04/13/2026
Don't blame the boomers! It's the economy fluctuations for lack of inventory!
There’s a growing mismatch in the housing market, and it’s not about supply alone; it's about who holds it. Empty-nest baby boomers now own 28% of the nation’s large homes, while millennial families with children own just just 16%. Because most older homeowners are sitting on low mortgage rates or fully paid-off homes, they have little financial incentive to sell. There’s also a shortage of smaller, low-maintenance homes for them to downsize into. The result is gridlock; families can’t move up, and empty nesters can’t move out.
Graph via Redfin
For millennial buyers, this creates a double constraint. Not only are affordability challenges still present, but the specific homes they need - move-in ready, family-sized homes in desirable neighborhoods – are simply not hitting the market at scale. And when they do, they’re highly competitive.
There are early signs this could shift. Economists predict that more large homes may hit the market as affordability continues to improve. Agents in many areas are stating they are beginning to see older homeowners downsize, unlocking this inventory. Now, don’t expect a flood of new inventory; it will most likely be a trickle. And when these larger homes eventually hit the market, they will likely be highly competitive.
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