John Todderud - Cardinal Oak Investments, Newcastle, WA (2026)

06/22/2026

🚨 One of the biggest mistakes I see investors make when analyzing multifamily deals?

They trust the numbers… without questioning the assumptions behind them.

A deal can look incredible on paper, but a few overly optimistic assumptions can completely change the outcome.

Before I look at projected returns, I always ask:

➡️ Are rent growth assumptions realistic?

➡️ Are expense increases being underestimated?

➡️ Is the vacancy rate too aggressive?

➡️ Is the exit cap rate conservative enough?

Great investing isn't about finding a deal that works only in a perfect scenario. It's about finding a deal that still works when things don't go as planned.

📌 Save this as a reminder for your next deal analysis.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥? 👇
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𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘮𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘧𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨. 𝘎𝘰 𝘵𝘰 𝘮𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘬 "𝘑𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺".

𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘫𝘶𝘯𝘬.

𝘞𝘦 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦.
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06/17/2026

The biggest underwriting mistake isn’t the rent roll, it’s assuming today’s rents tell you what the property is worth.

The rent roll tells you what tenants are paying today, but comparable rents tell you what the asset should be producing tomorrow.

Too many investors focus on current income and miss the hidden upside sitting right in front of them.

The best deals are often the ones where the gap between actual rents and market rents reveals a clear business plan.

𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥, 𝐝𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐬?
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𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘮𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘧𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨. 𝘎𝘰 𝘵𝘰 𝘮𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘬 "𝘑𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺".

𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘫𝘶𝘯𝘬.

𝘞𝘦 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦.
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06/15/2026

Most underwriting templates are missing a huge piece of the puzzle when it comes to projecting rent growth.

Using a flat percentage every year might make the spreadsheet look clean, but markets rarely behave that way.

I’ve found that thinking in actual dollar increases often paints a much more realistic picture of future performance.

Small assumptions can dramatically change how a deal looks over a 5 year hold.

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲?
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𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘮𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘧𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨. 𝘎𝘰 𝘵𝘰 𝘮𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘬 "𝘑𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺".

𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘫𝘶𝘯𝘬.

𝘞𝘦 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦.
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06/04/2026

I invested in a $560,000 15-unit apartment.

I invested in a $540,000 11-unit apartment.

I invested in a $340,000 4-unit apartment.

I invested in a $240,000 3-unit apartment.

I invested in each of these assets with my own capital, a JV partner, & local lending relationships.

I invested in these assets before I ever raised capital.

Here are 3 lessons I’m happy I learned before raising capital from passive investors:

1) Trust, but verify what the listing broker & owner tells you.
• For the 3-unit apartment I mentioned above,
• I was told the property was 100% occupied.
• We toured the deal, & it looked that way.
• However,
• After we closed on the project,
• & began to ask for rent…
• No one was there to provide a check.
• So instead of 100% occupied,
• We were 67% occupied.
• If we had done more digging on the rent payments.
• We would have identified the issue.

2) Larger properties are better investments than small ones.
• With a 3-unit, 1 missing tenant is 33% of revenue.
• For a 32-unit property, that’s 3% of revenue.
• Buying small taught me it’s better to buy large!

3) Have a 3rd party check out your properties.
• Before I raised capital, I lived about an hour from my deals.
• That was still a long way.
• So I paid a friend who lived nearby to check out the properties.
• This friend helped us avoid lots of issues.
• So even with syndicated deals I work with today.
• Whether it’s an operating partner, or a friend.
• We have people check out properties.

P.S. Which of the 3 lessons stuck out most to you?

06/03/2026

Donald Bren owns 129,000,000 SF of property.

- 65,000+ apartment units.
- 40+ shopping centers.
- 590+ office buildings.
- 3 golf courses
- 5 Marinas

Even a 97% stake in New York’s MetLife Building.

After over 50 years in business Donald went from $0 to over $18,000,000,000 net worth.

Here’s 3 takeaways I learned from studying Donald Bren:

1) “Don’t be afraid to take risks, for it is in those moments of uncertainty that true growth happens.”

- As an LP, the greatest risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing. Learn what you’re investing in, but eventually, you’ve got to take the leap.

2) “In my opinion, education is the finest gift an individual can give a young person.”

- Whether you’re an 18 year old looking to take on the world or a 53 year old looking to transition to a new venture (the age I bought my first property), education is the answer.

3) “I really don’t think in the past... I’m really looking forward.”

- I’ve owned 2 businesses. 1 in software. 1 in real estate. If there’s anything I learned through owning a business it’s spending as little time as possible thinking of the past.

- Analyze what you’ve experienced. Create systems to avoid past mistakes. Create systems to operationalize successes. Move on.

P.S. What takeaway stuck out the post for you?

06/01/2026

I invested in a $540,000 11-unit apartment in 2014.
We sold the property 3-years later for $850,000.
A 3.1X equity multiple. Here’s 2 lessons I learned.

