12/21/2021
Aaaaaaand we’re back! Some big changes have happened and some big changes are coming. The Fed is back peddling on promises made to stimulate the economy, supply chain bottlenecks along with limited labor force causing high inflation across all industries, interest rates set to hike up and foreclosures about to get rock n rolling. Where are we and where are we headed? I’m glad you asked…. Even if you didn’t know you asked.
The broad strokes then. 2021 Has come to a close. It’s been a wild ride according to the media and social media platform influencers but I think all in all, if you look at what shifts have occurred over the last 12 months, not much has changed since 2020. We still have our Corona hangover going on. We still have artificial tools propping up the economy. We still have a high unemployment number with rising costs across the board. Wages are still not keeping up with inflation and real estate prices continue to rise even with the slightest of upticks in mortgage interest rates.
Problems Bro
Many facets of the economy look like they’re doing just fine as most of the “normal” life activities have returned such as full capacity restaurants, concerts, large social gatherings, mask mandates being lifted in many locations etc. The problem is that the underlying problems that were building in 2018 and 2019 are still there. I’ve been writing about these problems since the end of 2018 and was predicting a recession in late 2019 and early 2020. The crash did come and conveniently, COVID 19 was to blame. A repeat of 2008 happened with the Federal Government bailing out the biggest companies to ensure that they didn’t fail, even though bad companies should fail no matter how big they are. These are companies that barely make enough revenue to cover the interest on the debt they’ve accrued or cannot even afford that.
Roughly 9% of the largest companies in the US are considered “zombie” companies. Over 600 that include Macy’s, ExxonMobil, Delta, United, America, and Southwest Airlines, Carnival, Marriott International, Mattel, Transcontinental Realty and more. These companies are the ones who generally have no cash reserves and in the case of the COVID lockdowns imposed by the government, end up firing en masse and cutting back on borrowing while asking for PPE from the Government and end up still laying off employees while cushioning the wallets of their C level members. These companies have been failing for years but they aren’t allowed to fail because of the effect that that would have on the economy which politicians are very careful to make succeed should it not good on them to have a crash. The problem is, we need crashes to refresh the economy so that we can get the bad money and companies out and make way for fresh companies and capital.
You can search the web and or YouTube and find all of the “top” economists, business people, speculators and entrepreneurs discussing and debating their differing talking points but be aware that none of them have the crystal ball that will tell us everything. I can only piece all of the opinions and data together to form my own predictions and pass them along to you, my adoring audience. Like I said, I believe that what we see is the surface of the water which has its ripples and mostly calm appearance but under the surface is our recession and or depression continuing to work through its cycle. The Federal Reserve is attempting to keep the surface from turning into a sudden sinkhole.
Employment
Employees are and have returned to work for the most part but we’re still experiencing a higher unemployment rate than pre pandemic levels. Right now, as of November the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that we are at a 4.2% unemployment level whereas we were sitting at 3.5% before the pandemic hit. Keep in mind that these jobs are not the white collar jobs that provide higher salaries and benefits but rather the jobs that keep you working long work weeks with side hustles and second jobs to make ends meet. This partly due to companies like Amazon building more fulfillments centers and hiring more drivers. Fun factoid, that according to howigotjob.com, Amazon employs over 1.3 million workers as of 2021 which means that Amazon employees almost .04% of all Americans. This is catching up to the Federal Governments 2020 tally of 2.18 million or .07% of all Americans employed.
The additional hiring is great, but I would ask, how many of these hourly employees have a college degree? The lack of salaried white collar jobs hasn’t kept up with the average number of college grads by any stretch of the imagination. This has caused many to gain employment through menial jobs such as bartending, land scaping, stocking shelves or becoming entrepreneurs. With the closing of major colleges across the US in 2020 and 2021, the total student loan debt bubbles has increased from $1.56T to $1.59T in 2021. Let me write that out…. $1,590,000,000,000 is what is owed by people making an average salary of around $50,000 starting out IF they get that professional career started immediately while that majority who had to resort to non-skilled hourly work are bringing in around $24,000 annually according to ZipRecruiter. For those who picked up a skilled trade or professional certifications, the outlook is actually pretty good. Being super specified in a field that requires people knowing they are doing to support the structure of businesses is a very invaluable trait to possess.
