. This is the expectation even though inflation ticked up a bit in December. Given the belief that home prices will continue to increase in 2024, some real estate authorities are even recommending potential home buyers to buy now. If rates go down, you can refinance. If rates don't decrease, you will still be buying at the best rates and home prices possible. This same logic can be applied to home sellers who wish to purchase another home.
Yes, 2024 has the potential to be a volatile year. We are seeing increasing tension and wars between nations. Oil prices have decreased significantly in the last year which has reduced the inflation rate, but Mideast wars can greatly impact oil prices and can cause an increase in oil prices and inflation. December already had an increase in inflation and these things can cause interest rates to increase. Our Congress has been paralyzed and there are unknowns about whether they can agree on a budget. However, there was agreement on the extension of business tax deductions and the market is very optimistic. Another strong stock market year is possible. Historically, the economy and the market improves during election years. Yet, given some market indicators, there are market observers predicting a crash. As you can see, the variables and their possible effects are dizzying.
Can real estate crash? That is always possible, but it is a fact that new home building has significantly lagged the housing needs of new families. This means that demand will continue to outstrip available inventory. This should keep the real estate market buoyant and appreciating according to many real estate experts.
The future is difficult to predict. What we know is what’s happening right now. Given that our economy continues at its current pace, we have an idea of what the near term will bring. With this knowledge, pundits are recommending that you move forward, if you are considering buying or selling a home in 2024.
I hope this helps. Wishing you a safe and successful New Year. Ernie
Home prices continue to rise, according to the National Association of Realtors’ newest numbers. Falling mortgage rates could spur sales.