08/03/2023
"Responsible investment in commercial real estate requires a thorough understanding of the bond market.
Commercial real estate cap rates (yields), simply compete with other financial products that provide income, and people always shift to investing in whatever pays them the most risk-adjusted income.
And it happens quickly.
Think of how fast you shifted from your savings account to a high-yield money market, CD, or bond this year? It took you minutes, it was a no-brainer.
We are in a climate where bond rates are climbing substantially as governments continue to turn to issuing bonds in order to pay off creditors and keep up with rising costs.
The government needs to keep raising money, lots of it, and there is no end in sight.
Commercial real estate owners are convinced that the increase in rates will not last long, but signs simply point otherwise.
Recency Bias (placing too much emphasis on the trends of the last 5-10 years) is heavily impacting their decisions, and it's objectively irrational.
Many bought properties at 4% and 5% cap rates, and the only way to justify their decision now is to tell themselves that the rate rise is temporary and that those cap rates are coming back.
It's a self-preservation technique, and is counter to rational investing. The fact is, their equity is wiped out.
I am not here to make predictions, never have been, but I relay what I see as playing out, and what is actually happening on the ground.
Our team is underwriting exit cap rates based on the fact that commercial real estate is a financial tool that provides yield, and based on the fact rational investors know commercial real estate comes with inherent risk.
It's happening slowly, but the market is going back to understanding you need a spread between the cap rate and the borrowing rate.
In an environment where it costs 7% to borrow, a 50 to 250 basis point spread (depending on the asset characteristics) is required in order for the purchase of a stabilized property to make financial sense.
Yes, that means 9% cap rates for class B properties in secondary markets. Yes, it means 7.5% cap rates for class A properties in prime markets.
We should be there now. We are not, but we are clearly headed that way.
The people who think otherwise are making economic bets counter to what is happening.
If they could successfully make those bets, there are much easier ways for them to make big money without messing with a complicated asset class like real estate.
The new reality is here.
If you don't see it, your eyes are closed.
Invest accordingly." -
I wish I could chop this up and put it in my own words, but I honestly couldn't have said it any better myself.