1. Cash reserves will save the day. Every day.

• We ran into a little issue with this apartment.
• Year 1: the roof needs complete replacement.
• This was not in our original plans…
• However,
• We brought extensive reserves to the deal.
• So despite the $100,000 in added cost.
• We were able to 3.1X investor capital.

Limited Partner Lesson 1:
• Cash reserves do add equity to the deal.
• But they are such an important part of the deal.
• If worst comes to worst,
• The team has capital to handle the issue.

2. Be willing to change the original plan.
• Our original plan was to hold the asset for 5+ years.
• Then we received a mailer from another operator.
• They were buying real estate.
• & they wanted to buy our apartment complex.
• They paid above the value of the property
• We didn’t have to involve a broker
• (or take on the fees)
• & we closed the deal in under 90 days.

Limited Partner Lesson 2:
• As an investor, know what your ideal outcome is.
• & if it comes sooner than expected?
• Be willing to move on.

P.S. Are you a limited partner? What type of investments are you looking at in 2026?

05/27/2026

I’ve invested in a $12,500,000 128-unit apartment.

I’ve invested in a $4,800,000 40-unit apartment.

I’ve invested in a $2,400,000 32-unit apartment.

Each of these buildings I acquired alongside general partners, limited partners, & lending relationships.

If you’re considering investing in your first real estate offering, here’s how I’d do it:

First, pick the outcome you want to achieve:
• Are you looking for consistent cash flow?
• Are you looking to multiply your wealth?
• Are you looking to lower your taxes?
• Some combination of all 3?
• Knowing what you want, well help with #2.

2nd, pick just one asset type to research.
• Think multifamily or industrial or hospitality.
• All the asset types build on each other.
• but there are nuances to know.
• Each asset takes time to understand.
• So choose one you will invest in first.
**Align the type of asset with the outcome you want.

3rd, pick just 1-2 markets to research.
• Think Austin, TX or Columbus, OH.

• By choosing 1-2 of each to start out with…
• You focus your energy on an outcome.
• You focus your energy on 1 asset type,
• You focus your energy on 1-2 markets.
• & help you look at the best general partners who invest in that area.

This focus will help you get in the game sooner!

& once you’re in the game, you’ll learn more!

& feel more confidence to expand your knowledge.

P.S. What markets are you looking at investing in?

05/25/2026

I invested in a $1,700,000 32-unit apartment in 2018.
In 2021, we exited for $2,400,000. Despite the success.
I learned a valuable lesson in choosing the right partners.
↳Don’t choose partners with similar skillsets.

I will start the post with this caveat:
• We generated an avg. cash on cash return of 5.5%.
• We returned $1,100,000 of equity to our investors.
• We generated an equity multiple of 1.9X.
• In just over 3 years.

By all means, the investment was a success,
We executed the plan well.
& I’m still friends with the partners today.

However,

We were all engineers by trade.
• We were all great with numbers & underwriting.

But…

We each struggled to bring capital to the deal.
We each lacked operational experience.

Luckily we had enough connections from our previous lives to make the deal work with the capital.

& we worked our way through the operational inexperience.

But despite the success, I learned my lesson.

As an LP, here’s what you can takeaway:
1. Invest with general partners (GPs) that have their set jobs.
• Think asset manager, underwriter, capital raiser, etc.
2. Not only that,
↳but the GPs must have experience in those jobs.

This separation of jobs & experience is critical.

P.S. How much experience do you look for in general partners you invest with?

05/21/2026

I invested in a $3,800,000 96-unit apartment in 2021.

I invested in a $1,700,000 32-unit apartment in 2018.

I invested in each of these properties alongside passive investors, other general partners, & trusted lending relationships.

Here are 2 tips every passive investor should know:

1. Understand what you’re looking for in due diligence.
- Missing a single due diligence item can kill a deal.
- When you are investing with inexperienced GPs,
- Be sure to understand their diligence process.
- Is it a standardized diligence process?
- Or
- Are they just hoping for the best?

LESSON:
- Hope is not a strategy. Preparation is.

2. Understand the inherent risk debt introduces.
- This variable in real estate isn’t talked about enough.
- Debt introduces inherent risks by just using it.
- Added costs. Less flexibility. Less power.
- As a passive investor.
- There’s more to debt than simple a % point.
- Understand the impact of debt on the risk.
- & invest accordingly.

LESSON:
- Debt isn’t just a % on an excel sheet.

𝗣.𝗦. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗽 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁?

02/23/2026

Most investors look at deals.
I look at the numbers behind the story.

An 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 isn’t just a spreadsheet — it’s the filter that tells me if a deal deserves investor capital or not.

If the numbers don’t make sense on paper, they won’t magically work in real life.

𝗪𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗜 𝘀𝗮𝘆 𝘆𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝗹? 👀
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John Todderud - Cardinal Oak Investments

06/22/2026

06/17/2026

06/15/2026

06/04/2026

06/03/2026

06/01/2026

05/27/2026

05/25/2026

05/21/2026

02/23/2026

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