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Baikal Capital

Name: Baikal Capital
Address: 1000 5TH Street, Miami Beach, FL, 33139, US
Telephone: +17864762857

Private Real Estate Investments.

Underwritten to the numbers.
🏝 Luxury Residential · Multifamily · Retail Value-Add
📍 Greater Miami Dade · Headquartered in Miami Beach, FL
📩 [email protected]
🔐 Accredited investors
🔗 baikal-capital.com

08/31/2026

Miami runs on announcements — and the latest is a $3B, 5,700-unit megaproject in Little River, “targeted” to break ground in 2026 on an eight-year build-out, in a neighborhood that’s been “next” for the better part of a decade.

We’ve seen this movie. Flagler Street: started 2016 at $13M, now $33M and unfinished. The Signature Bridge: $866M, unlikely to open before 2030. The gap between press release and ribbon-cutting in this market is measured in years — and capital committed on the announcement carries the whole wait.

Corridors are re-priced by infrastructure that exists, not master plans that can be resized or shelved. If a deal’s value depends on somebody else’s groundbreaking, we pass. The district may well get built — we just don’t pay today for what doesn’t exist yet.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

08/24/2026

"Bullish on Miami" isn't a strategy. We're bullish on starved supply and honest basis — and bearish on premiums and gluts, in the same city, at the same time.

Leaning in: Overtown (workforce rents ~+13%), workforce Miami Beach (~+10%), West Palm Beach (luxury vacancy ~6.4%, one of the nation's sharpest declines), and grocery-anchored neighborhood retail (sub-5% vacancy, below replacement cost).

Staying cautious: new Brickell luxury (rents ~−4%, ~4.7% caps, supply-exposed), new Class A broadly (9%+ vacancy, two months free), Downtown pre-construction (a 12–18% premium for a rendering), and $100M+ trophies (a scarcity play, not a basis play).

Discipline is mostly a no-list. That's the job.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

08/17/2026

The largest apartment supply wave in 40+ years has crested, and South Florida is ahead of the curve: in March 2026 Miami led the South region on both occupancy (6.6% vacancy) and rent growth (+0.7% YoY), with Q1 net absorption up 40% year-over-year and ~10,000 new professional-services jobs through April.

But the average lies. Workforce and Class B/C units sit near 3% vacancy while new luxury product runs above 9% (Miami-Dade ~10.5%). Overtown rents rose ~13% and Miami Beach ~10% over the year, while Brickell and Allapattah slipped ~4%. Same city, opposite markets.

So we don't buy "Miami multifamily." We buy workforce-tier value-add in supply-starved submarkets, on a basis that works on today's soft rents. Supply pressure fades after 2026 — inventory growth slows to ~1.6%, the lowest in a decade — while demand keeps coming. Soft rents at entry, a fading headwind, and the tightening as free upside.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

08/10/2026

We underwrite far more deals than we buy — and most die for the same handful of reasons.

Expenses shown as yesterday’s numbers (insurance and taxes always reset higher in Florida). Above-market anchors with near-term expirations dressed up as “guaranteed traffic.” A basis that lands above replacement cost, so there’s no margin of safety. Upside that only works on a refinance today’s rates won’t support. Deferred capex the pro forma quietly left out. And the biggest tell of all — a story (“it’s Miami, it always goes up”) standing in for real numbers.

Miss one and the return is thinner than the pitch. Miss two and it’s a loss. That’s why we say no to most of what we see.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

08/03/2026

In a Florida value-add deal, the return is made on the reposition — renovate, re-tenant, push rents. But one line item can erase the whole NOI lift: insurance.

The 2026 news is good — litigation down 35%+, reinsurance easing, 17 new carriers, Citizens’ first meaningful rate cut in a decade — but stabilizing isn’t cheap, and the premium you inherit at closing is rarely the one the seller showed you.

So we underwrite it to today’s binder. In multifamily, coastal coverage can top a fifth of operating expenses, which makes hardening capex — roof, impact glass, wind mitigation — part of the value-add, re-rating the premium down. In strip centers, insurance passes through to tenants only to the ceiling they can bear; price it wrong and you get a vacancy, not just a thinner margin. The insurance and tax reset at acquisition is our first stress test.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

07/27/2026

The Miami Beach luxury market has split in two. At the very top — Indian Creek, Star Island — scarcity is still setting records: a $105M vacant lot, a $200M listing, all-cash buyers paying for what can’t be replicated. But one tier down, rising inventory is quietly repricing mid-luxury and older product. Miami isn’t one market anymore; it’s diverging.

At $100M+, you’re buying scarcity. Everywhere else, price and value are separating again — and that’s where basis wins. We don’t buy trophies. We buy mispriced basis.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

07/20/2026

In Miami, the "retail is dying" case rests on restaurants closing and Lincoln Road half-empty. Both are real — and neither is the market we buy.

Lincoln Road is a trophy high street that shows what happens when you overpay. We do the opposite. We buy value-add neighborhood strip centers at a low price per square foot — below replacement cost — where you physically cannot build new for what we pay, with Florida neighborhood vacancy sub-5% and new supply set to fall 37% this year.

The entry basis is the entire thesis. Buy it cheap enough, and the value-add is mechanical: a long-term anchor holds the traffic while inline shops re-price to market every few years. No hot market required. No refinance required. Just basis.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

07/13/2026

Downtown Miami is two markets at once: a buyer's market in resale, and a seller's premium of 12–18% on pre-construction towers that haven't been built. Buyers are wiring 40–50% up front, with only the first 10% protected in escrow.

We don't underwrite renderings. We buy real assets on real numbers, deal by deal, with our own capital alongside yours — where the numbers work, not where the story sounds good.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

07/06/2026

The multifamily deals failing in 2026 didn’t fail because the asset class is bad. They failed on structure: floating-rate bridge debt, blind pools, and a business plan that only worked if rates fell.

We’re the inverse on every line — deal by deal, no cross-collateralization, underwritten to today’s rate, with our own capital alongside yours as GP. When the structure holds, distress is where disciplined capital goes to work.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

06/29/2026

The Fed held again on June 17 and priced cuts out of 2026. Waiting for cheaper debt has been a losing position for three years running.

We don’t underwrite to a refinance. Every deal has to clear at today’s rate — a future cut is upside we don’t rely on. Buy the basis, not the forecast.

Club deals and segregated accounts for qualified investors and family offices. Request access via the link in bio.

Informational only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice.

Address

1000 5TH Street
Miami Beach, FL
33139

Opening Hours

Monday	9am - 5pm
Tuesday	9am - 5pm
Wednesday	9am - 5pm
Thursday	9am - 5pm
Friday	9am - 5pm

Telephone

+17864762857

Website

http://www.baikal-capital.com/

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