06/22/2026
Nearly 70% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5%.
That means millions of people are sitting in houses they no longer want to be in, because the math of moving just does not make sense right now.
That is not a market problem. It is your problem as a buyer.
Here is what is actually happening. A homeowner who refinanced in 2021 at 3.2% would trade that rate for a 6.4% rate if they moved today.
On a $400,000 loan, that is roughly $660 more per month. Every month. For decades. So they stay. And the home you want never hits the market.
This is called the lock-in effect, and it is the single biggest reason inventory is tight right now. Not a lack of sellers.
Millions of homeowners want to move. They just cannot afford to.
Here is what I tell every buyer navigating this.
1. Stop waiting for inventory to flood back. The lock-in effect does not reverse until rates drop significantly, and most economists are not betting on that this year.
2. Get connected before homes go public. Some of the best opportunities right now are homes that have not hit Zillow yet. Estate sales, off-market deals, and strong agent networks can get you in front of listings other buyers never see.
3. Look at new construction. Builders do not have a low rate to protect. They want to sell, and many are offering rate buydowns that can get your effective rate well below market, which changes the monthly payment conversation entirely.
4. Target homes that have been sitting. Listings with 60 days or more on the market have sellers who are ready to deal. That is where the negotiating room lives right now.
The buyers who are winning right now are not scrolling apps and hoping the market opens up. They are working with an agent who knows where the real inventory is and how to get access to it.
Comment SEARCH and I will set you up with a private home search that goes beyond what the public apps show.
