07/17/2026
Cooling inflation and the growing conflict with Iran played tug of war with mortgage rates this week.
Lower-than-expected inflation reports helped rates improve, but rising oil prices and new concerns about inflation pushed back against those gains. Rates moved up and down throughout the week and, by Friday, ended about where they started the week before.
Cooler inflation also lowered expectations for more Fed rate hikes, but the conflict with Iran and higher oil prices kept the possibility of another hike on the table. Right now, markets expect one more rate hike this year, with a smaller chance of two.
At the same time, we’re starting to see higher borrowing costs slow parts of the housing market. Whether rates improve from here may depend on whether inflation keeps cooling and whether tensions in the Middle East ease.