10/16/2026
Last week, we noted some early evidence that rates could be forming a ceiling, but warned that higher-than-expected inflation data this week could quickly undo the improvement. As it happened, inflation wasn’t just higher than expected, it was broad-based, showing up in categories that couldn't simply be explained by higher fuel costs. At first glance, that looked like the end of the road for the rate recovery, but then the paradox kicked in, and rates ultimately moved lower.
Mortgage rates just had their best week since late March, despite inflation reports that normally would have pushed them higher.