Vince Smalls Real Estate Agent

Vince Smalls Real Estate Agent I am a U.S. Luke Air Force Base Retired Veteran. Please contact me if you are relocating to Phoenix. I am a retired Air Force Veteran.

Please contact me for all your real estate needs. I will ensure to put you in touch with an experience real estate agent.

12/02/2022

Good morning and happy Veteran's Day!! As predicted, yesterday's CPI report for October was a welcome bit of news; CPI came in at 7.7% and that was FINALLY LOWER than the anticipated 8.0%, but what was a real shot in the right direction was the core inflation that came in 6.3% which was much lower than the 6.5% expected. Furter, the CPI reports for the next 3 months should continue to support that inflation is cooling and relive the pressure on interest rates. I know if has been difficult out there and everyone is scared but have faith that the housing market will turn. Once rates start coming down (and they will), there will be a slew of buyers that come back into the market and with inventory still hovering never record lows, the real estate market has all of the signs of a robust recovery.

Conventional 6.375%
FHA 5.875%
VA 5.875%

10/19/2022

Good afternoon, hope you are doing well; last week's CPI did come in higher than anticipated; however, rates have remained relatively stable, though the CPI figure came in higher than expected, bthis should be the last reading we will see these elevated figures. On another note, there is an interesting anomaly going on in the market. In the last 77 years, only twice has the stock market and bond markets have both closed the year lower by 10% or more. The good news is that in both cases, the bond market declined significantly the following year, 1969, the bond market dropped by 18% in 1970, and in 2018, bond yields dropped by 29% in 2019. With many economists believing that the worst of the inflationary data is behind us, and since history likes to repeat itself, we should start seeing relief in rates by the beginning of the year and possibly see rate back down into the low 5s by the end of 2023. If you have any question, please let me know. Thank you.

Conventional 6.990%
FHA 6.500 %
VA 6.500%

10/11/2022

Last week's unemployment numbers did come in under expectations at 3.5% - expectations were 3.7%. Though it is typically good to have low unemployment numbers, this does not help when the Feds are trying to tame inflation as lower unemployment leads to higher wages, and thus, higher prices to the consumer. Also, with last week's statement from O.P.E.C. to reduce production by 2 million barrels a day, in conjunction with the lower unemployment, sent mortgage rates even higher. As rates are now getting into the 7's, there has been a resurgence of the 2/1 buydown program. This is a great program that can help a seller attrack buyers, and for buyers to help with getting lower mortgage payments for 24 months. If you would like to know more, please let me know and I'll send you some information. Thank you and have a wonderful week!

Conventional: 7.00%
FHA: 6.250%
V.A 6.25%

10/05/2022

This has been one of the worst years in history for the treasury markets; however, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The U.N. came out today and warned the Central Banks to halt or slow further rate increases to allow monetary policies a chance to take effect. As you know, the Feds came out of their last meeting with an aggressive plan of rate hikes, which many felt that had a greater chance of worsening the recession and prolonging any type of recovery. After the U.N.'s announcement today, the Bank of Austria surprised the world by increasing their Funds rate buy only .25% when they had forecasted a .50% hike. Enthought the CORE Personal Consumption Expenditures (C.P.E) - which is the benchmark indication by the Feds to gauge inflation, came in higher than anticipated (4.9%), many believe that the upcoming inflationary figures will show things cooling, and with the U.N. pressuring the Central Banks to ease up on rate hikes, it is starting to look like we might be reaching the crest of this wild ride.

Conventional 6.500%
FHA 5.750%
V.A. 5.625%

09/27/2022

Good afternoon, the markets are still reeling from the fed's comments last week, as you know, rates will follow inflation and the bond markets have been volatile to say the least. There will be continued pressure on the bond markets as inflation remains unchecked, however, there is light at the end of this tunnel. We should start to see improvements to the inflationary indexes by the end of the year, which should translate to lower interest rates by 1st quarter 2023. On a positive note, new home sales for the month of August rose 29% at a 685,000-unit annualized pace, which was much stronger than the 6% decline expected. Further, the National Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is considered the “gold standard” for appreciation, showed home prices fell 0.3% in July, but increased by 15.8% year over year, which is a decline from the previous reading of 18.1% in June, but still strong.

Conventional 6.875%
FHA 6.000%
VA 5.875%

09/24/2022

Happy Friday, I wish I had better news for you; Wednesday's Fed meeting left many in the market uneasy. The Feds increased the fund rate by 75 points as expected, however, what made the market react was their aggressive plan of rate hikes; they want another 125-point increase by the end of 2022, and a 20-point increase in 2023, but also their predictions on inflation for remained of the year and 2023. Further, they predicted that the US economy would slip into a recession by the 1st quarter of 2023. The markets over the past 3 days have deteriorated as many feel the Feds have lost control of inflation and will possibly damage the economy more than necessary.

Conventional 6.625%
FHA 5.750%
V.A. 5.625%

09/21/2022

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates tomorrow by .75%; however, there is much anticipation as to what the Fed comments are going forward. At the last meeting in July, there were repetitive comments made as to the pian we will feel with the economy, and with all of the negative data, the market is anticipating the same rhetoric. As for housing, I know there are nothing but bad headlines, but as I have mentioned, bad news sells headlines. We are coming off one of the hottest real estate markets in decades so of course the numbers will be declining, but what we are witnessing is the market correcting into a balanced market which what most predicted a year ago. We should see rates start to cool possibly by the first quarter of 23 as inflation will start showing signs of tapering, but until then, expect to see rates continue to creep up.

Conventional 6.250%
FHA 5.625%
V.A 5.500%

08/09/2022

Last week's jobs report did come hot, much hotter than anticipated. There were actually 2 reports that came out on Friday, a business and a household survey. The business survey is the report that came out with the 528,000 jobs added. With this report, there is a lot of modeling done and it does include part-time jobs. So, for example, if a person had a full-time job and a part time job, this would actually count as 2 jobs. The household survey collects data by calling households and this report showed a job loss of 168,000; so needless to say, very drastic findings. With the unemployment numbers, this is the one indicator the federal government is holding onto to keep from saying the economy is in a recession. The next recessionary report (C.P.I.) is due out on Wednesday, and even though the fed doesn't put a lot of emphasis on this report but, it will be interesting to see the results. Rates have increased a tad this week:

Conventional 4.875%
FHA 4.375%
VA 4.250%

04/10/2022

Latest Statistics

Good afternoon, not to report on rates for the last week; rates have held at 4.750% con, 4.250% FHA, and 4.125% VA.

~ Channing Lester

Address

13413 W. Jacobson Drive
Litchfield Park, AZ
85340

Opening Hours

Monday 8am - 5pm
Tuesday 8am - 5pm
Wednesday 8am - 5pm
Thursday 8am - 5pm
Friday 8am - 5pm

Telephone

+16233082468

Website

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