01/23/2023
🏡 2023 Start with very little demand and a subdued inventory . Real Estate activity will be suppressed as the year gets underway!
The issue is that housing has not had a normal, slow start to the year since 2020. In both 2021 and 2022, the market was insanely hot from day one, plagued with very few homes available and insatiable demand due to an extremely low mortgage rate environment. Buyers were tripping over each other to purchase every single home that came on the market, multiple offers were the norm, homes sold way above their asking prices, and the housing market felt like an out of control train where it was very challenging for buyers to secure a house. In looking at the details, the about face in housing is due to sky high mortgage rates coupled with a tremendous run-up in home values. In both 2021 and 2022, mortgage rates experienced back-to-back record low starts to the year at 2.65% and 3.22%.
📈Today's 6.14% is the highest start to a year since January 2008. As a result, demand, a snapshot of the last 30 days of pending sales activity, is at its lowest level to begin a year since tracking began in 2004 at 900 pending sales. It is slightly lower than demand level in 2008.
🏡 Today, the inventory might be at the second lowest level to start a year, even beating 2021, but when it is combined with record low demand, the Expected Market Time is no longer at insane levels. Instead, it is like 2016 through 2018 and 2020 with a market time of 84 days.
WARNING TO SELLERS: If you are holding out for the Spring Market in anticipation of a quick sale and a price higher than the last comparable sale, that simply will not happen. Instead, sellers will be looking at a much more sluggish market with muted demand and buyers taking their time to purchase. Proper pricing is crucial to find
success. WARNING TO BUYERS: While home values may be falling right now, lowball offers are a waste of everybody's time including your own. Distressed sellers, foreclosures, and
short sales are NOT components of today's market. There is a real lack of panic selling. Most sellers do not have to sell, so there will not be major "deals" like there were during
the Great Recession.