04/04/2026
# What's Really Happening in the Medina Lake Real Estate Market Right Now (April 2026)
*By Michelle Reichle Hi Energy Realty | Lakehills, TX | Medina Lake Real Estate Specialist/Real Estate Broker*
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If you've been driving out to Medina Lake lately, you already know what you're looking at. The lakebed is mostly dry. The water level is hovering around 4% capacity. And if you've been scrolling through listings, you've probably noticed that homes are sitting on the market a lot longer than they used to.
So what does that mean for you — whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or just wondering what your property is worth right now?
Let me break it down for you the way I'd break it down for a neighbor sitting at my kitchen table. No hype, no spin — just what I'm seeing on the ground here in Lakehills.
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# # The Lake Is Low. Let's Just Say It.
I'm not going to sugarcoat this. Medina Lake is at about 4% full as of April 2026. That's historically low — one of the lowest levels we've seen since the 2011–2015 drought that nearly drained it completely.
But here's what I also know, because I've watched this lake for 25 years:
**She's been here before. And she came back.**
After that 2011–2015 drought left Medina Lake looking like a dusty canyon, the lake recovered to 96.6% full by October 2016. Within about a year of meaningful rainfall, the whole thing turned around. Boats were back on the water. Properties were selling fast. Values climbed.
That history matters — not as a guarantee, but as context. This lake has a way of surprising people. The question isn't *if* she'll recover. The question is where *you* want to be when she does.
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# # What the Numbers Are Telling Us Right Now
Here's a snapshot of what the Medina Lake and Lakehills market looks like as of April 2026:
- **Median listing price in Lakehills:** ~$349,000
- **Average days on market:** 156–184 days
- **Active waterfront listings in Lakehills:** ~44 homes
- **Current lake level:** ~4% full
- **Bandera County median list price:** ~$455,000
Those "days on market" numbers tell an important story. A year or two ago, good lake properties were moving quickly. Right now, buyers have time — real time — to look, think, negotiate, and make smart decisions. That's a significant shift, and it creates opportunity on both sides of the transaction if you know how to read it.
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# # If You're a Buyer: This Is the Window
I'll be direct: the conditions right now are about as favorable for buyers as I've seen in years on Medina Lake. Here's why.
**Sellers are negotiating.** When homes sit for 5–6 months, sellers feel it. I'm seeing "motivated seller" language all over listings right now. I'm seeing price reductions. I've seen properties appraised at $546,000 that are listed at $495,000 — that's real money being left on the table for the right buyer. Motivated sellers are out here, and they're willing to deal.
**You can actually take your time.** When the lake is full and the market is hot, buyers feel pressure. You're making decisions in 48 hours, waiving inspections, offering over asking. None of that is happening right now. You can tour a property twice, bring your contractor out, dig into the water situation, ask every question you have. That's how smart real estate decisions get made.
**You're buying the land, the location, and the potential.** The Hill Country doesn't move. The 110 miles of Medina Lake shoreline doesn't move. The fact that you're 40 miles from San Antonio doesn't change. What you're buying right now — at low-water prices — is a front-row seat for the recovery. Buyers who understood this during the last drought are the ones who came out ahead.
**One important caveat:** this market rewards educated buyers. If you're going to buy near Medina Lake right now, you need to know what you're buying. Which brings me to something I have to be honest about.
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# # Do Your Homework on Water — Seriously
I'd be doing you a disservice if I didn't say this clearly: **water is the number one due diligence item on any property near Medina Lake right now.**
About 60% of domestic wells in the Bandera County area are not producing at normal levels. The drought that's affecting the lake is also affecting groundwater. Some homeowners have already had to drill deeper wells or bring in water at significant cost.
Before you fall in love with any property, you need answers to these questions:
- **What's the water source?** Well, community water system, or rainwater collection?
- **When was the well last tested?** What's the depth and current production rate?
- **Has the well had any issues in the past two years?**
- **What's the septic situation?** Is the system sized correctly for the property?
None of this is a dealbreaker by itself. But you need to know what you're walking into. This is exactly why working with someone who knows this area — not just someone with a real estate license who pulled the listing off MLS — makes a real difference.
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# # If You're a Seller: Here's the Honest Truth
Sellers are in a tougher spot right now, and I'd rather be straight with you than tell you what you want to hear.
The low water level has a real effect on buyer confidence, and that shows up in days on market and in what buyers are willing to pay. Some homeowners have told me they feel stuck — they don't want to sell at today's prices, but they're also carrying costs on a property they're not using.
If that sounds like you, here's the framework I use with my clients:
**If you don't *have* to sell — patience may be your best strategy.** If you can carry the property comfortably and you believe in Medina Lake's recovery (and I do), then waiting for better water levels and a stronger market could make sense. The lake has recovered before. Values followed.
**If you *do* need to sell — price it for today, not 2022.** The sellers who are moving properties right now are the ones who've priced realistically. Buyers aren't going to pay 2022 peak prices for a property on a dry lakebed. But correctly priced properties *are* selling — even in this market. The worst thing you can do is overprice, sit on the market for 6 months, chase the price down in drips, and end up selling for less than you would have if you'd priced it right from day one.
**Get a real market analysis.** Not a Zillow estimate. Not what your neighbor sold for three years ago. A real, current, honest look at comparable sales in this specific market. I do these for free, and I'll tell you the truth even if it's not what you were hoping to hear.
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# # What Makes Medina Lake Different — And Why It Still Matters
I want to say something that doesn't always make it into market updates, because I think it's important.
People don't fall in love with Medina Lake because of the data. They fall in love because of what it *is*.
The way the Hill Country opens up when you come over that last ridge on 1283 and the lake comes into view. The Cajun Festival every spring. The Hill Country Yacht Club. The way the stars look out here at night, away from the city lights. The community of people who've been coming to this lake for generations — some of them for six generations — who just love this place.
That doesn't go away when the water is low. And when the water comes back — as it has before — all of that is still here, plus you've got equity that you built by buying smart.
That's who this place is for. Not for people chasing trends. For people who love Medina Lake.
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# # Bottom Line
Here's where we are in April 2026:
✅ **Buyers:** Real opportunity exists right now — motivated sellers, longer days on market, below-appraisal deals available. Do your homework on water, work with someone who knows the area, and buy for the long view.
✅ **Sellers:** Be realistic about pricing. If you need to sell, price it for today's market and don't chase it down. If you can wait, that may be the smarter play — but get a current valuation so you're making that decision with real information.
✅ **Everyone:** This lake has been here since 1913. It has dried up before and it has come roaring back. The people who understand that — and who know this land — are the ones positioned to come out ahead.
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# # Ready to Talk?
I've been working this market in Lakehills and along Medina Lake for 25 years. I know which neighborhoods have water, which properties are priced right, which sellers are serious, and what the recovery story looks like for each type of property.
If you've got questions — whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know what your place is worth — reach out. I'll give you a straight answer.
**Michelle Reichle**
Lakehills, TX | Medina Lake Specialist/Real Estate Broker
📞 210-854-3060
📧 [email protected]]
🌐 WWW.HIENERGYREALTY.COM
*Search "Medina Lake real estate," "Lakehills TX homes for sale," "Medina Lake waterfront properties," "Bandera County real estate 2026"*
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*Information current as of April 2026. Market data sourced from MLS, Water Data for Texas, and local market observation. All real estate decisions should be made with the guidance of a licensed professional familiar with your specific situation.*
Lakehills TX Homes for Sale and Real Estate. Michelle Reichle specializes in Homes and Listings, representing both Home Buyers and Home Sellers.
