02/03/2026
Groundhog Day: Is the 2026 market going to be a repeat of 2025?
Let’s talk about the 2026 market that’s not just opinions or headlines.
Here’s the actual data for single family homes from the Connecticut SmartMLS.
I work primarily with busy professionals and growing families in Connecticut, so I track the market every single day and here is what happened in January.
Both New Haven and Fairfield saw a BIG drop in new listings.
New Haven is down about 26% from Jan 2025, and Fairfield is down about 28%. That tells me inventory is still tight, even in a year where NAR is forecasting the national inventory to loosen.
Median Prices compared to last January’s figures also rose in both counties …. New Haven’s median sales prices were up about 10% and Fairfield was up about 16%.
There was one area where we saw the counties split….New Haven’s closed sales were basically flat while Fairfield Counties closed sales dropped about 16%.
So what does all of this mean ….
First, listening to ‘national headline’ news about the 2026 real estate market is not going to help you. the real estate markets have become HYPER local and historically, Connecticut sees more consistent level of demand for homes.
What this means for you is simple…
The people who will win this year, are making decisions based on what is happening in their specific town and price point … not what’s happening in Florida, Texas, or California.
Don”t get stuck in your very own “Groundhog Day”… If you want to understand how this data applies specifically to your town, that’s the work I do every day. DM me or comment MARKET below and I’ll send you the latest data for your town