06/03/2026
If you're wondering what to expect of the housing market in 2026:
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, expects the U.S. housing market to improve in 2026, although his outlook has become more cautious during the year.
Key points from Yun's 2026 forecast
Existing-home sales: Originally forecast to rise about 14% in 2026, reflecting lower mortgage rates, improving inventory, and pent-up buyer demand.
Home prices: Expected to increase approximately 4% nationally, with no nationwide price decline anticipated due to continued housing shortages.
Mortgage rates: Projected to average around 6%, improving affordability compared with recent years.
Inventory: More homes are coming to market, giving buyers additional choices and reducing the intense bidding wars seen during the pandemic years.
Affordability: Yun believes wage growth should begin to outpace home-price appreciation, helping buyers gradually regain purchasing power.
Recent revision to the forecast
*** In April 2026, Yun lowered his sales forecast due to rising mortgage rates, higher energy costs, and softer economic growth. His revised outlook calls for:
Existing-home sales growth of about 4% rather than 14%.
New-home sales roughly flat instead of increasing 5%.
Home prices still expected to rise about 4%.
Bottom line
Yun still expects 2026 to be better than the past few years, with more inventory, modest price appreciation, and improved transaction activity. However, instead of a dramatic rebound, the market now appears headed toward a gradual recovery, with mortgage rates remaining the biggest factor affecting buyer demand.
For the Nashville/Middle Tennessee area specifically, the forecast is generally favorable because inventory has been rising and population growth remains strong, though affordability challenges persist.
What do you think of this forecast?
If you're thinking it's time to buy or sell, call me!
William ClenDening
Compass
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M: 615-405-9944 Preferred
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