01/28/2026
Berkadia’s 2026 Multifamily “Headline”
Berkadia’s core message: 2026 is a recalibration year—the supply wave is fading, demand is normalizing, and fundamentals are expected to drift back toward pre-pandemic norms, but local market divergence matters more than national averages.
Berkadia-2026-Multifamily-Forec…
Key national forecasts / markers (Q4 2026 unless noted):
• Occupancy: 95.0% (down 10 bps YoY)
• Effective rent: $1,915 (up 2.4% YoY)
• Rent share of wallet: 24.9% (down 80 bps YoY)
• Income growth tailwind: Median HH income $92,143 (up 5.3% YoY)
• Employment / unemployment: +1.1% employment, 4.0% unemployment (down 30 bps YoY)
• Capital markets snapshot (2025 averages): 5.7% cap rate, $227,101 price/unit
• Transaction mix (2025 YTD): heavier share of older vintage assets (largest slice: 1979 & earlier)
What this means for your clients in New England
Berkadia flags that national numbers “mask significant regional variation,” and that’s especially true in Boston-area submarkets where barriers to new supply and sticky demand drivers can make the “recalibration” show up differently.
Practical implications:
• Operating stability > aggressive growth assumptions. With national rent growth forecast at ~2.4%, underwriting should stay conservative and focus on durable occupancy/collections and controllable expenses.
• Concessions may persist but should normalize. Berkadia expects concessions to stabilize above pre-pandemic norms, so owners should treat concessions as a managed lever, not a temporary anomaly.
• Older assets are in focus. The 2025 sales mix skewing older suggests continued investor appetite for value-add / operational lift.
If you own or invest in multifamily in New England or Florida and want to sanity-check your 2026 plan—rent growth, concessions, capex, refinance timing, or buy/sell strategy—reach out. The Genesis Group helps investors and owners turn market forecasts into property-level action plans.