02/01/2024
Read Below for a Comprehensive Economic Update from our Trusted Lender at Note Mortgage Tim Diebert:
Q4 GDP
The first reading of Q4 GDP showed the US grew at 3.3%, down from 4.9% in Q3 but still surpassing estimates of 2%. The PCE inflation reading was 1.5%, lower than the expected 2%, contributing to the higher GDP. Without it, GDP would have been 2.6%, closer to the estimate. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, remained at 2%, aligning with the Fed's target.
Bank Term Funding Program Coming to End
The Federal Reserve Board announced the cessation of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) for new loans on March 11. The program, which provided liquidity during stress last spring, will continue existing loans until that date. Afterward, institutions can access the discount window for liquidity needs. The interest rate for new BTFP loans until program expiration will be no lower than the current rate on reserve balances. This change is effective immediately, with all other program terms unchanged.
New Home Sales
In December, New Home Sales rose 8% to a 664,000 unit annualized pace, up 4.4% YoY. There were 453,000 new homes for sale, slightly higher than the previous report. With an 8.2 months' supply at the current pace, down from 9.2, there's a 1.46 months' supply when considering completed homes. The median home price is $413,200, down 3% from November and 14% from last year, influenced by increased sales in the $300-400k category.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims rose by 25,000 to 214,000, influenced by the holiday season. Continuing Claims increased by 27,000 to 1.833M. The persistently low Claims, according to economists at Bloomberg, may be misleading due to a historically low percentage of unemployed individuals applying for benefits, driven by factors like low eligibility rates and a reduced income-coverage ratio due to inflation. If these factors were similar to past recession levels, continuing claims would have been around 500k higher over the past year.
If you have any questions on the data above or have been thinking of buying or selling in this market, contact me today!
Mitch Fulfer
Broker-Salesperson
702-496-9302
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huntington & ellis, A Real Estate Agency
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