03/16/2020
Hope that everyone is safe, home and taking precautions to protect yourself and your family during these uncharted and uncertain times. The goal is to emerge on the "other side" as healthy and happy individuals, so let us hope and pray that such is the case.
As far as commercial real estate and business, while nobody knows for certain, I will make some predictions and suggestions for the future as I see it:
1) Once office workers and large companies see the benefits as far as productivity from employees working at home and remotely, there will be less need for large office spaces for a portion of American companies. This will create increased vacancy for office complexes and reduced property values too
2) On the retail side, there will clearly be a bounce in activity to retailers from customers who have been in their homes for weeks or months, there will also be business failures. This will include marginal national retailers, struggling mom and pop businesses, and those who just cannot compete with on-line shopping convenience or pricing. Shopping Mall owners too will continue to struggle - as an example Simon (SPG) who purchased competitor Taubman and retailers Forever 21 just prior to Corona 1 at a huge valuation. This could be the beginning of the end for SPG.....
3) Hopefully whatever economic stimulus or protective measures are put in place by Congress and the Fed will not only target and safeguard big business, government employees, hourly and salaried employees, but also small business owners, sole proprietors and independent contractors. Such folks not only pay for their own health insurance, self employment taxes, but also generally have no retirement, disability, sick leave or other "safety net" benefits afforded to those in our society who get a paycheck every two weeks and have numerous protection measures in place.
Besides all else, protect yourself and your family. Be honest and respectful of your actions as they relate directly to others as well as tertiary impacts that are yet to be determined. Some short term pain for us all is okay if the greater good is to save a life of someone's parent, grandparent, or friend (or an unknown person) who does not have the benefit of living a healthy life ....
Hug your loved ones and waive hello to others from a distance.
Be safe