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06/10/2025

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09/16/2024

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates this week: Start small or begin big? The central bank is set to reduce rates for the first time since 2020 at its meeting on Sept. 17-18. Because officials have signaled greater confidence that they can make multiple rate cuts over the next several months, they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point.

Fed-funds futures traders have priced in a knife-edge decision between a standard cut of 25 basis points or an outsize move of 50 basis points. The uncertainty accompanies a debate over whether a jumbo rate cut would panic or reassure investors jittery about whether a slowing economy could suddenly slide into recession, wrecking corporate earnings and cutting the legs out from under a two-year-old bull market. Fed-funds futures traders on Friday afternoon priced in a 47% probability of a 50 basis point cut, up from 28% on Thursday. They saw a 53% probability of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

They have priced in 100 basis points or a full percentage point of cuts by year-end. With the Fed set to meet just three more times in 2024, including Wednesday, that implies expectations at least one of those meetings will feature a cut of 50 basis points. In the five easing cycles since 1990, when Fed rate decisions became much more transparent, the policymakers have come out of the gate with a half percentage point cut twice. The first was in January 2001. The collapse of the dot-com bubble was amplifying a slowdown in business and consumer spending at the same time the economy was clearly skidding into a contraction. The second was in September 2007 when U.S. stocks were trading near all-time highs but strains in the housing market were heralding the onset of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

While 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and mostly tied to Treasury yields and the economy, they are partly influenced by the Fed’s policy. Home loan rates have already started to fall, largely due to the prospect of a Fed-induced economic slowdown. As of Sept. 11, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was around 6.3%, nearly a full percentage point drop from where rates stood in May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.