12/03/2025
Redfin’s 2026 Housing Predictions — The Great Housing Reset (Short Version)
2026 will mark the start of a slow, steady housing market recovery.
Affordability will gradually improve as wages finally grow faster than home prices for the first time since the Great Recession.
Here are the key takeaways:
Mortgage rates will dip to the low-6% range on average (around 6.3%), giving buyers slight relief.
Home prices will rise only about 1%, while wages grow faster — helping affordability inch forward.
Home sales will increase about 3% as slightly better affordability brings some buyers back.
Rents will rise 2–3% because apartment supply is shrinking while demand grows.
High housing costs will reshape families — more roommates, more multigenerational living, fewer babies, and more people combining finances to buy homes.
Policymakers will focus heavily on affordability, promoting zoning reform, ADUs, and manufactured housing.
More homeowners will refinance and remodel, using their strong equity as mortgage rates ease slightly.
Hot markets: NYC suburbs & Great Lakes states.
Cooling markets: parts of coastal Florida & Texas due to insurance costs and climate risk.
Climate migration goes local — people relocate within the same city to less vulnerable neighborhoods.
MLS systems will consolidate as NAR steps back and regional MLSs gain more control.
AI will reshape real estate, helping buyers match with homes and helping agents identify leads and ideal listings more efficiently.
Overall:
No crash. No rapid price drop. Instead, a slow reset where affordability improves over several years.
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