07/03/2026
📢 SIESTA KEY RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT
🗓️ Reporting Period: June 1 – June 30, 2026
📊 Data Current As Of: July 3, 2026
💼 Prepared By: Ciro A Rocco PA, Certified Waterfront Specailist & Real Estate Advisor
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🏡 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Siesta Key residential market represents a highly specialized, luxury barrier-island environment. An analysis of the data reveals two distinct property ecosystems: a luxury **Condo, Townhouse, & Villa** market and an ultra-exclusive **Single-Family Residence** market.
Across both property types, transactional dynamics show steady activity in intermediate tiers, while properties crossing the multi-million-dollar luxury thresholds see significant inventory expansion, shifting negotiation leverage over to buyers.
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📈 TIER-BY-TIER MARKET ANALYSIS
By tracking Months of Inventory (MOI) and Absorption Rates for June, we can isolate exactly how velocity behaves across different property styles and price segments.
SECTION A: CONDOMINIUMS, TOWNHOMES, & VILLAS
Focusing on multi-family island properties.
1️⃣ The Intermediate Condo Market ($500,000 or Less)
• Active: 49 | Sold: 7 | Pending: 4 | Expired: 2
• Months of Inventory (MOI): 7.00 Months *(Leaning Buyers' Market)*
• Absorption Rate: 12.50%
• Pricing Dynamics (Active vs. Sold): $365,229 vs. $397,714
• Proxy List-to-Sold Price Ratio: 108.89%
💡 Takeaway: This segment shows a unique inversion where closed sales are averaging higher than remaining active stock, though overall inventory is elevated at a 7-month supply.
2️⃣ The Mid-Tier Condo Market ($501,000 to $750,000)
• Active: 77 | Sold: 11 | Pending: 5 | Expired: 3
• Months of Inventory (MOI): 7.00 Months (Leaning Buyers' Market)
• Absorption Rate: 12.50%
• Pricing Dynamics (Active vs. Sold): $627,121 vs. $601,500
• Proxy List-to-Sold Price Ratio: 95.91%
💡 Takeaway: A healthy baseline tier for island condos, with buyers securing a steady ~4% discount off the active list average.
3️⃣ The Upper Condo Market ($751,000 to $1,000,000)
• Active: 27 | Sold: 8 | Pending: 1 | Expired: 0
• Months of Inventory (MOI): 3.38 Months (Seller's Advantage)
• Absorption Rate: 22.86%
• Pricing Dynamics (Active vs. Sold): $883,996 vs. $888,875
• Proxy List-to-Sold Price Ratio: 100.55%
💡 Takeaway: This is the most competitive multi-family tier on the island! Tight supply and an absorption rate over 22% are forcing buyers to pay top dollar.*
4️⃣ The Luxury Condo Market ($1,001,000 to $2,500,000)
• Active: 49 | Sold: 6 | Pending: 8 | Expired: 6
• Months of Inventory (MOI): 8.17 Months (Buyers' Market)
• Absorption Rate: 10.91%
• Pricing Dynamics (Active vs. Sold): $1,474,467 vs. $1,554,167
• Proxy List-to-Sold Price Ratio: 105.41%
💡 Takeaway: Inventory swells past an 8-month supply here, giving luxury condo buyers maximum options.
5️⃣ The Ultra-Luxury Condo Market ($2,501,000 to $4,000,000)
• Active: 4 | Sold: 0 | Pending: 0 | Expired: 1 • Months of Inventory (MOI): N/A (No June Sales)
• Absorption Rate: 0.00%
• Note: Inventory remains quiet with only 4 active listings on hand.
6️⃣ The Elite Condo Market ($4,000,000+)
• Active: 8 | Sold: 0 | Pending: 0 | Expired: 0 • Months of Inventory (MOI): N/A (No June Sales) • Note: 8 ultra-luxury multi-family units await buyers at this pinnacle tier.
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SECTION B: SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES
Focusing on detached single-family island estates.
1️⃣ The Mid-Tier Single-Family Market ($501,000 to $750,000)
• Active: 2 | Sold: 0 | Pending: 2 | Expired: 0 • Months of Inventory (MOI): N/A (No June Sales)
💡 Takeaway: This entry-point single-family tier is completely inventory-starved. With only 2 active properties available, both current pending contracts show strong velocity.
2️⃣ The Upper Single-Family Market ($751,000 to $1,000,000)
• Active: 7 | Sold: 2 | Pending: 2 | Expired: 0
• Months of Inventory (MOI): 3.50 Months *(Healthy Balanced Market)*
• Absorption Rate: 22.22%
• Pricing Dynamics (Active vs. Sold): $927,114 vs. $914,000
• Proxy List-to-Sold Price Ratio: 98.59%
💡 Takeaway: Extremely stable. Properties are holding value beautifully and turning over efficiently within a 3.5-month supply window.
3️⃣ The Luxury Single-Family Market ($1,000,000 to $2,500,000)
• Active: 35 | Sold: 6 | Pending: 4 | Expired: 4
• Months of Inventory (MOI): 5.83 Months *(Balanced leaning Buyer Advantage)*
• Absorption Rate: 14.63%
• Pricing Dynamics (Active vs. Sold): $1,670,829 vs. $1,422,500
• Proxy List-to-Sold Price Ratio: 85.14%
💡 Takeaway: A major transition point. Supply expands near 6 months, and buyers are successfully negotiating substantial discounts—averaging nearly $248,000 off active baseline expectations.
4️⃣ The Ultra-Luxury Single-Family Market ($2,500,000 to $4,000,000)
• Active: 32 | Sold: 4 | Pending: 4 | Expired: 2
• Months of Inventory (MOI): 8.00 Months *(Buyers' Market)*
• Absorption Rate: 11.11%
• Pricing Dynamics (Active vs. Sold): $3,161,313 vs. $3,120,938
• Proxy List-to-Sold Price Ratio: 98.72%
💡 Takeaway: Despite stretching to an 8-month buyers' market supply, closed sales are finishing exceptionally close to active averages, indicating high value-retention for premium island addresses.
5️⃣ The Elite Single-Family Market ($4,000,000+)
• Active: 51 | Sold: 0 | Pending: 0 | Expired: 5 • Months of Inventory (MOI): *N/A (No June Sales)* 💡 Takeaway: Significant capitalization is resting at the top of the island market, with 51 marquee estates currently active and looking for buyers.
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🎯 STRATEGIC MARKET TAKEAWAYS
🏝️ The Multi-Family Sweet Spot: For island condos and villas, the sub-million-dollar tier ($751k - $1M) is the absolute sweet spot. With a fast 3.38-month supply, demand remains heavily concentrated here.
📉 The Luxury Negotiation Gap: Once single-family homes cross the $1M line, inventory options broaden significantly for buyers. In the $1M - $2.5M bracket, buyers are commanding the largest leverage on the island, cutting closing prices by an average of nearly 15% off the active market index.
🛑 The Premium Stagnation Risk: High-end pricing mismatch is evident across the island; multiple luxury tiers reported zero closed sales in June alongside notable pools of active and expired inventory. Hyper-accurate positioning is vital to prevent properties from sitting.
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