07/19/2026
MBS Road Signs 7-7-2026
Week of July 29, 2026 in Review
June hiring came in below expectations, while home prices continued to move higher with another month of solid gains. Here are the key takeaways.
• Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged
• Housing Construction Slows as Builders Remain Cautious
• Pending Home Sales Continue to Rise
• Economic Snapshot: Consumer Spending and Jobless Claims
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change following cuts late last year.
While the Federal Funds Rate does not directly set mortgage rates, it influences borrowing costs throughout the economy and can affect the overall interest rate environment.
What's the bottom line? The meeting provided an early look at Kevin Warsh's leadership style. He reiterated that the committee "will deliver price stability" and announced five new task forces focused on areas including Fed communications, economic data, the balance sheet, productivity and jobs, and the Fed's inflation framework.
Together, these changes suggest Warsh is looking to modernize how the Fed gathers information, communicates with the public, and evaluates economic conditions as it makes future policy decisions.
Housing Construction Slows as Builders Remain Cautious
The pace of new home construction slowed sharply in May. Housing starts, which measure new homes breaking ground, fell 15.4% from April to an annual rate of 1.18 million units – the lowest level since 2020 and well below expectations.
Building permits, a key indicator of future construction activity, also edged down 0.7% to an annual rate of 1.413 million units, largely in line with forecasts.
Builders continue to take a cautious approach. The National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index slipped two points in June to 35. Any reading below 50 indicates that more builders view market conditions as poor than good. Affordability challenges, elevated mortgage rates, and higher construction costs remain key concerns.
What's the bottom line? While the housing market needs more inventory to meet demand, bringing new homes to market takes time. Builders must move through the permitting, construction, and completion process before additional supply becomes available. If mortgage rates move lower and buyer demand increases, limited inventory could continue to support home prices in the months ahead.
Pending Home Sales Continue to Rise
Pending home sales, a key measure of signed contracts on existing homes, rose 3.8% from April to May, exceeding expectations and marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Sales were also 4.8% higher than a year ago, with gains reported in all four major U.S. regions.
What's the bottom line? Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, points to a "late spring buyer rush" as evidence that buyer demand remains stronger than many expected, even with elevated mortgage rates. If that demand persists while housing inventory remains limited, competition for available homes could stay elevated.
Economic Snapshot: Consumer Spending and Jobless Claims
Retail sales increased 0.9% in May, significantly exceeding economists' expectations. Sales also remained stronger than expected after excluding gasoline purchases, suggesting the gain was driven by broader consumer spending rather than simply higher gas prices at the pump.
On the labor side, new unemployment claims remain relatively low at about 226,000. However, that number may not fully capture labor market strain, as some displaced workers are turning to freelance or gig work instead of filing for benefits.
Meanwhile, continuing unemployment claims stayed elevated at 1.81 million, suggesting many job seekers are taking longer to find new employment.
Family Hack of the Week
This refreshing and delicious Mango Sorbet is perfect for celebrating National Mango Month or any time you're craving a cool, tropical treat. This recipe yields 4 servings.
Peel 2 very ripe mangoes, cut the flesh away from the pits, and chop into 1/2-inch chunks, about 4 cups total. Arrange the mango pieces in a single layer on a baking sheet, loosely cover with plastic wrap, and freeze until completely firm, at least 4 hours or overnight.
Meanwhile, preheat your oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit. Spread 2 tablespoons unsweetened coconut flakes on a rimmed baking sheet and bake for about 4 minutes, stirring halfway through, until lightly golden and toasted.
Once the mango is frozen, transfer it to a food processor. Add 1/4 to 1/2 cup hot water and blend until mostly smooth and creamy, stopping occasionally to stir with a spatula or wooden spoon. The finished texture should resemble a creamy sorbet with small bits of mango throughout.
Scoop the sorbet into 4 serving bowls, squeeze fresh lime juice over each serving, drizzle with honey, and top with the toasted coconut before serving.
What to Look for This Week
More housing news arrives Wednesday with the release of May's New Home Sales report. On Thursday, markets will focus on several key economic updates, including the Fed's preferred inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the final reading of first quarter GDP, and the latest jobless claims data.
Markets will also be watching whether the United States and Iran's agreement to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz helps ease pressure on energy prices, which could support a more favorable inflation outlook in the months ahead.