While folks will do what they need to do to get by and make something better for themselves, it is still very hard to do because of the rise in cost of living and the fact that lifestyle creep usually will trick people into not building their wealth, just increasing their debt.
Interest Rates
Interest rates set by the Fed are hovering at the 1 – 1.25% mark as of March 2020. This is keeping corporate borrowing high and helping lenders throw out large loans to people looking to buy. This has partially led to the increase in the costs of real estate, cars, boats etc. The more cheap money you can borrow, the more objects you’ll buy, right?
Jerome Powell stated that interest rates will be raised in 2022 by at least .75%. This is not set in stone as many expect the Fed to back pedal if it looks like investors (market movers) will get spooked too much and cause a stock market crash. And yes, the stock market is still artificially inflated. The reason for the interest rate hikes will come because of the record setting inflation that we’ve experienced over the last year. The way we combat the inflation is to raise base interest rates. The Fed can’t raise the interest rates very much because this reduced inflation will make it harder for the Federal Government to pay down its debt. Inflation makes that national debt cheaper to pay. The current debt to pay down is $28.43 trillion by the way. Compare that to 2008’s $6.369 Trillion and 1995’s $5.225 Trillion
Inflation
Is it good? Is it Bad? Is it Transitory? The answer to all is perhaps maybe yes-no. A “healthy” inflation goal is set by the Federal Reserve Bank. Even though they aren’t part of the US Government, a bank, nor do they have any reserves. They do regulate our economy by manipulating certain aspects of industry and finance. One such facet is the base interest rate which sets the stage for how the rest of the corporate world borrows and lends their cash. The Fed lends to commercial banks like Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Chase etc and they in turn lend to other businesses and or lenders and borrowers to purchase real estate, cars etc. Referring back to the “healthy” goal, historically, about 2% inflation over the year is desired. Where do we stand now do you ask?
As of October 2021, we have an inflation rate of 6.8%. Most folks will have seen this cost translate into things like groceries, furniture, cars, real estate, stocks and even commodities like gold and silver. The high inflation is great for those who own assets but is terrible for those who don’t know what an asset is. Some folks think that their car is an asset. They’d be wrong. An asset is something that makes you money whether through inflation or passive income. Cars just depreciate in value. Compare this inflation to the deflation we experienced in 2009 after the 2008 financial bubble burst. From March 2009 to October 2009 we saw negative inflation ranging from -.2% to -2.1%. Things became very cheap and between 2010 and 2014 real estate was very cheap which caused investors with money to swoop in and acquire assets. As they did, the prices of real estate rose as homes became nicer and new constructions were still scarce. Nowadays, new construction costs are through the roof which in turn is causing new construction sales prices to be inflated to a point where affordable new housing is almost non existent. Now here is where things get interesting with the Fed’s rate hike promises for next year.
In the 1970’s inflation was running rampant. Inflationary growth ranged from 3.6% up to the peak of 14.8% in March of 1980. The Federal Reserve’s answer to this was to raise interest rates up to 22.36% in 1981. Could you imagine trying to get a loan for a house back then? No thanks. We’re nowhere near those high inflation numbers of the 70’s but we are at a higher national debt, higher consumer debt, and have a greater number of businesses barely hanging on by their p***s. If rates are hiked, prices on everything will fall but investors will likely get spooked and cause a major stock market crash that will inevitably bankrupt many big businesses therefore causing another high unemployment surge which will bring less people to the retail market to buy consumer goods and real estate. This could cause many who purchased real estate in the last 5 to 10 years to be upside down in their mortgages should the real estate bubbles in their areas burst. All in all, I would say that inflation is a double edged sword. Or that family member or friend that can really help you out sometimes but they get out of hand, they can be a real dick to everyone.
