Baikal Capital

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Baikal Capital Private Real Estate Investments.

Underwritten to the numbers.
🏝 Luxury Residential · Multifamily · Retail Value-Add
📍 Greater Miami Dade · Headquartered in Miami Beach, FL
📩 [email protected]
🔐 Accredited investors
🔗 baikal-capital.com

10/16/2026

Miami condo supply has been falling for seven straight months. Nobody is talking about it.

50.5% of all condo sales closed in cash — highest in America. 82% of $1M+ deals: all cash. Bulk buyers are quietly removing entire buildings from the market one buyout at a time.

The glut is still the headline. The shrink is already the data.

We invest where the numbers work — not where the story sounds good.

🔗 Baikal-Capital.com

The narrative says Miami condos are drowning in supply. The data says the tide turned: inventory has declined seven cons...
10/12/2026

The narrative says Miami condos are drowning in supply. The data says the tide turned: inventory has declined seven consecutive months — down 9.0% year-over-year to 11,495 listings, roughly a quarter below pre-pandemic — while prices slipped just 0.49%.

Who's buying? Cash: 50.5% of all condo sales, 82% of $1M+ purchases. The $200K–$300K tier surged 23%. And bulk buyers keep taking whole buildings off the market. Not a collapse — a transfer, from financed sellers to liquid buyers.

Twelve months of supply still reads "buyer's market," but the clean stock is what sells and the hardest stock is what lingers. Discount windows don't announce their closing. They close one cash sale at a time.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

10/09/2026

Standoffs don't end because someone changes their mind.
They end because someone runs out of time.

Q4 2026 just became the most deadline-dense quarter of this cycle. Four dates. Four pressure points. One window.
The market makes prices. Deadlines make deals.

🔗 Baikal-Capital.com

The next ninety days are the densest deadline calendar of this cycle. October 28: the Fed decides, with roughly 70% odds...
10/05/2026

The next ninety days are the densest deadline calendar of this cycle. October 28: the Fed decides, with roughly 70% odds of a second hike priced in. November 3: Florida votes on the largest property-tax change in its history — including halving the assessment cap on investment property to 5%. October through December: every condo association adopts a 2027 budget with reserves fully funded, no waivers — the assessment letters land this quarter. December 31: the year's loan extensions expire into higher rates, with roughly $300B of multifamily debt maturing in 2026.

None of it requires a prediction. It's on the calendar. And deadline sellers don't chase the highest number — they chase certainty, from buyers whose underwriting was done before the phone rang.

The market makes prices. Deadlines make deals.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

10/02/2026

The rescue isn't late.
It's not coming.
Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00%. No cuts before 2028. $300B of multifamily debt matures this year into rising rates.

At Baikal Capital our underwriting never depended on the pivot. It still doesn't.

🔗 Baikal-capital.com

Last Wednesday the Fed hiked — unanimously, 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023 — and 16 ...
09/28/2026

Last Wednesday the Fed hiked — unanimously, 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023 — and 16 of 18 projections show another this year. Year-end estimate: 4.1%, up from 3.8%. No cuts penciled before 2028.

Behind it sits inflation with no calendar: two unresolved conflicts keeping energy and supply costs elevated, with no clear exit to either. You can't schedule the end of a supply shock — so you can't schedule rate relief. Every business plan built on "survive until rates fall, then refinance" just lost its endgame, with roughly $300B of multifamily debt maturing this year into rising rates.

Our underwriting doesn't change, because it never depended on the pivot: today's cost of capital, basis below replacement cost, refinance as upside — never the thesis.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

Miami just ranked last in the nation for rent affordability. Read the denominator before the conclusion: the ratio divid...
09/21/2026

Miami just ranked last in the nation for rent affordability. Read the denominator before the conclusion: the ratio divides rent by gross income — against a wage base that has historically run below the Northeast's, and ignoring taxes entirely. A New York renter loses up to a tenth of each paycheck to state and city income tax before rent. Miami: zero. After tax, the gap largely evaporates — which is why renters vote with their feet: 94.6% occupancy, workforce at 96.3%, absorption matching supply.

And put the headline in its pattern. The same press called Dubai a mirage for twenty years while it became a global hub; Miami has drawn the crash calls and exodus predictions for fifteen — through all of which the buildings stayed full. We don't correct headlines for their politics, only for their record.

But discipline cuts both ways: we underwrite rents flat at today's wages, buy below replacement cost, and take the re-rating the headlines keep missing as upside we didn't pay for.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

The market is in a standoff — sellers anchored to 2021 prices, buyers to today's debt, volume far below average. Standof...
09/14/2026

The market is in a standoff — sellers anchored to 2021 prices, buyers to today's debt, volume far below average. Standoffs don't end when someone changes their mind. They end when someone runs out of time.

2026 is full of time: ~$300B of multifamily debt maturing this year (over $800B through 2028), delinquencies near 7%, reserve funding now mandatory, plus the quiet deadlines — estates, partnership splits, funds at end of life. Every one eventually makes a phone ring.
A deadline seller wants certainty, not the highest number. So our work is done in advance — submarkets chosen, basis set, expenses underwritten — and our deal-by-deal structure means capital isn't waiting in a queue. The market makes prices. Deadlines make deals.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.
Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

09/11/2026

Edgewater divides opinion. Ours: not worth it at these prices.

The bull case is real — bayfront land, a new skyline, a decade of momentum. But the current numbers tell a different story. Resale inventory sits at 12 to 20 months of supply — double a balanced market. Nearly half of listed units have taken price cuts. Condos that traded near $1,500 per square foot two years ago now clear at $1,000 to $1,200. And the market splits in two: boutique, owner-occupied buildings hold their value, while the investor-heavy glass towers — most of the neighborhood — soften fastest.

Meanwhile, pre-construction keeps launching above resale. That's paying tomorrow's price, today, in a submarket still correcting yesterday's — for commodity product a dozen nearby towers can replicate.

Growth here is real, but it's sporadic — block by block, building by building, not a rising tide. When the product is commodity, only basis protects you. At today's entry, it doesn't.

We invest where the numbers work — not where the story sounds good.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.
Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

Miami’s coast has entered its buyout era. With 2026 reserve mandates in force and financing blacklists narrowing buyers ...
09/07/2026

Miami’s coast has entered its buyout era. With 2026 reserve mandates in force and financing blacklists narrowing buyers to cash, aging condo buildings are increasingly worth more as land than as homes — and developers are acquiring them whole at an accelerating pace.

But the wave has a failure rate. This month, a $160M offer for the Mutiny in Coconut Grove expired short of the 80% owner approval Florida requires — the third failed attempt at that building in under two years. In January, an Edgewater tower’s termination was reversed in court. The law lets as little as 5% of voting interests block everything.

The discounts on units in “terminal” buildings only work if the exit is executable. So we underwrite the exit before the entry — declaration, vote math, carry, land value. When it pencils, this is structural mispricing at its purest. When it doesn’t, a discount is a trap with a view.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

Address

1000 5TH Street
Miami Beach, FL
33139

Opening Hours

Monday 9am - 5pm
Tuesday 9am - 5pm
Wednesday 9am - 5pm
Thursday 9am - 5pm
Friday 9am - 5pm

Telephone

+17864762857

Website

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