02/16/2026
WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE – Greater Phoenix 💥
Mid-February 2026
🗝️ Sarah Nibarger
🏡 REALTOR®️ 🌵 Arizona
💎 Limitless Real Estate
📱 208-871-8722
📧 [email protected]
The Phoenix housing market is stable, but it’s leaning slightly toward buyers.
At first glance, the numbers look strong. But when you dig deeper, the data tells a more layered story. The average price per square foot increased, while the median price declined — a rare disconnect that signals strength in the luxury market and more pressure in the entry and mid-range price points.
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📊 Pricing Snapshot
Average Sales Price per Sq Ft: $312.25
⬆️ Up 3.8% from last month
⬆️ Up 0.3% year over year
Median Sales Price: $447,000
⬇️ Down 1.8% from last month
⬇️ Down 1.4% year over year
⬇️ Below December’s $459,990 level
The increase in average $/SF is largely due to more luxury closings, which skews the average higher. The median price, which better reflects the typical transaction, shows softening in the broader market.
Translation:
Luxury is holding strong. Entry-level and mid-tier homes are feeling more pricing pressure.
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🏡 Inventory is Up — and That Changes Everything
Active Listings (excluding UCB/CCBS): 22,593
⬆️ Up 9.6% year over year
⬆️ Up 9.7% from last month
Active Listings (including UCB/CCBS): 27,924
⬆️ Up 9.8% year over year
⬆️ Up 12.4% from last month
Many sellers who canceled listings in Q4 relisted in January, creating nearly a 10% jump in supply in one month.
More inventory = more competition = more buyer leverage.
⸻
📈 Demand: Improving, But Measured
Pending Listings: 4,233
⬇️ Down 4.0% year over year
⬆️ Up 26% from last month
Total Under Contract (Pending + UCB + CCBS): 7,564
⬆️ Up 2.2% year over year
⬆️ Up 31% from last month
Monthly Sales: 4,843
⬆️ Up 2.3% year over year
⬇️ Down 24% from December
Demand has improved since December, but not enough to fully absorb the additional supply. Even with mortgage rates around 6.2% (compared to over 7% last year), buyers are still cautious. Affordability continues to matter.
⸻
📉 Market Balance Indicators
Contract Ratio: 30.8
⬆️ Up from 25.8 last month
⬇️ Below 33.0 this time last year
Cromford Market Index: 88.1
(Under 100 = Buyer-Leaning)
⬇️ Down from 89.3 last year
These metrics point to a cooler, more balanced market — slightly tilted toward buyers, but not dramatically so.
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🔮 Short-Term Outlook
Projected Average $/SF: ~$312
Expected Range: $305–$318 (±2%)
Prices are expected to remain relatively flat over the next month. Demand has ticked up slightly, and new listing arrivals have slowed compared to last year, which could help stabilize pricing in the short term.
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What This Means
• Luxury homes are holding up well
• Entry and mid-range homes face downward pressure
• Inventory is meaningfully higher than last year
• Buyers have more options and leverage
• Sellers must price strategically
This is not a crashing market.
It’s not a booming market either.
It’s a competitive, negotiation-driven market where strategy matters more than optimism.
Curious what your home is worth?
Click the link below to get your free home valuation, I personally adjust these specific to your house:
https://homequityreport.com/sarahnibarger
🗝️ Sarah Nibarger
🏡 REALTOR®️ 🌵 Arizona
💎 Limitless Real Estate
📱 208-871-8722
📧 [email protected]
