03/15/2023
Every morning I read different economic and housing reports, it helps me understand where the markets are going. I'd like to share one of them with you, which I find quite interesting! We've had an unexpected turn to the financial markets and it looks it will help the Mortgage Interest Rates...We are all struggling right now and no one likes hearing bad news, but being aware of how the markets work can help you maneuver how you make your financial decisions =)
Daily Commentary
Pricing this morning should be much better than yesterday, as pricing reacts to market sentiment that the Fed will have to pause hiking rates. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, anytime we see a strong open like today we need to be cautious. The outlook is very foggy at the moment folks, and is changing day to day (and within the day). Like forecasting the landfall of a hurricane, variables are constantly changing and markets are wishy-washy. Remember that during volatility like this, it's not about getting the "best" rate and locking on the "best" day... its about protecting your pipeline (clients). There is NO SHAME in having locked loans when the conditions were pointing to it, or when we can't be sure what is coming next.
We are seeing some pretty significant swings in pricing this week, caused by wishy-washy markets reacting to the latest news. Today that works to our favor, with pricing set to improve because of unexpectedly lower producer prices (meaning wholesale inflation is going down) as well as falling retail sales (consumers are spending less, helping to reduce conditions for inflation). Economic data in February showing a strong labor market and a resilient economy was what pushed rates back up into the 7's, since it meant the Fed was likely to follow through on threats of raising its rate higher in 2023. The first week of March markets were pricing in a rate of 5.75 or even 6% before the Fed would stop hiking. This was a lot higher than January's belief of 4.75. However, now markets are speculating that the Fed will have to cut rates significantly by the end of the year.
We are seeing very volatile swings in sentiment now from traders on where the Fed rate will be through 2023. When we get data or other variables that lead markets to believe the Fed will have to lower rates in 2023, this helps mortgage rates drop. However, whenever we get data or other variables that make markets think the Fed is more likely to raise rates or keep them higher for a longer period of time, this hurts mortgage rates. The swings we are seeing now, as I said above, are severe... and that is going to make rate sheets rocky. I am VERY concerned about next week's Fed meeting. Depending on how it plays out, we could see rates fall to the lowest levels of 2023, or jump to much worse levels. There is no way to forecast what will happen on this one folks, especially since the Fed is under its blackout period before the meeting and is not able to provide guidance on what members think after the banking "crisis".
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