09/15/2026
Labor Day Made a Bad Week Look Worse
This week's comparison to 2025 comes with a big asterisk, as Labor Day fell on sept 1st 2025, but this year it fell on sept 7, 2026! Let's take a look at this week's key takeaways.
-Total new contract activity across the six jurisdictions fell from 1,018 contracts last year to 788 this year, a decline of 230 contracts, or 22.6%.
-Every jurisdiction was down, although the magnitude varied considerably. Prince William held up best at -5.3%, while Loudoun (-30.7%), Northern Virginia (-27.0%) and Montgomery (-26.8%) experienced the largest declines.
-Despite the sharp drop in contracts, the regional weighted average days on market increased from 38.1 days to 43.0 days, up 4.9 days, or 12.9%. That's a noticeable increase, although individual market results were quite mixed.
-Year-to-date, the region has now slipped modestly behind last year's pace: 39,018 contracts in 2025 versus 38,784 this year, a difference of 234 contracts, or -0.6%.contracts, or 2.2%.
Why this matters:
-A 22.6% decline in contract activity is an ugly number. But this is one of those weeks when the calendar really matters.
-Last year's September 6–12 period was comfortably removed from Labor Day. This year's period began the day before the holiday weekend and included Labor Day itself. That creates an unusually unfavorable comparison for 2026.
-So we shouldn't interpret this week's 22.6% decline as evidence that buyer demand suddenly fell off a cliff.
-At the same time, we shouldn't dismiss the result entirely. Contract activity has been trending lower since the beginning of August, and this week's report extends that pattern. The calendar probably made a weak week look considerably weaker, but it didn't create the broader late-summer slowdown.
Here are also some encouraging details buried in the numbers.
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