Foreclosures
Now we come to the question of real estate foreclosures. I think we can all agree that COVID did some bad things for homeowners by way of government intervention. I wouldn’t say it helped anyone because folks who could barely afford to hang on before COVID were temporarily saved from being thrown out of their homes but the moratoriums didn’t do much to help these folks find the money they needed to stay current on their bills. Forcing people to stay home and paying them to do so opened doors that are hard to shut. Many people took advantage of the moratoriums to stay in their homes rent or mortgage free for almost 2 years while being able to work and collect stimulus and unemployment checks when they didn’t need them. I’m sure you’ve seen several instances of people taking the PPE loans to buy $47,000 worth of Pokemon cards and the like. A lot of those people either decided that they’d cross the bridge when they came to it or would just start paying again then the moratoriums were lifted and add those missed payments onto the end of their mortgages.
Here is what the foreclosure scene looks like in MD. Up until June 2021, foreclosures were suspended. Starting in July, the Maryland Department of Labor recorded 818 Letter of Intent to foreclose and 62 Notice of Foreclosure notices. Not bad right? Well, in August, the number of LOI jumped to 1,377 and the NOF number jumped to 127. September saw 2,936 and 200 while October saw 3,246 and 259. Novembers latest numbers show another 2,967 LOIs and 344 NOFs. That’s almost 1,000 foreclosure notices sent out in the last half of 2021. We expect those numbers to keep pace and get worse as inflation continues to make it harder to put food on the table, gas in the car and electricity on. People will be asking themselves whether food or shelter is more important. You can get away for several months or years without paying for your home but only a few days without food.
Recession or Depression?
Now, you know where I stand. I think we’re standing on a frozen lake thinking everything is solid. If you look down, you can see through the hazy ice that there is some dark, possibly troubled waters. But we’re protected by a nice sturdy sheet of ice, right? I think we’re just being artificially held above the dark waters that wait to swallow us up. Now, I like many others are swimmers. So if we break through the protective barrier created by the Fed, we will get wet. We will get cold and it will suck. But we’ll get out, dry ourselves off and start working on another way to cross the pond.
A recession is classified as 2 consecutive quarters of no or negative GDP growth. A depression is classified as a period of sustained, long term downturn in economic activity. This includes abnormally large increases in employment (check), fall in the availability of credit (check), shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production and investment (check), high volatile relative currency fluctuations (the dollar is going crazy, check). How many bubbles are we in that could be the final straw to break the camels back and make people wake up to what’s going on? Let’s count…. The real estate bubble, the car bubble, the stock bubble, the credit bubble, student debt bubble, national debt bubble, supply chain bubble and commodities bubble etc etc.
I would really like to say that America is like, you know, immune to downturns. Unfortunately, this is not the case. The US financial system has been corrupted and rotted from the inside. We are connected to economies all over the world who have also been corrupted. When the world suffers, the US suffers as well. We as people cannot lose focus of what makes us viable as a nation. Don’t believe the hype. It is okay to live below your means. It’s okay not to keep up with the Jones’. If our economy crashes hard, we will recover. Not as well as we could if the government wasn’t totally involved in taking care of everyone every time we get a boo boo. However, our foundations as a society and our Capitalist system, as long as we stay true to that, will bring us back to prosperity as a whole. There will always be the haves and the have nots. This is something we must accept. We should not accept everything the haves tell us as fact but neither should we question every nuance of our existence in a world of inequality.
I hope I didn’t DEPRESS anyone. On the contrary, I hope I put together enough information coherently for you to make informed decisions for your own personal financial well being. Have a happy holiday and see you next year!
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Steve Rogers
Realtor - OICP - CMRS - REO Specialist - Investor
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