10/08/2026
When I listen to podcasts or watch the news, I hear a lot about declining home values. For some states and specific areas within states, that is entirely true. When I provide market updates, I like to keep them local to keep my clients properly informed. However, it's helpful to look at data in other markets are compare them to our market in order to establish a rationale on why home values are where they are. Truth is, it's just fun for me to look at data. This is a dry read for most people, but for others... Enjoy!
I have friends/clients in Florida, Colorado, and Arizona who are struggling to sell their homes or selling for a price below expectations, which partially inspired this post. But in Illinois, our home values have continued to rise. How is that possible?
Without going down too big of a rabbit hole, the best explanation points to demand vs. inventory. For an example, according to the Census Bureau, Florida’s net domestic migration fell from roughly 311,000 in 2022 to 23,000 in 2025. I did not forget a zero, those are the real numbers. At the same time, Flordia residence were faced with increased insurance costs due to hurricanes, coupled with increasing interest rates. In a nut shell, ownership costs increased, while demand decreased due to the increase in ownership costs. For markets like Cape Coral, Flordia, the decrease in willing and able buyers results in downward pressure on home values. This is a very simplified explanation and I can dig deeper if you want to discuss it more individually. Or else this already long post will be a novel.
If you're still following me, then let's look at the current monthly supply data and number of homes for sale. (Months of supply estimates how long available inventory would take to sell at the prevailing sales pace, assuming no additional listings.)
Flordia month supply = 6 months.
Illinois month supply = 3 months (actually 1.9 in our market according MRED).
Homes for sale in Flordia: 206,508
Homes for sale in Illinois: 45,772
Homes sold above asking price Flordia : 10.9%
Homes sold above asking price Illinois: 35.8%
So what's the point? The point is I have been hearing for many years now that our housing market is going to tank. This post is not to make any sort of prediction and what's going to happen next. It's simply my explanation on why I believe we have not seen home values decline in Illinois up to this point. We have experienced the exact opposite. In summary, Illinois housing inventory is extremely low, however people still need/want to buy homes so demand remains high (at least higher than the supply). And what's the first rule of economics? Scarcity. When demand is high and supply is low, prices rise.
That's enough fun for this post. I post monthly market updates on our website if you'd like to keep up with local real estate news. If you'd like early access and have updates sent directly to you, sign up through the link below:
https://www.riferealty.com/blog/market-update-october-2026
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Rife Realty
Median sale price $348,000 in September, homes for sale down to 17,907, the 30-year rate at 7.28%, and why low inventory keeps prices rising.