12/19/2025
Rates dropped in the last week of September and since then they’ve mostly leveled off. Conventional rates have been bouncing around in a tight range, roughly between 6% to 6.25% on conventional loans. FHA and VA rates have stayed in the mid to high 5s over that same stretch.
This week, cooling inflation and softer jobs help rates move back down towards the lower end of that range.
This week brought more confirmation that the economy is slowing, even if markets were slow to react at first. The labor market continues to lose momentum, with rising unemployment, weak job growth, and clear signs that full time work is being replaced by part time jobs.
Inflation was the bigger story, though, as both headline and core CPI came in much cooler than expected, driven by shelter finally catching up to reality.
That combination helps keep the Fed firmly in cut mode, even if they move more slowly with future cuts. Next week will be quieter, but the trend is clear and it favors lower rates if the data stays on this path.